2018 labr/tout

[chancellor]

If I could have landed those first six picks White did from the 12-slot, I'd have been overjoyed. Heck, I'd probably have kampei'd a full beer just landing Blackmon and Rizzo 1-2 from the 12-slot.

[Ken]

Heck, I'd probably have kampei'd a full beer just landing Blackmon and Rizzo 1-2 from the 12-slot.

I like Rizzo too. But that's actually not that uncommon - Rizzo is going around pick 24 or 25 right now, so getting him at 19 isn't a coup. Machado slipping to 24 was nice for Boggis.

[revo]

Who is "McCullough?" Wow, this guy really misread the draft or did very little prep work, IMO. Cespedes in Rd 4? Mazara in Rd 6? Lester in Rd 7? RANDALL FREAKING GRICHUK in Rd 9???

Doesn't really matter how much he liked any of these players, he could have had the first three names 3-4 rounds later and Grichuk 10-12 rounds later, and by taking them he essentially gave up four top players really worth expending these picks on.

[Ken]

Who is "McCullough?" Wow, this guy really misread the draft or did very little prep work, IMO. Cespedes in Rd 4? Mazara in Rd 6? Lester in Rd 7? RANDALL FREAKING GRICHUK in Rd 9???

Doesn't really matter how much he liked any of these players, he could have had the first three names 3-4 rounds later and Grichuk 10-12 rounds later, and by taking them he essentially gave up four top players really worth expending these picks on.

Tim McCullough.

Agree with most of your points, although you aren't likely getting Lester in R. 10 in a 15 team league. His ADP is 117 which is the 8th round in a 15 team league.

[revo]

Tim McCullough.

Agree with most of your points, although you aren't likely getting Lester in R. 10 in a 15 team league. His ADP is 117 which is the 8th round in a 15 team league.

Perhaps, but a look at the last week's worth of NFBC drafts has Lester with a draft range of 104-138, with an ADP of 123. McCullough took him 93rd. So maybe not a terrible reach, but it's a reach among a bunch of other bad reaches.

[Ken]

Perhaps, but a look at the last week's worth of NFBC drafts has Lester with a draft range of 104-138, with an ADP of 123. McCullough took him 93rd. So maybe not a terrible reach, but it's a reach among a bunch of other bad reaches.

I'm seeing 89 - 147 with an ADP of ~117 over the last 2 weeks range. https://playnfbc.sportshubtech.com/adp

Slight reach, I agree, but not as egregious as the others.

[Redbirds Fan]

Perhaps, but a look at the last week's worth of NFBC drafts has Lester with a draft range of 104-138, with an ADP of 123. McCullough took him 93rd. So maybe not a terrible reach, but it's a reach among a bunch of other bad reaches.

I don't disagree with revo's analysis, but it raises a question I have been wrestling with. Do you take the guy when you think he should go, or do you wait until closer to the ADP? A related question is whether you take the best player available, or look for a hitter, pitcher, certain position by round (which seems to be the fashion).

I know "it depends", but how many picks do you reach to make sure you get the people you want? Or do you let the draft come to you? The dynamics are so different from an auction, where you have so much greater control.

[Redbirds Fan]

I'm seeing 89 - 147 with an ADP of ~117 over the last 2 weeks range. https://playnfbc.sportshubtech.com/adp

Slight reach, I agree, but not as egregious as the others.

It seems that over the "pro" drafts, more and more pitchers are going earlier and earlier, many in the top three rounds.

[revo]

I'm seeing 89 - 147 with an ADP of ~117 over the last 2 weeks range. https://playnfbc.sportshubtech.com/adp

Slight reach, I agree, but not as egregious as the others.

You can add Tanner Roark to the list as well. He took him at 168, and he has an ADP in the last week's worth of drafts of 249.

I don't disagree with revo's analysis, but it raises a question I have been wrestling with. Do you take the guy when you think he should go, or do you wait until closer to the ADP? A related question is whether you take the best player available, or look for a hitter, pitcher, certain position by round (which seems to be the fashion).

I know "it depends", but how many picks do you reach to make sure you get the people you want? Or do you let the draft come to you? The dynamics are so different from an auction, where you have so much greater control.

It has to be a combo of both. As primarily a player in snake draft leagues, I have zero issues with a huge reach on a "hot" player (i.e. Ronald Acuna), or even a reach when you're caught in the middle of a run (usually on closers). Or if you determine a player is the last of his tier before a big drop. But the players this particular drafter was reaching on are kind of run of the mill types. I mean, why on earth would you reach on Randall Grichuk? Or Tanner Roark? Maybe it's his brother or college buddy?

[Ken]

You can add Tanner Roark to the list as well. He took him at 168, and he has an ADP in the last week's worth of drafts of 249.

Agree, I noticed that one as well

Maybe it's his brother or college buddy?

Has Larry Schechter drafted his nephew yet (Bregman)?

[chancellor]

I know "it depends", but how many picks do you reach to make sure you get the people you want? Or do you let the draft come to you? The dynamics are so different from an auction, where you have so much greater control.

I'll have a list of 3-5 players that I'll "reach" an extra round to round and a half ahead to get. In my mixed draft leagues, I end up getting 1-3 of them because some managers are more (or much more) aggressive than I am in reaching for players.

A "name" player I'll be reaching for, at least relative to ADP, will be Ian Desmond. Senorsheep had an earlier post in a different thread that did a good job of summarizing why.

[Ken]

I'll have a list of 3-5 players that I'll "reach" an extra round to round and a half ahead to get. In my mixed draft leagues, I end up getting 1-3 of them because some managers are more (or much more) aggressive than I am in reaching for players.

A "name" player I'll be reaching for, at least relative to ADP, will be Ian Desmond. Senorsheep had an earlier post in a different thread that did a good job of summarizing why.

It also varies by round.

Reaching in the 1st round for a player who should go in the 4th round is worse than reaching in the 3rd for a player who belongs in the 7th.

By the time you are down in the teens, you can reach 5 or 6 rounds and it's really not a big deal, the relative value at that point in the draft is much smaller.

[BigJonEmpire]

I don't disagree with revo's analysis, but it raises a question I have been wrestling with. Do you take the guy when you think he should go, or do you wait until closer to the ADP? A related question is whether you take the best player available, or look for a hitter, pitcher, certain position by round (which seems to be the fashion).

I know "it depends", but how many picks do you reach to make sure you get the people you want? Or do you let the draft come to you? The dynamics are so different from an auction, where you have so much greater control.

If you're drafting as an example to readers and followers you should draft where you think guys should be taken rather than by ADP. That way your readers know what it is you believe and how strongly you believe it. Even if you aren't, ADP is just a guide to the consensus not a value for your picks.

[Moonlight J]

You don't have to draft a certain way to make a point, but one should be willing to put into action the advice they've given others. I've put out 60 predictions on Rotowire - 30 hitters and 30 pitchers - and I'll be following my own advice on those guys starting with my 1st NL auction tomorrow. I've already done so in LABR, NFBC, and 2 Fantrax drafts I'm doing now as well as in my offseason roster manipulation.