Pre-saging the Pre-draft

[onejayhawk]

16 team mixed league with 464 players draft. With pick #464, I drafted Shohei Otani last year. Now that he is in-house, I want to look at the options.

My no-brainers

Paul Goldschmidt Ari - 1B K
Christian Yelich Mia - OF K
Robinson Canó Sea - 2B K
Jon Gray Col - SP
Michael Fulmer Det - SP
Kelvin Herrera KC - RP

Víctor Robles Was - OF
Shohei Otani - SP
Matt Chapman Oak - 3B
Ronald Acuña Atl - OF

Given the above, pick five of these - counting 70% for 2018, 30% for 2019.

Paul Dejong StL - 2B, 3B, SS
Brent Honeywell TB - SP
Willie Calhoun LAD - OF.
Brendan Rodgers Col - SS
Alex Verdugo LAD - OF
Scott Kingery Phi - 2B
Brian Anderson Mia - 3B
Jeimer Candelario Det - 3B
Austin Hays Bal - OF
Patrick Corbin Ari - SP,RP
Mike Clevinger Cle - SP,RP
Jharel Cotton Oak - SP

J

[joncarlos]

Calhoun (assuming that is the guy the Dodgers traded to TEX, and might start 2018 in the majors)
DeJong
Clevinger (love that guy)
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I'd probably keep Rodgers just for the upside, but can you keep him beyond 2019?
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Last spot is a toss-up, probably lean Corbin over Honeywell and hope the humidor works. Can see arguments for Kingery or Hays. (Right now BAL has Davis, Trumbo, A Jones, Mancini and nobody for 1B/DH/OF, but they like to sign random free agents they don't need)

[Ken]

16 team mixed league with 464 players draft. With pick #464, I drafted Shohei Otani last year. Now that he is in-house, I want to look at the options.

The real question I have is how Ohtani lasted until pick 464 in a keeper league last year?

In a league of similar size that I'm in, Ohtani was drafted in the first half of the first round of reserves last year (the first round he was eligible to be taken). After which 3 other owners said they were hoping to draft him round 1. Hard to imagine a keeper league where he wasn't coveted.

[onejayhawk]

Yes. This is the Calhoun from the Darvish trade.

Rodgers can be kept indefinitely, but the cost escalates. Still 2020 and 2021 are reasonable.
So, Kingery or Hays depending on their projected role. If both are starting full time, which? Would you take both over another SP?

To me Corbin vs Honeywell comes down to expectations. Is this a competitive team in 2018? I should get one good player (top 100-125) and 3-4 competent middle round guys before the pool drains. After 5 picks we will be out in the over #300 rubble. Of course, Bellinger was out there last year. DeJong was never drafted.

J

[joncarlos]

Yes. This is the Calhoun from the Darvish trade.

Rodgers can be kept indefinitely, but the cost escalates. Still 2020 and 2021 are reasonable.
So, Kingery or Hays depending on their projected role. If both are starting full time, which? Would you take both over another SP?

To me Corbin vs Honeywell comes down to expectations. Is this a competitive team in 2018? I should get one good player (top 100-125) and 3-4 competent middle round guys before the pool drains. After 5 picks we will be out in the over #300 rubble. Of course, Bellinger was out there last year. DeJong was never drafted.

J

I think you're a year away, but Goldy is a good start, and Ohtani gives you a lot of ceiling. I think you need Robles and Acuna to be firing on all cylinders to compete. And a bounceback from Cano. I think Hays is a lot more likely to be a starter and I'd prefer him to Kingery - the Phils already have Franco/Crawford/Hernandez/Galvis for their 3 infield spots, and their OF isn't terrible.

[onejayhawk]

Three scenarios:

Win now:
DeJong, Corbin, Clevinger, Calhoun, Hays

Win next year:
DeJong, Clevinger, Calhoun, Hays, Rodgers
Field trade offers for Cano and Herrera

Rebuild:
DeJong, Clevinger, Rodgers, Honeywell, Kingery
Field trade offers for all the veterans.

Is that about right?

J

[joncarlos]

Three scenarios:

Win now:
DeJong, Corbin, Clevinger, Calhoun, Hays

Win next year:
DeJong, Clevinger, Calhoun, Hays, Rodgers
Field trade offers for Cano and Herrera

Rebuild:
DeJong, Clevinger, Rodgers, Honeywell, Kingery
Field trade offers for all the veterans.

Is that about right?

J

I think Rodgers' trade value is higher than Hays' actual value, so even in go-for-it mode, I'd keep Rodgers as #5 along with Corbin. So for me, I think I'm going Rodgers, Clevinger, DeJong, Calhoun regardless. Even if you just keep Calhoun to flip him mid-season. I like Hays and Honeywell's upside enough to make them #5 if you're thinking long term. Honestly, I'd be shopping Herrera regardless. I don't know how long you can keep them, but if you want to win now, maybe consider finding a Godfather offer for Ohtani or Acuna. Maybe someone has Harper and Altuve and a good prospect or something.

[onejayhawk]

You may find this funny. I certainly do.

Nine of the players are in Fangraphs' prospect top 50. Numbers are from that. 16 team league, so the end of round 25 is #400. Our commish, and the guy I beat for the title in 2013, had this to say about a few of the players:

1 Ronald Acuna ATL 19 OF - possibly kept, if he looks like getting to compete for a starting spot. But if he's not coming up until June or even 2019, he'll get drafted around rd 20.

9 Brent Honeywell TB 22 RHP - worth a gamble if he looks to have a rotation spot. Unlikely to go full Glasnow. But there are plenty of decent pitchers available during the waiver rounds, so without a rotation spot, he's certainly not worth it. Given he'd get drafted in the early teens with a rotation spot, not much point overpaying for him in trade.

10 Victor Robles WAS 20 OF - rd 21 keeper, which is the expensive (option cost pick #326) end of the range where he'd be drafted.

13 Brendan Rodgers COL 21 SS - AA player who can't take a walk. Definite non-keeper. Will be drafted in rd 25ish.

18 Austin Hays BAL 22 OF - came from nowhere to have big year in A/AA. Got a surprise september run and was terrible. Another definite non-keeper and rd 25+ pick.

20 Alex Verdugo LAD 21 OF - definite non-keeper

23 Scott Kingery PHI 23 2B - power & speed = exciting. If he looks a good chance to win 2B job, then yes, probably gambled on. If he's clearly going back to AAA to work on those scary plate discipline numbers, then clearly not kept.

27 Willie Calhoun TEX 22 2B - If he was a 2B with a guaranteed job, he'd be a borderline keeper. But since he'll be OF only, he's not.

He's saying that Acuna would last over 300 picks and Rodgers almost 400. Calhoun, Kingery, and Honeywell are better keeper prospects and they are iffy.

J

[Gregg]

You may find this funny. I certainly do.

Nine of the players are in Fangraphs' prospect top 50. Numbers are from that. 16 team league, so the end of round 25 is #400. Our commish, and the guy I beat for the title in 2013, had this to say about a few of the players:

1 Ronald Acuna ATL 19 OF - possibly kept, if he looks like getting to compete for a starting spot. But if he's not coming up until June or even 2019, he'll get drafted around rd 20.

9 Brent Honeywell TB 22 RHP - worth a gamble if he looks to have a rotation spot. Unlikely to go full Glasnow. But there are plenty of decent pitchers available during the waiver rounds, so without a rotation spot, he's certainly not worth it. Given he'd get drafted in the early teens with a rotation spot, not much point overpaying for him in trade.

10 Victor Robles WAS 20 OF - rd 21 keeper, which is the expensive (option cost pick #326) end of the range where he'd be drafted.

13 Brendan Rodgers COL 21 SS - AA player who can't take a walk. Definite non-keeper. Will be drafted in rd 25ish.

18 Austin Hays BAL 22 OF - came from nowhere to have big year in A/AA. Got a surprise september run and was terrible. Another definite non-keeper and rd 25+ pick.

20 Alex Verdugo LAD 21 OF - definite non-keeper

23 Scott Kingery PHI 23 2B - power & speed = exciting. If he looks a good chance to win 2B job, then yes, probably gambled on. If he's clearly going back to AAA to work on those scary plate discipline numbers, then clearly not kept.

27 Willie Calhoun TEX 22 2B - If he was a 2B with a guaranteed job, he'd be a borderline keeper. But since he'll be OF only, he's not.

He's saying that Acuna would last over 300 picks and Rodgers almost 400. Calhoun, Kingery, and Honeywell are better keeper prospects and they are iffy.

J

Looks like he is not a good fit to trade with.

[onejayhawk]

Looks like he is not a good fit to trade with.

We've only done one--Votto for McCutchen straight up, in 2013. He got the better deal. I beat him in the finals.

J