2K18: Matt Chapman

[onejayhawk]

This guy has star written all over. The glove is spectacular and power just oozes. Unfortunately, he plays for Oakland, which sharply limits his BA and RBI chances.

Zips - 521 PA, 66 R, 27 HR, 73 RBI, 5 SB, .225/.298/.463
DC - 630 PA, 74 R, 29 HR, 82 RBI, 7 SB, .224/.301/.439

Is that about right?

J

[Ken]

This guy has star written all over. The glove is spectacular and power just oozes. Unfortunately, he plays for Oakland, which sharply limits his BA and RBI chances.

Zips - 521 PA, 66 R, 27 HR, 73 RBI, 5 SB, .225/.298/.463
DC - 630 PA, 74 R, 29 HR, 82 RBI, 7 SB, .224/.301/.439

Is that about right?

J

Projections seem reasonable.

Agree on the RBI, but how does Oakland sharply limit his BA?

[joncarlos]

Lots and lots of foul ground? Of course, his propensity to hit every single ball in the air also limits his AVG

[Ken]

Lots and lots of foul ground? Of course, his propensity to hit every single ball in the air also limits his AVG

I've heard that before anecdotally, however I'm not sure it plays that big of a role.

For example, the Oakland Coliseum actually played above average for hits in 2017: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfa...ort/hitsFactor

[onejayhawk]

I've heard that before anecdotally, however I'm not sure it plays that big of a role.

For example, the Oakland Coliseum actually played above average for hits in 2017: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfa...ort/hitsFactor

I had not seen the 2017 numbers, which are unusual. In 2016 the Coliseum was 5th worst in baseball for hits. Other than 2014, every year in the last decade is below 1.000, often below 0.950.

J

[onejayhawk]

Chapman's ADP has been rising. After being below #300, Fantrax has him at #275 and Fangraphs at #279. Similar player Joey Gallo is at #163 and #116 respectively. Is there really that much difference?

J

[chancellor]

I had not seen the 2017 numbers, which are unusual. In 2016 the Coliseum was 5th worst in baseball for hits. Other than 2014, every year in the last decade is below 1.000, often below 0.950.

This is true. 2017, IMO, was clearly an anomaly. And it simply fits that a guy who puts the ball in the air as much as Chapman does is going to generate more foul outs in Oakland than he would, say, in Wrigley. I think the ZIPS numbers more closely reflect likely result, and he has some RBI upside.