Castillo or Taillon?

[DanK]

Taillon: .160 BABIP, 96% strand, 8% swstr, 53% F-Strike
Castillo: .281 BABIP, 51% strand, 15% swstr, 62% F-Strike

Not only do I take Castillo, but I might try selling Taillon. I don't see anything in Taillon's velocity, movement, or pitch selection that tells me he's any different from prior years -- which is still a decent pitcher. I just don't see that he's taken the next step.

[The Dane]

Dane,

Apologies for the accidental delete. I meant to reply with quote.


Mods please take my edit functionality away.

[cavebird]

Taillon: .160 BABIP, 96% strand, 8% swstr, 53% F-Strike
Castillo: .281 BABIP, 51% strand, 15% swstr, 62% F-Strike

Not only do I take Castillo, but I might try selling Taillon. I don't see anything in Taillon's velocity, movement, or pitch selection that tells me he's any different from prior years -- which is still a decent pitcher. I just don't see that he's taken the next step.

Taillon's GB% is way up (to 58%), and his hard contact rate is very low (19.6%). Both are improvements from prior years and both are way better than Castillo. Also, unlike Castillo, Taillon's velocity isn't down 2 mph from last year.

[cavebird]

And don't get me wrong---Taillon was never an ERA under 1 guy. His numbers normalized tonight; a HR to normalize the HR/FB rate, and then loading the bases without any hard contact, and then three runs scoring on a single. Once Castillo's numbers normalize, they'll both be similar.

[Sharky]

And don't get me wrong---Taillon was never an ERA under 1 guy. His numbers normalized tonight; a HR to normalize the HR/FB rate, and then loading the bases without any hard contact, and then three runs scoring on a single. Once Castillo's numbers normalize, they'll both be similar.

And if so, that makes Castillo a good buy low guy in theory. Maybe not sell high on Taillon, but hold.

[cavebird]

Sounds right. FWIW, one stat that is deceptive is that Taillon even previously is among the league leaders in called strikes/strikeouts, so he, if this is a skill (and it likely is due to the fact it is all from one pitch, the curve) then he will naturally have a higher K rate with a lower swinging strike rate.

[Ken]

Well, I was clearly wrong to buy in on Taillon's hot start!!