Castillo or Taillon?

[Falcon]

Have been exchanging trade offers with another owner in my 10-team, 5x5, dynasty league. Big hiccup has been schism over perceived values of Luis Castillo vs. J. Taillon. I believe Castillo is worth far more, while other owner believes the opposite.

Wanted to get some opinions from the Pen as to whom of the two might be more valuable. Thoughts?

[Gregg]

You would be correct. Castillo is far more valuable than Taillon.

Whats not to like about a 25 year old that has a 97-100mph fastball to go with 2 other plus pitches.

If Castillo is the sweetener to get the main trade and Taillon is the throw in to make it even, it better be a pretty big fish on the front end.

[Ken]

I think that may be an over-generalization.

In fact, it might be best to look at the opposite viewpoint to start with.

Fangraphs and rotochamp prefer Taillon. Razzball has them valued similarly.

What is the basis for Castillo being significantly more valuable? Be careful looking only at Castillo's ERA, his FIP was actually a quarter run higher than Taillon's last year (not to mention Taillon's 2016 stats).

I think Castillo is "shiny new toy", when in reality they are pretty similarly valued pitchers in fantasy.

[joncarlos]

Big Castillo fan, but I also like Taillon. He was a mess last year but if he's healthy and strong, I think he can be closer than we think.

[Ken]

Big Castillo fan, but I also like Taillon. He was a mess last year but if he's healthy and strong, I think he can be closer than we think.

I'm basically in the same boat.

I also give Taillon some credit for the whole beating testicular cancer aspect of his 2017 season.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, I like Castillo a lot, but anyone who says he is way better than Taillon i selling Taillon short. Taillon should be better this year for a variety of reasons. I like them both. I do like Castillo a bit more, just because I think he carries a little less risk. But it wouldn't surprise me if Taillon ended up having a better 2018 and/or career.

[Gregg]

I think that may be an over-generalization.

In fact, it might be best to look at the opposite viewpoint to start with.

Fangraphs and rotochamp prefer Taillon. Razzball has them valued similarly.

What is the basis for Castillo being significantly more valuable? Be careful looking only at Castillo's ERA, his FIP was actually a quarter run higher than Taillon's

I think I answered that with this (in my first post):


Whats not to like about a 25 year old that has a 97-100mph fastball to go with 2 other plus pitches.

[Gregg]

Yeah, I like Castillo a lot, but anyone who says he is way better than Taillon i selling Taillon short. Taillon should be better this year for a variety of reasons. I like them both. I do like Castillo a bit more, just because I think he carries a little less risk. But it wouldn't surprise me if Taillon ended up having a better 2018 and/or career.

I'm your Huckleberry.

First you say Taillon should be better this year for a variety of reasons. What reasons? Then you state you like Castillo a bit more because he carries less risk. Which is it?

For 2018 I like Castillo for the reasons I stated.

I did not say I do not like Taillon I much prefer Castillo.

[BigJonEmpire]

I'm your Huckleberry.

First you say Taillon should be better this year for a variety of reasons. What reasons? Then you state you like Castillo a bit more because he carries less risk. Which is it?

For 2018 I like Castillo for the reasons I stated.

I did not say I do not like Taillon I much prefer Castillo.

I thought he meant better than last year.

[Sour Masher]

I'm your Huckleberry.

First you say Taillon should be better this year for a variety of reasons. What reasons? Then you state you like Castillo a bit more because he carries less risk. Which is it?

For 2018 I like Castillo for the reasons I stated.

I did not say I do not like Taillon I much prefer Castillo.

As BigJonEmpire indicated, I meant to suggest that Taillon should be better this year than he was last year. I did not mean to suggest that he should be better than Castillo this year, although I now see how I wasn't as clear as I could have been with that point. As far as why I think Taillon will improve, as others have stated, he dealt with serious health and psychological issues last year, he was also a bit unlucky, and showed flashes of better stuff than his overall numbers indicate. The bottom line is I think he is better than his 2017 stats, and because of that, I think his 2018 stats have a good chance of being close to Castillo's, who I also like a lot, and in fact think is both a bit better and a little less risky than Taillon. In an open draft, I take Castillo ahead of Taillon. I'm not arguing against Castillo at all. What I'm arguing is that it is closer than you and the OP are suggesting, because Taillon is also good and also has a lot of upside.

[Sour Masher]

I think I answered that with this (in my first post):


Whats not to like about a 25 year old that has a 97-100mph fastball to go with 2 other plus pitches.

Not much not to like, that we agree on. If I wanted to pick one nit in relation to this comparison, Taillon calls a pitchers park home, and Castillo calls a hitters park home. That isn't a critique of Castillo, of course, but it is a small point in Taillon's favor. Again, I like Castillo--I own him in one of my two leagues, and have tried to get him for months in the other. But I also like Taillon and I think he is in the same tier production-wise for 2018 (assuming health, which is also an assumption with pitchers). Time will tell, I suppose.

[Gregg]

As BigJonEmpire indicated, I meant to suggest that Taillon should be better this year than he was last year. I did not mean to suggest that he should be better than Castillo this year, although I now see how I wasn't as clear as I could have been with that point. As far as why I think Taillon will improve, as others have stated, he dealt with serious health and psychological issues last year, he was also a bit unlucky, and showed flashes of better stuff than his overall numbers indicate. The bottom line is I think he is better than his 2017 stats, and because of that, I think his 2018 stats have a good chance of being close to Castillo's, who I also like a lot, and in fact think is both a bit better and a little less risky than Taillon. In an open draft, I take Castillo ahead of Taillon. I'm not arguing against Castillo at all. What I'm arguing is that it is closer than you and the OP are suggesting, because Taillon is also good and also has a lot of upside.

Thanks for the clarification.

And to be sure. I do believe Taillon will be better than last year. Health and whip have to be of some concern.

Taillon is a $15B contract in my NL only. Castillo is 12 and done.

With 12 teams I do not like either of them at their prices.

[Ken]

With 12 teams I do not either of them at their prices.

Can you clarify, are you saying you don't think either one will be kept, or should be kept, or you do not like either one?

[Gregg]

Can you clarify, are you saying you don't think either one will be kept, or should be kept, or you do not like either one?

Actually both. I fixed/added not like in my post. It is the combination of contract status and prices that I do not like.

Both are on the trading block and have been for at least a week. They are on different teams. Taillon has to be played out or given a raise at $5 per year. I think he will get tossed back and rebid. I can't see him going for more than $15.

Castillo is done this year. I am hoping the rebuilding owner puts him back with the idea of rebidding and getting that new contract. He is one of the best players I have ever played against. I think he is gauging interest. He is at the top of his value so it is hard for me to trade for him. If he was an A contract going to B, I would probably try to get him.

[Ken]

Actually both. I fixed/added not like in my post. It is the combination of contract status and prices that I do not like.

Both are on the trading block and have been for at least a week. They are on different teams. Taillon has to be played out or given a raise at $5 per year. I think he will get tossed back and rebid. I can't see him going for more than $15.

Castillo is done this year. I am hoping the rebuilding owner puts him back with the idea of rebidding and getting that new contract. He is one of the best players I have ever played against. I think he is gauging interest. He is at the top of his value so it is hard for me to trade for him. If he was an A contract going to B, I would probably try to get him.

Thank you for the clarification!

I'm a little confused now though, for another reason.

It seems like you are saying here that Castillo is at the top of his value for $12, and that you can't see Taillon going for more than $15 here.

But at the same time you've said that Castillo is significantly more valuable.

It's hard to reconcile those. I would have expected that you would have valued them significantly differently.

What tier range do you personally have each of them valued at now that we are getting specific? Castillo $8-$12, and Taillon... where exactly? To match up with previous comments it seems like you must have him very low, $2-5?