RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Pre-BA League Top 20s" Version)

[rhd]

Here's the latest list, in advance of BA's League top 20 lists, which are supposed to start appearing later today. Lotsa changes.

I debated whether to put Otani or Acuna #1, mainly because of the uncertainty of whether Otani will come over next year and his health status. According to recent announcements, he will be posted altho I've yet to hear that he himself has stated that he intends to come. Re: his health, he is pitching again and pitched as recently as last Tuesday and reportedly looked good. So I decided to keep him ahead of Acuna. Also, note that Hoskins is much higher than he was before. I've finally bought in to what he's doing. It appears pretty clear that he will get regular playing time and Tommy Joseph apparently will have to be the odd man out.

Same spiel as usual: I generally follow BA's prospect eligibility requirements, which are <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP. Unlike BA tho, amateurs, unsigned draftees and foreign players are eligible. Also, while BA has a different IP limit for relievers (30 IP?), relievers are eligible as long as they dont have >50 IP. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), and actual closers are upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

I havent yet but I'll do a Google doc w the list and post the link.

Rank Name Pos Org +/- Prev
1 Shohei Otani SP Japan 1 2
2 Ronald Acuna OF Atl 20 22
3 Victor Robles OF Was 0 3
4 Vladimir Guerrero 3B Tor 13 17
5 Eloy Jimenez OF CHW 1 6
6 Kyle Tucker OF Hou 3 9
7 Brendan Rodgers SS Col 1 8
8 Gleyber Torres SS NYY -3 5
9 Fernando Tatis SS SD 98 107
10 Rhys Hoskins 1B Phi 99 109
11 Austin Hays OF Bal NA NR
12 Bo Bichette SS Tor 34 46
13 Scott Kingery 2B Phi 125 138
14 Nick Senzel 3B Cin 12 26
15 Willy Adames SS TB 1 16
16 Clint Frazier OF NYY -3 13
17 Lewis Brinson OF Mil -5 12
18 Michael Kopech SP CHW 11 29
19 Brent Honeywell SP TB 6 25
20 Forrest Whitley SP Hou 114 134
21 Alex Reyes SP StL 63 84
22 Walker Buehler SP LAD 81 103
23 Taylor Trammell OF Cin 55 78
24 Franklin Barreto 2B Oak -10 14
25 Alex Verdugo OF LAD 19 44
26 Royce Lewis SS Min 63 89
27 Anthony Alford OF Tor 7 34
28 Leodys Taveras OF Tex 7 35
29 Triston McKenzie SP Cle 19 48
30 Mitch Keller SP Pit 10 40
31 Hunter Greene SP Cin 10 41
32 Luiz Gohara SP Atl 54 86
33 A.J. Puk SP Oak 25 58
34 Luis Robert OF CHW 4 38
35 Kolby Allard SP Atl -7 28
36 Jesus Sanchez OF TB 70 106
37 Estevan Florial OF NYY NA NR
38 Derek Fisher OF Hou 34 72
39 J.P. (John Paul) Crawford SS Phi 26 65
40 Ryan McMahon 1B Col NA NR
41 Willie Calhoun 2B Tex 54 95
42 Jorge Mateo SS Oak 9 51
43 Francisco Mejia C Cle 17 60
44 Blake Rutherford OF CHW -13 31
45 Mickey Moniak OF Phi -13 32
46 Juan Soto OF Was -10 36
47 MacKenzie Gore SP SD 80 127
48 Michel Baez SP SD NA NR
49 Ian Anderson SP Atl 26 75
50 Kyle Wright SP Atl 40 90
51 Kevin Maitan SS Atl -12 39
52 Cal Quantrill SP SD 30 82
53 Mike Soroka SP Atl 20 73
54 Jo (Jordon) Adell OF LAA NA NR
55 Victor Mesa, Jr. OF FA-Cuba -18 37
56 Adrian Morejon SP SD 3 59
57 Jack Flaherty SP StL 56 113
58 Yadier Alvarez SP LAD -38 20
59 Franklin Perez SP Det -2 57
60 Jason Groome SP Bos -11 49
61 Austin Meadows OF Pit -50 11
62 Nick Gordon SS Min -1 61
63 Kyle Lewis OF Sea -40 23
64 Corey Ray OF Mil -46 18
65 Brendan McKay 1B TB 26 91
66 Bobby Bradley 1B Cle 3 69
67 Jake Bauers OF TB 4 71
68 Michael Chavis 3B Bos NA NR
69 Sixto Sanchez SP Phi 23 92
70 Dominic Smith 1B NYM -3 67
71 Jesse Winker OF Cin 10 81
72 Harrison Bader OF StL 22 94
73 Jeimer Candelario 3B Det 50 123
74 Luis Urias 2B SD -29 45
75 Joey Wentz SP Atl NA NR
76 Alec Hansen SP CHW 40 116
77 Touki Toussaint SP Atl 67 144
78 Dylan Cease SP CHW 5 83
79 Tyler Mahle SP Cin NA NR
80 Justus Sheffield SP NYY -4 76
81 Zack Granite OF Min NA NR
82 Trent Clark OF Mil NA NR
83 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B Pit 13 96
84 Yusniel Diaz OF LAD 24 108
85 Tyler O'Neill OF StL -38 47
86 Christin Stewart OF Det 12 98
87 Jeren Kendall OF LAD 1 88
88 Brandon Woodruff SP Mil 45 133
89 Chance Adams SP NYY 13 102
90 Stephen Gonsalves SP Min 3 93
91 Matt Manning SP Det -4 87
92 Keston Hiura 2B Mil NA NR
93 Lucas Sims SP Atl NA NR
94 Anthony Banda SP Ari 27 121
95 Anderson Espinoza SP SD -74 21
96 Luis Ortiz SP Mil -32 64
97 Alex Faedo SP Det NA NR
98 Josh Hader RP Mil -43 55
99 Brett Phillips OF Mil 23 122
100 Ryan Mountcastle 3B Bal 36 136
101 Yordan Alvarez 1B Hou NA NR
102 Austin Riley 3B Atl NA NR
103 Carter Kieboom 3B Was 34 137
104 Magneuris Sierra OF StL 31 135
105 Mauricio Dubon 2B Mil 27 132
106 Roman Quinn OF Phi -26 80
107 Randy Arozarena SS StL 5 112
108 Cole Tucker SS Pit 33 141
109 Cristian Pache OF Atl 33 142
110 Chris Shaw 1B SF 38 148
111 Jahmai Jones OF LAA 9 120
112 Monte Harrison OF Mil NA NR
113 Brandon Marsh OF LAA NA NR
114 Ronald Guzman 1B Tex NA NR
115 Shed Long 2B Cin NA NR
116 Heliot Ramos OF SF NA NR
117 Pavin Smith 1B Ari 7 124
118 Adam Haseley OF Phi 7 125
119 Isaac Paredes SS Det NA NR
120 Andres Gimenez SS NYM -15 105
121 Christian Arroyo 3B SF -11 110
122 Luis Escobar SP Pit NA NR
123 Jon Duplantier SP Ari NA NR
124 Logan Allen SP SD NA NR
125 Adonis Medina SP Phi NA NR
126 Beau Burrows SP Det NA NR
127 Nick Neidert SP Sea NA NR
128 Corbin Burnes SP Mil NA NR
129 J.B. Bukauskas SP Hou -3 126
130 Miguel Andujar 3B NYY NA NR
131 Colton Welker 3B Col NA NR
132 Francis Martes SP Hou -113 19
133 Yohander Mendez SP Tex -77 56
134 Fernando Romero SP Min NA NR
135 Erick Fedde RP Was -61 74
136 Jose Albertos SP CHC NA NR
137 Jesus Luzardo SP Oak NA NR
138 Jose De Leon SP TB -114 24
139 Zack Collins C CHW -69 70
140 A.J. Reed 1B Hou -72 68
141 Cornelius Randolph OF Phi NA NR
142 Phillip Ervin OF Cin NA NR
143 Richard Urena SS Tor -24 119
144 Sandy Alcantara SP StL -1 143
145 Adbert Alzolay SP CHC NA NR
146 Dane Dunning SP CHW NA NR
147 Rogelio Armenteros SP Hou NA NR
148 Domingo Acevedo SP NYY NA NR
149 Dustin Fowler OF Oak NA 140
150 Alex Kirilloff OF Min NA NR

Lost Eligibility (15):
Yoan Moncada (#1), Amed Rosario (#4), Rafael Devers (#7), Ozzie Albies (#10), Ian Happ (#15), Brad Zimmer (#27), Lucas Giolito (#30), Raimel Tapia (#33), Reynaldo Lopez (#42), Luke Weaver (#43), Amir Garrett (#52), Sean Newcomb (#54), Matt Chapman (#66), Teoscar Hernandez (#79), Nick Williams (#99)

Eligibles Dropped off (25):
Lourdes Gurriel (#50), David Paulino (#53), Isan Diaz (#62), Delvin Perez (#63), Koda Glover (#77), Tyler Beede (#85), Franklyn Kilome (#97), Kevin Newman (#100), Sean Reid-Foley (#101), Michael Gettys (#104), Brandon Nimmo (#111), Carson Fulmer (#114), Brady Aiken (#115), Phil Bickford (#117), Grant Holmes (#118), Seth Beer (#128), Casey Gillaspie (#129), Rowdy (Ryan) Tellez (#130), Luis Alexander Basabe (#131), Dylan Cozens (#139), Max Fried (#145), Thomas Szapucki (#146), Lucas Erceg (#147), Travis Demeritte (#149), Riley Pint (#150)

New Additions (40):
Austin Hays, Estevan Florial, Ryan McMahon, Michel Baez, Jo Adell, Michael Chavis, Joey Wentz, Tyler Mahle, Zack Granite, Trent Clark, Keston Hiura, Lucas Sims, Alex Faedo, Yordan Alvarez, Austin Riley, Monte Harrison, Brandon Marsh, Ronald Guzman, Shed Long, Heliot Ramos, Isaac Paredes, Luis Escobar, Jon Duplantier, Logan Allen, Adonis Medina, Beau Burrows, Nick Neidert, Corbin Burnes, Miguel Andujar, Colton Welker, Fernando Romero, Jose Albertos, Jesus Luzardo, Cornelius Randolph, Phillip Ervin, Adbert Alzolay, Dane Dunning, Rogelio Armenteros, Domingo Acevedo, Alex Kirilloff

As always, comments are not only welcome but encouraged. Enjoy!

[harmon]

Josh Hader.... Why the big drop on him,he's looked very good. Should he be in the Lost Eligibility category?

[revo]

Josh Hader.... Why the big drop on him,he's looked very good. Should he be in the Lost Eligibility category?

Same with Hoskins, who has 129 ABs as of today. Clint Frazier will likely be off by the end of this week, as he has 123 ABs.

Good stuff as usual!

[rhd]

Josh Hader.... Why the big drop on him,he's looked very good. Should he be in the Lost Eligibility category?

Thnx for your response, harmon.

Hader has less than 50 MLB IP (39.0) so he's eligible and probably wont lose eligibility this year either. Yes, he's been very good but as a reliever. His roto value is limited if he's not going to be a SP and there have always been speculation he was going to end up in the pen, which is where he is rt now. Arguably, I should have him even lower.

[rhd]

Same with Hoskins, who has 129 ABs as of today. Clint Frazier will likely be off by the end of this week, as he has 123 ABs.

Good stuff as usual!

Thanx for the response, revo.

Yes, Hoskins and maybe a dozen or so others will lose eligibility by season's end. But as long as they're eligible now they're not excluded from the list.

[Judge Jude]

Dom Smith about 2 games away from going over as well

[onejayhawk]

Thanks as always.

I have a couple of these:

1 Shohei Otani SP Japan 1 2
2 Ronald Acuna OF Atl 20 22
3 Victor Robles OF Was 0 3
4 Vladimir Guerrero 3B Tor 13 17
5 Eloy Jimenez OF CHW 1 6
6 Kyle Tucker OF Hou 3 9
7 Brendan Rodgers SS Col 1 8
8 Gleyber Torres SS NYY -3 5
9 Fernando Tatis SS SD 98 107
10 Rhys Hoskins 1B Phi 99 109
11 Austin Hays OF Bal NA NR
12 Bo Bichette SS Tor 34 46
13 Scott Kingery 2B Phi 125 138
14 Nick Senzel 3B Cin 12 26
15 Willy Adames SS TB 1 16

Also Brent Honeywell, Willie Calhoun, JP Crawford, Jeimer Candelario. Matt Chapman just dripped off. I have 2018 plus six option years on Otani, five on Robles, two or three on the rest.

I'm a bit surprised Austin Hayes is this high. I was thinking more 20s. Honeywell is your 2nd rated SP, which is cool. At least I'll have some chips on the table at the winter meetings.

J

[Judge Jude]

I traded away these guys in 2017
#flagsflyforever

Rank Name Pos Org +/- Prev
2 Ronald Acuna OF Atl 20 22
22 Walker Buehler SP LAD 81 103
45 Mickey Moniak OF Phi -13 32
(also Albies as a farmhand)

I traded away these guys in 2015, also a pennant year
40 Ryan McMahon 1B Col NA NR
70 Dominic Smith 1B NYM -3 67
93 Lucas Sims SP Atl NA NR
138 Jose De Leon SP TB -114 24

I still own
116 Heliot Ramos OF SF NA NR

also own Naylor, Pint, and Baz who all missed the cut

[harmon]

Re Hader.....My bet is he will be in the rotation next year and may well be dominant. We've seen this type of introduction many times before with prized arms. He clearly has that wow factor, a special prospect to be sure.

[revo]

Re Hader.....My bet is he will be in the rotation next year and may well be dominant. We've seen this type of introduction many times before with prized arms. He clearly has that wow factor, a special prospect to be sure.

Yep, I agree with you. He's on my must get lists in my redraft leagues....

[rhd]

Thanks as always.

I have a couple of these:

1 Shohei Otani SP Japan 1 2
2 Ronald Acuna OF Atl 20 22
3 Victor Robles OF Was 0 3
4 Vladimir Guerrero 3B Tor 13 17
5 Eloy Jimenez OF CHW 1 6
6 Kyle Tucker OF Hou 3 9
7 Brendan Rodgers SS Col 1 8
8 Gleyber Torres SS NYY -3 5
9 Fernando Tatis SS SD 98 107
10 Rhys Hoskins 1B Phi 99 109
11 Austin Hays OF Bal NA NR
12 Bo Bichette SS Tor 34 46
13 Scott Kingery 2B Phi 125 138
14 Nick Senzel 3B Cin 12 26
15 Willy Adames SS TB 1 16

Also Brent Honeywell, Willie Calhoun, JP Crawford, Jeimer Candelario. Matt Chapman just dripped off. I have 2018 plus six option years on Otani, five on Robles, two or three on the rest.

I'm a bit surprised Austin Hayes is this high. I was thinking more 20s. Honeywell is your 2nd rated SP, which is cool. At least I'll have some chips on the table at the winter meetings.

J

Thanx for the response, J.

Yeah, I was a little aggressive w Hays. I think 20s is about where he'll be on the lists that come out in the off-season. But he is up in MLB now and contributing well so far and figures to be an everyday player next year. That's why he's higher.

[onejayhawk]

Thanx for the response, J.

Yeah, I was a little aggressive w Hays. I think 20s is about where he'll be on the lists that come out in the of-season. But he is up in MLB now and contributing well so far and figures to be an every player next year. That's why he higher.

Thanks. It's always good to have your hunches confirmed.

Now, if I can just do that well in the draft...

J

[Art Vandelay]

Derek Hill Detroit cf 22 years old next season

Missed the first half 2017 recovering from tommy john. The former 1st round pick still managed to steal 29 bases in 224 ab's across three levels (a+ was the highest). In 2016, he lead A ball with 35 stolen bases in 384 ab's. Has a decent walk rate.

I'm thinking this is someone who should be drafted at the back end in deep leagues (speed speed speed).

[YourPalChrisMal]

Do you guys think Hays has a chance to break camp next year as a starter? Or is it more likely that he gets more seasoning at AAA to start 2018? Just curious what the early thoughts are from Baltimore.

[onejayhawk]

Why not? Look at the depth chart. The Orioles legitimately have 2 OF jobs open. One probably goes to Mancini's bat. The options for the other two are Hays, Jones (age 33) and Seth Smith (age 36). This assumes Trumbo (age 33) is still DH. They need defense badly and he can play OK in all three. If he's still hitting in March, my guess is he comes north and not to sit

Of course, the off season is still ahead of us.

J