Early AL keepers - just for kicks

[SlideRule]

The hot stove isn't hot enough to overcome the cold and rainy weather here in Portland, OR. So let's speculate on my AL keepers for 2018!
10-team AL only, standard roto. Keepers are up to 3yrs A/B/C at original contract, can keep up to 8 max. Inflation is usually around 15% (Trout = ~$50). Here's my list:

Definitely yes:
A Bregman $2C

Probably yes:
T Beckham $5 B
D DeShields $8 B
J Paxton $19 B
D Duffy $5 C

Maybe yes:
T Anderson $7 C
C Devenski $1 B
G Springer $35 B
B Gamel $5 B
R Chirinos $1 B

Considering but probably no:
N Cruz $35 B
B Dozier $28 B
C Santana $20 B
P Bridwell $5 B
Y Sanchez $5 B

I have an excess of SS-eligible players (Bregman, Anderson, Beckham), but pre-season trades are usually tough in my league.
Also have a $3 Doolittle on the off chance he gets dealt back to the AL.
Any early advice? Do you like Paxton at $19 as much as I do? Springer at $35 vs. his auction price?

[Gregg]

Who were the top 5 most expensive keeps in your league last year?

And who were the 5 most expensive auction players?

Given that it is 10 teams I most likely would keep a couple of your expensive best players. I will take a harder look at it later. In the meantime I can tell you I would be dropping Duffy for one of Cruz or Dozier depending on who else was going to be back in the auction.

[SlideRule]

Top keepers:
Altuve $42
Kluber $37
Cano $30
Hanley Ramirez $22
Machado $20

Top auction prices:
Trout $52
Betts $45
Odor $39
Cabrera $39
Sale $38
Bogaerts $36
Donaldson $36
Springer $35
Cruz $35

I'm nearly certain I could get Cruz back for $35 +/- $1 next year. Probably similar for Dozier, although he might go a bit more, I guess.

Looking at the above auction prices, I think inflation wasn't quite as high (at least on the high-end players) as it has been in the past.

[Ken]

Top auction prices:
..
Odor $39

Well that one stinks

[cool hand]

I'm in a 10 team AL only 4x4.
I'd keep Anderson before I'd keep DeShields.
I'm personally keeping Dozier @ $26 and think it's a steal.
I'd probably throw in Devenski for a dollar as well.
I'd keep Springer over Cruz, but he'd be borderline for me.
If you paid $35 for him last year, his value has surely gone up since '16.

[SlideRule]

Well that one stinks

Yeah, let's just say that team did not finish at the top of the standings...

DeShields has an extra year of contract, and I'm kind of assuming that TEX lets Carlos Gomez walk and DDS has a full-time OF job. That said, I like both.

I like Devenski too, but am wary of his fade down the stretch last season. I've seen it often that this year's valuable MRs are next year's replacement level pitching filler or worse.

Springer will probably go for something around $40 next year if I had to guess. My guess is Cruz goes for under $35 with people (still) expecting him to age/regress/break.

[Ken]

Personally, I'd probably keep:

Bregman
Dozier
Beckham
Springer
Paxton
Anderson
Duffy
Gamel

The last couple are definitely flexible, if you prefer DeShields go for it. My problem with him is that he always has a good shot of turning into a 4th OFer. But he could also lead off all season and get you the SB you need. Flip a coin.

[Gregg]

Personally, I'd probably keep:

Bregman
Dozier
Beckham
Springer
Paxton
Anderson
Duffy
Gamel

The last couple are definitely flexible, if you prefer DeShields go for it. My problem with him is that he always has a good shot of turning into a 4th OFer. But he could also lead off all season and get you the SB you need. Flip a coin.

I pretty much agree with Ken, except I replace Duffy with Devenski and Gamel with DeShields.

We are going to net SB's (SB's minus caught stealing) this next year so I would be keeping Cruz over Springer. Plus I do like my power. Given your comments and rules I keep Springer.

[SlideRule]

Everyone really likes Dozier that much? According to the FG calculator and my league parameter he earned just under $27 for 2017. Higher than expected, but right below Trout and Betts overall. I guess he's not unlikely to repeat that performance now that there are 2 nearly identical years in the books. I do worry he'll come back down in AVG and the counting stats will suffer some though, but the BABIP has never risen above .300 (close in 2017 though).

Thanks for making me take a 2nd look. I'm often drawn to the cheaper guys due to potential for highly profitable keepers, but in this case a Dozier in the hand might be better than two in the bush.

[Art Vandelay]

I pretty much agree with Ken, except I replace Duffy with Devenski and Gamel with DeShields.

We are going to net SB's (SB's minus caught stealing) this next year so I would be keeping Cruz over Springer. Plus I do like my power. Given your comments and rules I keep Springer.

Our league tried net SB for a couple of season's then went back to straight SB. Can't remember why but obviously the league didn't like it

[SlideRule]

Bumping this to revisit given some of the recent posts I've seen people writing about Anderson (negative), Devenski (positive), and Duffy (negative). Anyone care to update who they think should make my last few keeper spots in my 10-team AL only? Trying to trade Anderson as I'm SS-overloaded, but preseason trades are hard in my league.

Right now I'm leaning (can keep 8):

Dozier 28
Bregman 2
Springer 35
Beckham 5
Paxton 19
DeShields 8
Tim Anderson 7
D Duffy 5

But could easily be convinced to swap in one of these guys:
Devenski 1
Gamel 5
Chirinos 1

[Art Vandelay]

Bumping this to revisit given some of the recent posts I've seen people writing about Anderson (negative), Devenski (positive), and Duffy (negative). Anyone care to update who they think should make my last few keeper spots in my 10-team AL only? Trying to trade Anderson as I'm SS-overloaded, but preseason trades are hard in my league.

Right now I'm leaning (can keep 8):

Dozier 28
Bregman 2
Springer 35
Beckham 5
Paxton 19
DeShields 8
Tim Anderson 7
D Duffy 5

But could easily be convinced to swap in one or both of these guys:
Devenski 1
Gamel 5

I wouldn't change your list.

[SlideRule]

Interesting, in LABR mixed, Tim Anderson went 3 rounds before Tim Beckham. ???

[chancellor]

In a BA league, I can't argue much with your top 8. In an OBP league, I dump Tim Anderson like a hot potato and bump up Devenski.

[SlideRule]

Would you trade either my $5B Beckham (so this and next year) or $7C Tim Anderson for a $1C A Cobb or a $5C McHugh? More interested in Cobb, but not sure it's worth it to trade Anderson away for an injury-prone SP on the Rays... Thoughts?