Out of Nowhere Breakouts

[revo]

As we were discussing in the Washington Nationals thread, let's talk about why and how there are so many breakouts/performance spikes by players no one was on, and how we can potentially spot these players in the future. I'll list a few and let's add to it:

HITTERS
- Justin Smoak
- Travis Shaw
- Mark Reynolds
- Tommy Pham
- Brett Gardner
- Andrelton Simmons
- Scooter Gennett
- Marwin Gonzalez
- Logan Morrison
- Josh Harrison
- Yonder Alonso
- Tim Beckham
- Zach Cozart
- Yadier Molina
- Gerardo Parra
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Whit Merrifield
- Paul DeJong
- Matt Davidson

PITCHERS
- Gio Gonzalez
- Alex Wood
- Ervin Santana
- Jason Vargas
- Brad Peacock
- Charlie Morton
- Zach Godley
- Chase Anderson
- Chad Green
- Archie Bradley
- Jimmy Nelson
- Chris Taylor
- CC Sabathia
- Bud Norris
- Zach Davies

[madducks]

Vargas has been terrible in the second half. His breakout is now looking like just a good first half and then regressing back to his previous performance level. Reynolds has benefited greatly from playing half of his games in Coors field. He's only hitting .236/.314/.384 on the road this year.

A lot of these guys have shown flashes of brilliance in the past (.ie one great month or great 1st/2nd half) but have never been consistent. I'm betting that a lot of these guys have increased their focus on physical conditioning and/or video prep work to get better results.

Also, don't have time to check, but i wonder how many guys from the list are in a contract year.

[YourPalChrisMal]

Another one for your list...

Chris Taylor?!?!

[YourPalChrisMal]

Here's another one. C.C.Sabathia? I got him for $1 as an end game selection in my AL-only league, and was actually kicking myself because I figured that $1 would've been better spent on some middle reliever who wouldn't hurt me. Same thing happened me to the previous year when I "accidentally" got J.A.Happ for $2.

[revo]

It's probably unfair to include Alex Wood on this list. He's been very good before, and it was always injuries that derailed him, but he always had talent.

Taylor and Sabathia are good ones.

How about Bud Norris? Matt Davidson? Paul DeJong? Whit Merrifield?

[YourPalChrisMal]

It's probably unfair to include Alex Wood on this list. He's been very good before, and it was always injuries that derailed him, but he always had talent.

Taylor and Sabathia are good ones.

How about Bud Norris? Matt Davidson? Paul DeJong? Whit Merrifield?

Paul freaking DeJong and Whit Merrifield! Those might be at the top of the list.

[pitbull]

Lets take Zimmerman. Here is a take from Rotowire before the season started:

While a lot of things went very right for the Nationals last year, Zimmerman regaining his swagger was not one of them. He once again couldn't stay off the DL, and even though his 115 games played were his highest total since 2013, he didn't do much with those extra plate appearances, posting a career-low .642 OPS and career-high 22.3 percent strikeout rate. Now 32 years old and with a bad shoulder that limits him to first base, there's little reason for optimism in Zimmerman's future. He didn't even put together his usual big finish to the season, hitting just .222/.259/.333 in 81 at-bats through September and October, although he did show some life in the playoffs. Heading into the final year of his contract, the one-time face of the franchise may find himself slowly pushed to the bench in 2017, as the 21 games Daniel Murphy played at first base could be a sign that the front office no longer views Zimmerman as even a short-term option at the position.

The Nats also signed Lind in the off-season so if I'm reviewing his stats I'm thinking the last seasons have been due to injuries, getting older and with stats declining such as BB, K are going up, less contact, BABIP and isolated power all declining there is no reason to think that at age 32 he could put up the best numbers in his career. The only explanation that I can come up with is that this was the healthiest he has been since 2013. Even given that you have to factor in at age 32 his body is likely to be in decline. The NL league I'm in he went for $11. My thoughts were way too much for him. Yet has turned out to be a huge bargain at that price.

The conclusion that I get out of this is if a player at that age is healthy, has the skills that he has displayed earlier in his career then he could be a bargain going into the season. And then the question comes up how do you know he is healthy other than what is reported. Short of calling his doctor up to get a full medical report that is where the research needs to be and it is still a judgement call. I also think there is a degree of luck involve here.

Thoughts?

[revo]

I clearly remember during my 16-team draft the guy in front of me taking Zimmerman in the 17th rd and snickering "Zimmerman, lol. Glad you didn't take my guy!"


He hasn't been spectacular, but Zach Davies has 14 wins.

[Judge Jude]

I paid $1 for Neris and $2 for Knebel and $5 for AWood and $7 for Lind and kept Kendrick (.330) for $9 and picked up Pham and JNelson and Chacin (11 W) and FRivero early in the season as FA (and just added Ziegler as FA, has 8 SV in 10 scoreless IP so far). also NWilliams as farmhand.

I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya

(and I am an HQ fan in a non-GQ league which helps.)

[Moonlight J]

Lets take Zimmerman. Here is a take from Rotowire before the season started:

While a lot of things went very right for the Nationals last year, Zimmerman regaining his swagger was not one of them. He once again couldn't stay off the DL, and even though his 115 games played were his highest total since 2013, he didn't do much with those extra plate appearances, posting a career-low .642 OPS and career-high 22.3 percent strikeout rate. Now 32 years old and with a bad shoulder that limits him to first base, there's little reason for optimism in Zimmerman's future. He didn't even put together his usual big finish to the season, hitting just .222/.259/.333 in 81 at-bats through September and October, although he did show some life in the playoffs. Heading into the final year of his contract, the one-time face of the franchise may find himself slowly pushed to the bench in 2017, as the 21 games Daniel Murphy played at first base could be a sign that the front office no longer views Zimmerman as even a short-term option at the position.

The Nats also signed Lind in the off-season so if I'm reviewing his stats I'm thinking the last seasons have been due to injuries, getting older and with stats declining such as BB, K are going up, less contact, BABIP and isolated power all declining there is no reason to think that at age 32 he could put up the best numbers in his career. The only explanation that I can come up with is that this was the healthiest he has been since 2013. Even given that you have to factor in at age 32 his body is likely to be in decline. The NL league I'm in he went for $11. My thoughts were way too much for him. Yet has turned out to be a huge bargain at that price.

The conclusion that I get out of this is if a player at that age is healthy, has the skills that he has displayed earlier in his career then he could be a bargain going into the season. And then the question comes up how do you know he is healthy other than what is reported. Short of calling his doctor up to get a full medical report that is where the research needs to be and it is still a judgement call. I also think there is a degree of luck involve here.

Thoughts?

I think that was my writeup

[pitbull]

I think that was my writeup

Ya know I think even without the write-up my thoughts would have been close to that.

[Moonlight J]

you should see what I put down for Avisail Garcia :hides:

[revo]

you should see what I put down for Avisail Garcia :hides:

At least with Avisail all his stats besides BA are in line with career norms. And his BA is inflated due to a huge BABIP (.386).

[Msaint]

If we're changing to FIRST HALF breakouts, here's one player whose monster start has masked a truly dismal 2nd half. I'm sure you can all guess who it is w/o even looking it up...but no peeking, who is it?


Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1st Half 80 72 324 297 52 98 22 0 19 63 1 0 22 62 .330 .373 .596 .969 177 11 1 0 4 1 2 .359 112 155
2nd Half 37 34 146 131 23 30 5 0 10 23 0 0 14 35 .229 .301 .496 .798 65 3 0 0 1 0 1 .230 74 107

[revo]

If we're changing to FIRST HALF breakouts, here's one player whose monster start has masked a truly dismal 2nd half. I'm sure you can all guess who it is w/o even looking it up...but no peeking, who is it?


Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1st Half 80 72 324 297 52 98 22 0 19 63 1 0 22 62 .330 .373 .596 .969 177 11 1 0 4 1 2 .359 112 155
2nd Half 37 34 146 131 23 30 5 0 10 23 0 0 14 35 .229 .301 .496 .798 65 3 0 0 1 0 1 .230 74 107

Logan Morrison?