RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Pre-BA Top 100" Version)

[rhd]

OK, the original post from yesterday got deleted in the "Recent Site Weirdness" so I'm re-posting this, below. Sorry about the comments that got deleted but if you want to, post your question again and I'll answer them again.

Surprisingly, BA published their Top 100 list this morning, earliest I can ever recall them doing so. But I havent looked at it yet, so here's my unplanned "pre-BA Top 100" list.

Same spiel as usual: I generally follow BA's prospect eligibility requirements, which are <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP. Unlike BA tho, amateurs, unsigned draftees and foreign players are eligible. Also, while BA has a different IP limit for relievers (30 IP?), relievers are eligible as long as they dont have >50 IP. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), and actual closers are upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

I havent yet but I'll do a Google doc w the list and post the link.

Rank Name Position Org Prev +/-
1 Shohei Otani SP LAA 1 0
2 Ronald Acuna OF Atl 2 0
3 Victor Robles OF Was 3 0
4 Vladimir Guerrero 3B Tor 4 0
5 Eloy Jimenez OF CHW 5 0
6 Gleyber Torres SS NYY 8 2
7 Fernando Tatis SS SD 9 2
8 Kyle Tucker OF Hou 6 -2
9 Brendan Rodgers SS Col 7 -2
10 Austin Hays OF Bal 11 1
11 Bo Bichette SS Tor 12 1
12 Scott Kingery 2B Phi 13 1
13 Nick Senzel 3B Cin 14 1
14 Lewis Brinson OF Mil 17 3
15 Michael Kopech SP CHW 18 3
16 Brent Honeywell SP TB 19 3
17 Alex Reyes SP StL 21 4
18 Willy Adames SS TB 15 -3
19 Taylor Trammell OF Cin 23 4
20 Royce Lewis SS Min 26 6
21 Franklin Barreto 2B Oak 24 3
22 J.P. (John Paul) Crawford SS Phi 39 17
23 Alex Verdugo OF LAD 25 2
24 Anthony Alford OF Tor 27 3
25 Luis Robert OF CHW 34 9
26 Forrest Whitley SP Hou 20 -6
27 Mitch Keller SP Pit 30 3
28 Walker Buehler SP LAD 22 -6
29 Hunter Greene SP Cin 31 2
30 MacKenzie Gore SP SD 47 17
31 A.J. Puk SP Oak 33 2
32 Estevan Florial OF NYY 37 5
33 Leodys Taveras OF Tex 28 -5
34 Michel Baez SP SD 48 14
35 Luiz Gohara SP Atl 32 -3
36 Juan Soto OF Was 46 10
37 Jesus Sanchez OF TB 36 -1
38 Triston McKenzie SP Cle 29 -9
39 Ryan McMahon 1B Col 40 1
40 Willie Calhoun 2B Tex 41 1
41 Jorge Mateo SS Oak 42 1
42 Heliot Ramos OF SF 116 74
43 Jo (Jordon) Adell OF LAA 54 11
44 Francisco Mejia C Cle 43 -1
45 Cal Quantrill SP SD 52 7
46 Franklin Perez SP Det 59 13
47 Mike Soroka SP Atl 53 6
48 Kyle Wright SP Atl 50 2
49 Sixto Sanchez SP Phi 69 20
50 Ian Anderson SP Atl 49 -1
51 Monte Harrison OF Mil 112 61
52 Jahmai Jones OF LAA 111 59
53 Austin Riley 3B Atl 102 49
54 Keston Hiura 2B Mil 92 38
55 Michael Chavis 3B Bos 68 13
56 Alec Hansen SP CHW 76 20
57 Austin Meadows OF Pit 61 4
58 Jake Bauers OF TB 67 9
59 Jesse Winker OF Cin 71 12
60 Miguel Andujar 3B NYY 130 70
61 Kyle Lewis OF Sea 63 2
62 Kevin Maitan SS LAA 51 -11
63 Kolby Allard SP Atl 35 -28
64 Yusniel Diaz OF LAD 84 20
65 Nick Gordon SS Min 62 -3
66 Cristian Pache OF Atl 109 43
67 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B Pit 83 16
68 Brendan McKay 1B TB 65 -3
69 Blake Rutherford OF CHW 44 -25
70 Mickey Moniak OF Phi 45 -25
71 Harrison Bader OF StL 72 1
72 Jack Flaherty SP StL 57 -15
73 Brandon Marsh OF LAA 113 40
74 Wander Javier SS Min NR NA
75 Justus Sheffield SP NYY 80 5
76 Luis Urias 2B SD 74 -2
77 Tyler O'Neill OF StL 85 8
78 Bobby Bradley 1B Cle 66 -12
79 Yordan Alvarez 1B Hou 101 22
80 Tyler Mahle SP Cin 79 -1
81 Brandon Woodruff SP Mil 88 7
82 Chance Adams SP NYY 89 7
83 Adrian Morejon SP SD 56 -27
84 Jason Groome SP Bos 60 -24
85 Anderson Espinoza SP SD 95 10
86 Jon Duplantier SP Ari 123 37
87 Stephen Gonsalves SP Min 90 3
88 Carter Kieboom SS Was 103 15
89 Alex Faedo SP Det 97 8
90 Corey Ray OF Mil 64 -26
91 Trent Grisham (Clark) OF Mil 82 -9
92 Brett Phillips OF Mil 99 7
93 Jose Siri OF Cin NR NA
94 Cole Tucker SS Pit 108 14
95 Garrett Whitley OF TB NR NA
96 Garrett Hampson SS Col NR NA
97 Matt Manning SP Det 91 -6
98 Ryan Mountcastle 3B Bal 100 2
99 Brady Singer SP College NR NA
100 Joey Wentz SP Atl 75 -25
101 Josh Hader RP Mil 98 -3
102 Dylan Cease SP CHW 78 -24
103 Corbin Burnes SP Mil 128 25
104 Jesus Luzardo SP Oak 137 33
105 Chris Shaw 1B SF 110 5
106 Christin Stewart OF Det 86 -20
107 Zack Granite OF Min 81 -26
108 Magneuris Sierra OF Mia 104 -4
109 Mauricio Dubon 2B Mil 105 -4
110 Jeren Kendall OF LAD 87 -23
111 Roman Quinn OF Phi 106 -5
112 Andres Gimenez SS NYM 120 8
113 Colton Welker 3B Col 131 18
114 Beau Burrows SP Det 126 12
115 J.B. Bukauskas SP Hou 129 14
116 Dazmon Cameron OF Det NR NA
117 Dustin Fowler OF Oak 149 32
118 Alex Kirilloff OF Min 150 32
119 Randy Arozarena SS StL 107 -12
120 Yohander Mendez SP Tex 133 13
121 Pavin Smith 1B Ari 117 -4
122 Christian Arroyo 3B TB 121 -1
123 Luis Ortiz SP Mil 96 -27
124 Touki Toussaint SP Atl 77 -47
125 Zack Collins C CHW 139 14
126 Sandy Alcantara SP Mia 144 18
127 Yadier Alvarez RP LAD 58 -69
128 Albert Abreu SP NYY NR NA
129 Nick Neidert SP Mia 127 -2
130 Dane Dunning SP CHW 146 16
131 Rogelio Armenteros SP Hou 147 16
132 Chance Sisco C Bal NR NA
133 Carson Kelly C StL NR NA
134 Jose Adolis Garcia OF StL NR NA
135 Logan Allen SP SD 124 -11
136 Luis Escobar SP Pit 122 -14
137 Max Fried SP Atl NR NA
138 Jose De Leon SP TB 138 0
139 Adonis Medina SP Phi 125 -14
140 Shane Baz SP Pit NR NA
141 Jorge Guzman SP Mia NR NA
142 Mitch White SP LAD NR NA
143 Erick Fedde SP Was 135 -8
144 Bryse Wilson SP Atl NR NA
145 D.L. Hall SP Bal NR NA
146 Shed Long 2B Cin 115 -31
147 Nate Pearson SP Tor NR NA
148 Domingo Acevedo SP NYY 148 0
149 Fernando Romero SP Min 134 -15
150 Victor Mesa, Jr. OF Cuba 55 -95

Lost Eligibility (7):
Rhys Hoskins (#10), Clint Frazier (#16), Derek Fisher (#38), Dominic Smith (#70), Jeimer Candelario (#73), Lucas Sims (#93), Francis Martes (#132)

Eligibles Dropped off (10):
Anthony Banda (#94), Ronald Guzman (#114), Adam Haseley (#118), Isaac Paredes (#119), Jose Albertos (#136), A.J. Reed (#140), Cornelius Randolph (#141), Phillip Ervin (#142), Richard Urena (#143), Adbert Alzolay (#145)

New Additions (17):
Wander Javier, Jose Siri, Garrett Whitley, Garrett Hampson, Brady Singer, Dazmon Cameron, Albert Abreu, Chance Sisco, Carson Kelly, Jose Adolis Garcia, Max Fried, Shane Baz, Jorge Guzman, Mitch White, Bryse Wilson, D.L. Hall, Nate Pearson

As always, comments are not only welcome but encouraged. Enjoy!

[Art Vandelay]

Glad you had a copy available, would've hated to lose this post.

[whalewang]

Thanks! I use your list over the pro sites.

What's the eta for Tatis Fernando? What's his comp?

[mjl]

Thanks! I use your list over the pro sites.

What's the eta for Tatis Fernando? What's his comp?

for what it's worth, Keith Law (who has him at #3, though his list is obv not fantasy oriented) compared him to Machado.

[rhd]

Thanks! I use your list over the pro sites.

What's the eta for Tatis Fernando? What's his comp?

Thanx for your response and props, whalewang.

Dont have a comp for Tatis and BA didnt have one in their report either. And since he made to AA last year (as an 18 y/o!), I would put his ETA at late 2019, probably Sept since SD probably wont have any reason to rush him..

[Teenwolf]

Now that you've seen Baseball America's list, which players do you have the biggest disagreements with? I used to think that BA always valued tools way more highly than real production, but I think they've become a lot more balanced in their rankings.

[rhd]

Now that you've seen Baseball America's list, which players do you have the biggest disagreements with? I used to think that BA always valued tools way more highly than real production, but I think they've become a lot more balanced in their rankings.

Thanx for your response, teenwolf.

Keith Law also came out w his list this week and I've adjusted my rankings a lot already based on both BA's and his list. I guess Yusniel Diaz is 1 guy that BA and Law dont like as much since he didnt appear on either list. He was highly rated coming out of Cuba and has high upside. I was surprised he was left completely off. I've moved him down some. Kieboom is another guy w impressive stats that missed both lists. Ke'Bryan Hayes is another that I was surprised missed BA list. Tho' he is on Law's at #61. OTOH, Adam Haseley made BA's list. I havent been particularly impressed w him so far. BA's report says he was tired by the time he turned pro and has dropped pitching now and that may enable his bat to take off. I'm deferring a bit and keeping him just off my list.

[YourPalChrisMal]

Cristian Pache made a big jump on your list. I assume that was just a matter of becoming more aware of him, as he seems to have flown under the radar as a result of being in a deep system, and also because he has skills that lend themselves more to fantasy than to a "traditional prospect list"? Just curious if there was more to the jump on your list that I might not be aware of.

[rhd]

Cristian Pache made a big jump on your list. I assume that was just a matter of becoming more aware of him, as he seems to have flown under the radar as a result of being in a deep system, and also because he has skills that lend themselves more to fantasy than to a "traditional prospect list"? Just curious if there was more to the jump on your list that I might not be aware of.

Thanx for the response, ChrisMal.

It was mainly because of the rankings and reports that came out on him since my last list. Both BA and BP ranked him in the top 10 of a stacked Braves system and BA also ranked him #5 in the Sally league. He's a potential gold-glove CFer so he wont have to hit a bunch in order to be a MLB regular. Oh yeah, Keith Law ranked him #57 overall. That gives me confidence that he can be a regular and his double-plus speed could mean lots of SBs in roto. I guess I tend to be a bit too high on these types of guys but arguably, I should have him even higher.

[cavebird]

When will he likely show up, however? The Braves already have a gold glove centerfielder who can hit and is signed on the cheap through 2022. Is he more likely to surface elsewhere after a trade unless his bat/power improves since you would think that would be necessary for an OF corner?

[rhd]

When will he likely show up, however? The Braves already have a gold glove centerfielder who can hit and is signed on the cheap through 2022. Is he more likely to surface elsewhere after a trade unless his bat/power improves since you would think that would be necessary for an OF corner?

Thanx for the response, cavebird.

If Pache lives up to his potential, they'll make room for him. Who plays where in their OF is uncertain but FWIW BA has Pache as the CFer in 2021 and Inciarte in LF. They have Markakis still in RF then but he'll be 38 in 2021 so he may not be a starter at all or even on the club then. Re: ETA, Pache was in Lo-A last year so I wouldnt expect him up to stay before 2020.

[Sour Masher]

RHD, I'm curious on your thoughts on a couple of high draft picks who are not on your list, and haven't gotten a lot of love elsewhere either--Austin Beck and Jake Burger. Beck, I know has a ton of risk, but I'm tempted by his bat speed and overall upside. Burger I need help on, cuz he looked good to me, but obviously, most people are pretty meh on him for some reason.

I won my league last year, so I have the last pick in a 14 teamer, so I'm trying to scout guys I think might be there at my pick. Not sure Beck will be, but maybe. I'm sure Burger will be. I also like Shane Baz better than most, and Faedo, since he is a Gator (my alma mater), and you have him pretty high. Anyone else I should be looking at who might realistically fall to the 14th pick in a league with 20 minor league spots per team, so with 280 players rostered, almost all of the talent available are 2017 draftees and internal players like Ohtani and Robert? I see you rank Pavin Smith over Burger. His lack of power scares me. Do you see him as a lot better than Burger?

I'd guess at least these 10 players will be taken before my pick (obviously, 3 more players will go too, but I'm less sure about who they will be). If any of these guys get to me, I'm taking them, but I'm mostly focusing on guys not on this list, since I think they will be gone by my pick:

Shohei Ohtani
MacKenzie Gore
Royce Lewis
Hunter Greene
Keston Hiura
Jo Adell
Brendan McKay
Luis Robert
Kyle Wright
Heliot Ramos

[rhd]

RHD, I'm curious on your thoughts on a couple of high draft picks who are not on your list, and haven't gotten a lot of love elsewhere either--Austin Beck and Jake Burger. Beck, I know has a ton of risk, but I'm tempted by his bat speed and overall upside. Burger I need help on, cuz he looked good to me, but obviously, most people are pretty meh on him for some reason.

I won my league last year, so I have the last pick in a 14 teamer, so I'm trying to scout guys I think might be there at my pick. Not sure Beck will be, but maybe. I'm sure Burger will be. I also like Shane Baz better than most, and Faedo, since he is a Gator (my alma mater), and you have him pretty high. Anyone else I should be looking at who might realistically fall to the 14th pick in a league with 20 minor league spots per team, so with 280 players rostered, almost all of the talent available are 2017 draftees and internal players like Ohtani and Robert? I see you rank Pavin Smith over Burger. His lack of power scares me. Do you see him as a lot better than Burger?

I'd guess at least these 10 players will be taken before my pick (obviously, 3 more players will go too, but I'm less sure about who they will be). If any of these guys get to me, I'm taking them, but I'm mostly focusing on guys not on this list, since I think they will be gone by my pick:

Shohei Ohtani
MacKenzie Gore
Royce Lewis
Hunter Greene
Keston Hiura
Jo Adell
Brendan McKay
Luis Robert
Kyle Wright
Heliot Ramos

Thanx for the response, SourMasher.


Beck is a guy w a lot of tools that he hasnt turned into performance yet. He's not too far off the list but he'll have to show at least something before I put him on. You might consider him anyway if you believe in him. Burger has a lot of power potential but the defense raises concerns. He might end up at 1B and he's a righty so that would put lot of pressure on his bat. He's not too far off the list.

Some other new players that are on the list include Bukauskas, Kendall, P Smith, N Pearson an D. Hall so I'd consider those. Also, Jose Adolis Garcia is a guy who might end up getting some playing time this year (kinda crowded OF now for the Cards tho). Also, another guy who's not a new player but might be available is Wander Javier. That's the guy I'd probably be interested in if all the guys you listed are gone. Also, Wander Franco is now on the list, so if you dont mind stashing him for a few years he's another one to consider.

[Sour Masher]

Thanks RHD. himWander Javier is taken, but Franco is available so I'll move up my list.

[revo]

Keibert Ruiz? He's landed as a Top 50 prospect in Baseball America's & MLB's lists, but I don't see him listed here.