2K19: Closer and Bullpen

[Gregg]

Last night, the Cardinals went with Hicks instead of Norris. Norris had pitched the two previous nights and was atrocious the night before, so maybe they were just giving him a breather. However, Hicks had also pitched the two previous nights. I see some more closer unrest in St. Louis.

At the end of May, Hicks changed his pitch mix to try and augment his 100+ MPH fastball. Since then, Ks are up and BBs are down. He's a kid and these are the Cardinals, so I'm not saying they're about to hand him the keys to the ninth inning or anything, but it appears that he's being groomed. He was aggressively promoted to the majors. He's been put into higher leverage situations as the year has gone on, and now with Disabled List attrition, he and Norris are kind of the last men standing.

If there's a save situation tonight, it'll go to Norris, undoubtedly. Whatever happens then will provide another data point.

With Holland and Norris on one year deals, Is Hicks a lock for the closer role next year?

[mjl]

With Holland and Norris on one year deals, Is Hicks a lock for the closer role next year?

Absolutely. St. Louis isn't the kind of team to sign a reliever on a one-year deal to be the closer.

[DMT]

Absolutely. St. Louis isn't the kind of team to sign a reliever on a one-year deal to be the closer.

Is this a joke?

[mjl]

Certainly not. Can you think of a time that St. Louis has signed a guy on a one-year deal to be the closer, and when he didn't work out, they went to a different guy on a one-year contract? It just wouldn't happen.

[DMT]

Certainly not. Can you think of a time that St. Louis has signed a guy on a one-year deal to be the closer, and when he didn't work out, they went to a different guy on a one-year contract? It just wouldn't happen.

Your statement was, "St. Louis isn't the kind of team to sign a reliever on a one-year deal to be the closer." They just signed Holland to a one-year deal to be the closer a couple months ago.

[mjl]

sure, but they didn't go to a different guy on a one-year contract when he failed, did they?

[The Dane]

Far be it from me to claim to know what's going on in anyone's head, especially an MLB GM, but St. Louis is a team with plan. They may not always win, or always do things the way us fantasy players might do them, but they have a clue and they often do the thing that makes sense.

The sequence of relevant events, as I see them:

2016-18- Hicks throws VERY hard, but he's shown a little more than just being a thrower in the minors. He's starting, but has elite reliever written all over him.

March 29- Then, he makes the team out of Spring Training. As someone who has been watching him for a couple of years, I was blown away by this. I mean, he didn't just skip AAA, he skipped AA! He wasn't called upon to start when Wainwright went down, or then anyone else after that, so he's a bullpen guy in their mind. Their bullpen is not great, and has room for a guy to step up.

They sign Holland on a one-year deal on the same day. If he works out, they give Hicks (or anyone else in the system) a chance to grow into the role. They have an older, "reliable" option in Gregerson, and another young guy who might step up in Leone. With Holland, a plan for a working pen shapes up.

April/May- While Holland is stinking to high heaven, they increase Hicks' high-leverage innings, a product of both his success and tons of injuries.

Late May- Hicks tinkers with his pitch mix and he starts to look elite, albeit for only a short while, so far. Holland is probably done. Gregerson, Lyons, Leone and Bowman are all on the DL. Norris is serviceable, but shaky.


This sequence of events tell me these things:

1) Hicks is clearly in their plans and has been since before the season began. He's only 21, and was very aggressively promoted and, at this point, is heavily-relied upon for someone so young. And he's isn't stinking. In fact, he's showing gradual improvement.

2) The Cardinals don't like to use kids like this, but injuries are forcing their hand and Hicks seems to be standing up to the pressure.

3) The Cardinals will ride Norris until he just can't do it anymore. His leash is long. Hicks may get a nibble here and there to spell Norris, but there is no way they want a 21-year old closer. That's just not how they do things.

4) I doubt the Cardinals are thinking Hicks is definitely their closer in 2019. At this point, they'll play them as they lay. If Hicks continues his current trajectory, he'll be an elite stopper by the end of the year. If he has some stumbles or injuries (likely for both kids and pitchers), he likely begins 2019 as a set-up man and keeps working.

If I was putting money on it, I'd say Hicks will get no more than 10 saves between the rest of 2018 and 2019, but after that, the ceiling is pretty high. That said, he throws the fastest pitch in all of baseball. If he figures stuff out and stays healthy, anything can happen. That's why I own him in all of my leagues. He's interesting.

[rhd]

...That said, he throws the fastest pitch in all of baseball...

When I read this, I thought that this wasnt true (it's Chapman, right?). So I looked it up and turns out that Hicks' avg FB this year is 101.3. That's not only faster than Chapman this year (99.5) but faster than in any year (101.2 was his fastest avg FB, in 2014 and in 2016).

[Judge Jude]

as happened with Betances (who subsequently faded), there is no incentive for a team to let a very young RP be the closer. he racks up SVs because he is good - then when he hits arbitration time, he becomes too expensive.

unless MLB has fixed that glitch, better to use Hicks before the 9th for years....

[chancellor]

With Holland and Norris on one year deals, Is Hicks a lock for the closer role next year?

He's certainly not a lock, but I'm more optimistic than others who have posted here. The Cards have no issue with handing the closer role to a young pitcher with dominant stuff after a year of experience in the bullpen (see Trevor Rosenthal), so that's the plus side for your thought. OTOH, I don't see Hicks anywhere near as polished as Rosenthal, both in terms of stuff and makeup.

And the Cards options aren't all together that great. Holland might get better by the end of the year, but then they'll have to re-sign him, Norris will be looking for at least a two-year deal if he continues to close successfully, Leone...blech. And I don't get the impression that the Cards plan is to spend major dollars and time on an "established" closer.

So I'd go with a "strong maybe".

[Gregg]

Far be it from me to claim to know what's going on in anyone's head, especially an MLB GM, but St. Louis is a team with plan. They may not always win, or always do things the way us fantasy players might do them, but they have a clue and they often do the thing that makes sense.

The sequence of relevant events, as I see them:

2016-18- Hicks throws VERY hard, but he's shown a little more than just being a thrower in the minors. He's starting, but has elite reliever written all over him.

March 29- Then, he makes the team out of Spring Training. As someone who has been watching him for a couple of years, I was blown away by this. I mean, he didn't just skip AAA, he skipped AA! He wasn't called upon to start when Wainwright went down, or then anyone else after that, so he's a bullpen guy in their mind. Their bullpen is not great, and has room for a guy to step up.

They sign Holland on a one-year deal on the same day. If he works out, they give Hicks (or anyone else in the system) a chance to grow into the role. They have an older, "reliable" option in Gregerson, and another young guy who might step up in Leone. With Holland, a plan for a working pen shapes up.

April/May- While Holland is stinking to high heaven, they increase Hicks' high-leverage innings, a product of both his success and tons of injuries.

Late May- Hicks tinkers with his pitch mix and he starts to look elite, albeit for only a short while, so far. Holland is probably done. Gregerson, Lyons, Leone and Bowman are all on the DL. Norris is serviceable, but shaky.


This sequence of events tell me these things:

1) Hicks is clearly in their plans and has been since before the season began. He's only 21, and was very aggressively promoted and, at this point, is heavily-relied upon for someone so young. And he's isn't stinking. In fact, he's showing gradual improvement.

2) The Cardinals don't like to use kids like this, but injuries are forcing their hand and Hicks seems to be standing up to the pressure.

3) The Cardinals will ride Norris until he just can't do it anymore. His leash is long. Hicks may get a nibble here and there to spell Norris, but there is no way they want a 21-year old closer. That's just not how they do things.

4) I doubt the Cardinals are thinking Hicks is definitely their closer in 2019. At this point, they'll play them as they lay. If Hicks continues his current trajectory, he'll be an elite stopper by the end of the year. If he has some stumbles or injuries (likely for both kids and pitchers), he likely begins 2019 as a set-up man and keeps working.

If I was putting money on it, I'd say Hicks will get no more than 10 saves between the rest of 2018 and 2019, but after that, the ceiling is pretty high. That said, he throws the fastest pitch in all of baseball. If he figures stuff out and stays healthy, anything can happen. That's why I own him in all of my leagues. He's interesting.

Great stuff!

One of the owners that is in the hunt for the money is offering an 11FA Hicks to trade for some offense. One of the issues is that by our rules an FA pick up can be kept for the next year at salary, but cannot be extended. So Hicks is 11 and done next year.

I am rebuilding NL only and am trying to decide what if any type of offer I should send. He is not a keeper if he is not a closer. He has an interesting situation as well as some pretty good skills. May be worth the gamble.

[The Dane]

He's certainly not a lock, but I'm more optimistic than others who have posted here. The Cards have no issue with handing the closer role to a young pitcher with dominant stuff after a year of experience in the bullpen (see Trevor Rosenthal), so that's the plus side for your thought. OTOH, I don't see Hicks anywhere near as polished as Rosenthal, both in terms of stuff and makeup.

And the Cards options aren't all together that great. Holland might get better by the end of the year, but then they'll have to re-sign him, Norris will be looking for at least a two-year deal if he continues to close successfully, Leone...blech. And I don't get the impression that the Cards plan is to spend major dollars and time on an "established" closer.

So I'd go with a "strong maybe".

I agree with a lot of this, but my conclusion is a little less bullish. Rosenthal is a good comp. Hicks has higher upside than Rosenthal, but he is WAY less polished. Of course, Rosenthal didn't start closing until he was 24. Hicks is 21 now. And I'm not sure a team like the Cardinals sees Rosenthal's 121 career saves as a successful foray into the world of baby closers. While, they could certainly give Hicks a go --because that's another thing with smart teams, they know a good thing when they see it-- I think it's more likely they resign Norris or give another experienced guy a go.

[YourPalChrisMal]

When I read this, I thought that this wasnt true (it's Chapman, right?). So I looked it up and turns out that Hicks' avg FB this year is 101.3. That's not only faster than Chapman this year (99.5) but faster than in any year (101.2 was his fastest avg FB, in 2014 and in 2016).

His AVERAGE is arguably not even what's most impressive. Go find Statcast "Fastest Pitches" leaderboard. Hicks has thrown 32 of the 50 fastest pitches in the majors this year!!!!! The other 18 out of 50 are Chapman's. On the MLB.com app they actually have a "Chapman Filter" button so you can remove all of Chapman's pitches because looking at that leaderboard prior to 2018 was kind of dumb because the entire leaderboard was all Chapman, so people were more interested in seeing the fastest pitches throw by pitchers OTHER THAN Chapman. They may need to change that to the "Chapman/Hicks Filter" because the entire Top 50 is one or the other, and now is mostly Hicks, not Chapman. It's really quite an amazing understated thing that Hicks is doing this year. Really really impressive.

Oh, and this is hilarious. If you click on the "Chapman Filter" to remove all of Chapman's fastest pitches? 48 out of 50 are Hicks! (The other 2 are Tayron Guerrero of the Marlins.)

[Judge Jude]

I'm more intrigued by tremendous K rates than velocity. the latter is a curiosity, but not as predictive of success.

Hicks was dumb luck in his first month, then much better the second month - but with a higher ERA.

overall, 2.18 ERA, 4.32 xERA, 6.5 per 9 K rate which is subpar for any RP
last 31 days, 3.52 ERA, 2.72 xERA, 10.0 per 9 K rate which is very solid

as noted, he seems to be "learning how to pitch" on the fly, which is a good sign because his surface results in April might lead a dumb team to think all was well in spite of a pitifully low K rate (even if he had average velocity)

[Ken]

I'm more intrigued by tremendous K rates than velocity. the latter is a curiosity, but not as predictive of success.

Hicks was dumb luck in his first month, then much better the second month - but with a higher ERA.

overall, 2.18 ERA, 4.32 xERA, 6.5 per 9 K rate which is subpar for any RP
last 31 days, 3.52 ERA, 2.72 xERA, 10.0 per 9 K rate which is very solid

as noted, he seems to be "learning how to pitch" on the fly, which is a good sign because his surface results in April might lead a dumb team to think all was well in spite of a pitifully low K rate (even if he had average velocity)

Also, just as critical, his BB9 is down to 3.4 the last month after being up at 7.5 in April. It's a small sample size but it looks promising. The real question here is simply whether he's improving and this is truly the new Jordan Hicks going forward - if it is he's solid.