2K18: Bounceback Players

[onejayhawk]

Ryan Braun brought this up. He has a bit of a hulking slugger reputation, which has been belied by double digit SB every season, even his injury plagued 2017. The story is that he worked with nagging injuries all season. Small wonder his OPS dropped over 100 points.

However, much of the concern seems to be about the decline in counting stats, to 17 HR, 52 RBI, 12 SB. Just increasing the GP to a more normal 135, those numbers become 22, 68, 16. Assuming he actually was hampered by nagging injuries, his 2015 stats seem about right, less a few SB. Also Fangraphs Depth Chart:
2015 135 G, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 15 SB, .285/.356/.498.
DC 138 G, 27 HR, 84 RBI, 13 SB, .276/.344/.498

His current ADP is close to #100. Anything above 80 seems reasonable.

Who else have you got

[fuhrdog]

Cueto and Desmond are 2 that I'm targeting.

[harmon]

Gregory Polanco if he can ever get 150 healthy games in. He seems too young to be so brittle with nagging type injuries.

[harmon]

Michael Wacha is another. Cards need a good year from him.

[onejayhawk]

Michael Wacha is another. Cards need a good year from him.

IIRC Paul Sporer agrees with that one.

J

[Gregg]

Kyle Schwarber will figure out his ba this year. He has dropped 20 lbs and is working hard this off season to be a good left fielder.

The man's work ethic is not in question. I am hoping he pulls it off.

[Gregg]

Ryan Braun brought this up. He has a bit of a hulking slugger reputation, which has been belied by double digit SB every season, even his injury plagued 2017. The story is that he worked with nagging injuries all season. Small wonder his OPS dropped over 100 points.

However, much of the concern seems to be about the decline in counting stats, to 17 HR, 52 RBI, 12 SB. Just increasing the GP to a more normal 135, those numbers become 22, 68, 16. Assuming he actually was hampered by nagging injuries, his 2015 stats seem about right, less a few SB. Also Fangraphs Depth Chart:
2015 135 G, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 15 SB, .285/.356/.498.
DC 138 G, 27 HR, 84 RBI, 13 SB, .276/.344/.498

His current ADP is close to #100. Anything above 80 seems reasonable.

Who else have you got

He hasn't played in 150 games since 2012.

If he goes cheap enough I would bite, but I would not overreach for him.

[NL Only]

They plan days off for him so 150 won't happen even with full health. 135 would be the likely max I bet

[Ken]

Kyle Schwarber will figure out his ba this year. He has dropped 20 lbs and is working hard this off season to be a good left fielder.

The man's work ethic is not in question. I am hoping he pulls it off.

The problem is, due to the name hype he'll be priced at his ceiling rather than at what he was actually worth based on last year. So even with a bounceback there's not much profit margin available.

[onejayhawk]

He hasn't played in 150 games since 2012.

If he goes cheap enough I would bite, but I would not overreach for him.

I was going with 135 games, which he has done several times.

They plan days off for him so 150 won't happen even with full health. 135 would be the likely max I bet

Give or take a few. I would have topped at 140.

In any event, what is "cheap enough"? His current ADP is about #100.

J

[Gregg]

The problem is, due to the name hype he'll be priced at his ceiling rather than at what he was actually worth based on last year. So even with a bounceback there's not much profit margin available.

I understand what you are saying, it will be interesting if that holds true.

I have him in the last year of his contract at $20 in my NL only. I am a Cub's homer and Schwarber fan. I am not sure I want to keep him one day and want him the next. I was in the hunt last year and could not trade him for anything that would help me. It will be interesting to see what my league thinks his value will be going into this year. We have some significant inflation. I am pretty sure if I trade him he will have a monster year.

[Art Vandelay]

I am pretty sure if I trade him he will have a monster year.

haha, sellers remorse and you haven't sold yet !!

[Ken]

In any event, what is "cheap enough"? His current ADP is about #100.

J

Out of curiosity, what ADP list are you using? They are pretty scattered at this point in the offseason.

[Gregg]

I was going with 135 games, which he has done several times.


Give or take a few. I would have topped at 140.

In any event, what is "cheap enough"? His current ADP is about #100.

J

In my NL only auction I am not going over $25. Somebody else might.

ADP #100 in mixed is probably at value depending on needs.

[Gregg]

haha, sellers remorse and you haven't sold yet !!

You got that right Mr. Vandelay.