aaron.judge home run rate

[Art Vandelay]

Someone offered me 3-2 odds that judge is going to reach 41 home runs this season?

He is hitting lots but is young, inexperienced in dealing with a long season, and surely his 'weakness' as a hitter is going to be exposed, then shared as the season moves along.

I lean towards taking the bet, anyone have input??

[TranaGreg]

it's close ... but I think I'd take it too

[Redbirds Fan]

I have a little input.

Trevor Story. Jose Abreu.

Only McGwire has hit over 38 as a rookie. The last guy who hit 38 did it 60 years ago.

[TranaGreg]

I have a little input.

Trevor Story. Jose Abreu.

Only McGwire has hit over 38 as a rookie. The last guy who hit 38 did it 60 years ago.

They weren't named Aaron.

[Ken]

I can't predict health so I'll cheat and hedge. If Judge stays healthy and plays 150 games I'll take the over.

[Art Vandelay]

Okay, we settled on the following:

41 hr = $0

each home run above 41, I pay $100

each home run below 41, I get paid $100


Gives me something to watch in yankee land...

[TranaGreg]

Okay, we settled on the following:

41 hr = $0

each home run above 41, I pay $100

each home run below 41, I get paid $100


Gives me something to watch in yankee land...

so if judge goes down with a season-ending injury tomorrow you get $1900 ... hmmm, I bet revo knows a guy who'll do it for $1K, you'd still get $900 ... just saying ...

edit: my Blue Jay homersim had nothing to do with this idea ...

[Sharky]

so if judge goes down with a season-ending injury tomorrow you get $1900 ... hmmm, I bet revo knows a guy who'll do it for $1K, you'd still get $900 ... just saying ...

edit: my Blue Jay homersim had nothing to do with this idea ...

Lol. Is his name Jeff Gilooly?

[DMT]

Okay, we settled on the following:

41 hr = $0

each home run above 41, I pay $100

each home run below 41, I get paid $100


Gives me something to watch in yankee land...

That's a great bet for you.

[Redbirds Fan]

They weren't named Aaron.

Allow me to be the skeptic, even though the New York press has already declared him the AL MVP for 2017 as well as the new Derek Jeter.

I can't find a lot in his past to support this kind of production. Nothing screams out 'budding home run hitter'. He hit .278 in the minors. He moved through the system pretty quickly, and his output increased some, but he was 'old' at every level. Now he is a 25 year-old rookie. Jeter, by comparison, was a 22-year old rookie. (Abreu, 27 as a rookie, hit .350 after the Break in 2014, but dropped from 29 homers to 7, in only 88 fewer ABs.)

He has a great swing, seems to be a good kid, and I love watching him play. What is especially fun is knowing that you might see something that you have never seen before...that is a feeling you don't get from many players I have seen in person. But, a rookie has only hit 40 dingers once, which suggests that it is unlikely it will happen again this year, which makes AV's bet a pretty good one IMO.

[TranaGreg]

hey, I agreed with Art, I said I'd take the bet too!

[Redbirds Fan]

Cody Bellinger is an interesting case, too. Perhaps better ML numbers, and about four years younger. Much smaller kid, but lots of time to fill out.

[Sour Masher]

I'd have taken the bet too, as I think that was a fair line. Still, unless the kid slows down real fast, I'd start getting pretty nervous given the high stakes involved. He is on pace for 58 homers, which, of course he won't get. But I am starting to think he cracks 40 by at least a couple. I'd take the under on this being more than a $400 bet in the end, for whoever wins it, but in taking the under, every homer the kid hits is costing you $100, so that has to sting.

[revo]

so if judge goes down with a season-ending injury tomorrow you get $1900 ... hmmm, I bet revo knows a guy who'll do it for $1K, you'd still get $900 ... just saying ...

edit: my Blue Jay homersim had nothing to do with this idea ...

Hey, even though we hate the Yanks, we like Aaron Judge! My kid met him a few times last year and we have a couple of autographed baseballs.

I think I'd have taken the over.

By the way, anyone notice he's leading the AL in:

Runs
RBIs
HRs
TBs
OBP
SLG
OPS
OPS+

And he's 2nd in BBs and 4th in BA.

[Sour Masher]

He is on pace for the greatest rookie season ever. History says he will fall off big time in the second half, but he has been fun to watch...I wish I had him in either of my leagues.