2K18 Luke Weaver

[Gregg]

What are your thoughts on Weaver this year?

[chancellor]

What are your thoughts on Weaver this year?

Something between good and studly.

Positives: He has very good stuff and knows how to use it. Has a strong ground ball lean. Owned LH batters. Advanced pitching metrics - xERA, BABIP, strand rate - all support baselines put up last year.
Negatives: I'm not sure what the advanced metrics say, but I'm not sold on the Cards defense as it sets up right now. And that bullpen has the potential to be toxic to wins.

[revo]

FYI, BBHQ loves him. They had huge 2017 projections, and while they were off the mark, it seemed to be only because of playing time. They’re equally huge on him for 2018.

[Sour Masher]

I agree he has talent, but he hasn't shown durability and stamina yet. Maybe this is the year he does, but I expect him to cost more than he should as many focus on his talent rather than the legit concerns about his ability to come even close to 200 innings without breaking down or fading late.

Recent reports are of him bulking up a bit and working to build stamina, but his next season over 140 innings will be his first, in the majors or minors, so I think you have to temper break out expectations against the probability that he fails to top 180 innings.

[Gregg]

Luke Weaver was picked up in the first round of our reserve draft (after the auction). This means he is free until activated then his salary becomes 15.He was activated last year.

He was dropped in our Winter roster cut down (NL only). He passed through waivers until he got to me. I decided to take flier on him in the hopes of trading him for a draft pick upgrade. I was offered a first round (4th overall) reserve pick. I took it. I was able to turn my own first round pick (11th overall) and Familia $12 into a $30 Freeman.

So Familia (and a no cost Weaver who I wouldn't keep) for Freeman and a 7 position upgrade in the reserve draft. Woo hoo.

[Moonlight J]

Derek Carty had some interesting thoughts on Twitter about him. Concerned the extra bulk will be a detriment to him much like it was for Thor this past year. Pitchers adding a lot of bulk in a short time isn't a good thing and he mentioned it was something discussed when he went through scout school a couple of years ago.

[chancellor]

Derek Carty had some interesting thoughts on Twitter about him. Concerned the extra bulk will be a detriment to him much like it was for Thor this past year. Pitchers adding a lot of bulk in a short time isn't a good thing and he mentioned it was something discussed when he went through scout school a couple of years ago.

Concept wise, I get what Derek says, but I'm not sure I line up on this one. From what I've read, Weaver has added only 10-12 pounds. Thor...well, he's tried to really look like THOR. I'm not exactly sure how much muscle weight Thor put on, but Weaver with 10 extra pounds of muscle is still nowhere near the body morphology of Thor.

Sour Masher makes a good point - counting on Weaver for 190+ innings this year is not a good idea. I'd make bank on about 175 innings, 170 Ks, very good to excellent ERA and WHIP, questionable on wins (both due to usage and bullpen).

[Ken]

Sour Masher makes a good point - counting on Weaver for 190+ innings this year is not a good idea. I'd make bank on about 175 innings, 170 Ks, very good to excellent ERA and WHIP, questionable on wins (both due to usage and bullpen).

I'm on board with that concept, but to an even larger extent. Last 2 years have been 120 IP followed by 140 IP.

I'd guess 160 IP, 170K, with a low to mid 3s ERA and a 1.2 WHIP and 10-12 wins.

Completely different pitchers but he can put a Rich Hill type season from a fantasy perspective IMO.

[DMT]

Who would you rather have long-term, Weaver or Castillo?

[Sour Masher]

Who would you rather have long-term, Weaver or Castillo?

I like them both, and part of me wants to go with Weaver, as I tend to go with the better home park when players are close. But I'd go with Castillo. Both have pitching talent, but Castillo has a little better stuff, so has a higher ceiling.

[harmon]

I like them both, and part of me wants to go with Weaver, as I tend to go with the better home park when players are close. But I'd go with Castillo. Both have pitching talent, but Castillo has a little better stuff, so has a higher ceiling.

Agree, but both should be very good. Castillo has the higher upside and appears likely to get there soon with his electric arm.

[chancellor]

Who would you rather have long-term, Weaver or Castillo?

Weaver for me. Favorable park, favorable division, incredibly solid floor. Longer term, I think the Cards get their bullpen in order, too.

Mind you, I'd be happy with either.