Keep repeating "it's still early"

[The Dane]

I agree with your overall message that owners need to be disciplined and not swayed by relatively meaningless early results...at the same time watching the standings can help you spot other less disciplined owners who might be panicking or looking to trade based on the early season stats.

Don't be mistaken, I watch my leagues closely. I just don't look at the standings. I scour the transactions every period to see who got dropped and who got picked up. I look over the free agent lists and the rosters of my competitors. I watch the stats of my players, and every player of interest to me (read: almost all of them). I read all the banter.

That is all great information to have. But, you can't say "yeah, I know the standings mean nothing two weeks in, but look at THIS..." without actually changing the way you think about your team. The reason your "THIS" stood out to you, is because you are feeling it acutely because it's happening to your team right now. In and of itself, this isn't so bad, but in a week when you lose a player to injury, you think to yourself, "Oh no, first there was THIS and now there's this injury. I'm in trouble." All of the information that can be taken from the standings now is useless, but it is so difficult (read: nearly impossible) to not use it when you make decisions on your team. If your team is in last place today, your mind thinks of it as Strike One against your team's future, when in reality, it's not that at all. It's not nearly that impactful. Losing your ace or a big bat for the season this early would be Strike One, but a low place in the standings is nothing. So, why distract yourself?

For example, say I build a team I like, one that I feel has a shot at a title, some good studs and some upside plays who should really pan out in the second half. And it's relatively healthy. Then, late-May rolls around and I'm at the bottom of the standings. If I KNOW I'm at the bottom of the standings, I may just pack it in when some contender offers some future I really like. If I haven't looked at the standings, I think the guy needs to go fishing elsewhere because my team is still the team that I thought had a chance. Maybe at the draft, I went cheap on closers and have lots of #2s. At this point in the season, I'd be low in saves, but once Neris and Knebel and Kelley and Hudson and Vizcaino get their new closing gigs after June, I'm sitting pretty in saves all of a sudden and I'm moving up. Then, my stud Conforto finally gets a regular gig and has an All-Star second half. And Stanton manages to stay healthy and finally heats up and hits 40+. And my young Julio Urias comes up and becomes an ace in the second half. These were part of the plan when I built the team and the slow start is not a purely good thing, but it fits well within the acceptable parameters of my design. If I see how far behind I am, and see the flurry of dump trades, then I could very well become antsy and chuck the plan so I at least get something out of this season.

The data is bad, but it's nearly impossible to not use it. For me, the first data point in the standings is Mother's Day.

[The Feral Slasher]

Don't be mistaken, I watch my leagues closely. I just don't look at the standings. I scour the transactions every period to see who got dropped and who got picked up. I look over the free agent lists and the rosters of my competitors. I watch the stats of my players, and every player of interest to me (read: almost all of them). I read all the banter.

That is all great information to have. But, you can't say "yeah, I know the standings mean nothing two weeks in, but look at THIS..." without actually changing the way you think about your team. The reason your "THIS" stood out to you, is because you are feeling it acutely because it's happening to your team right now. In and of itself, this isn't so bad, but in a week when you lose a player to injury, you think to yourself, "Oh no, first there was THIS and now there's this injury. I'm in trouble." All of the information that can be taken from the standings now is useless, but it is so difficult (read: nearly impossible) to not use it when you make decisions on your team. If your team is in last place today, your mind thinks of it as Strike One against your team's future, when in reality, it's not that at all. It's not nearly that impactful. Losing your ace or a big bat for the season this early would be Strike One, but a low place in the standings is nothing. So, why distract yourself?

For example, say I build a team I like, one that I feel has a shot at a title, some good studs and some upside plays who should really pan out in the second half. And it's relatively healthy. Then, late-May rolls around and I'm at the bottom of the standings. If I KNOW I'm at the bottom of the standings, I may just pack it in when some contender offers some future I really like. If I haven't looked at the standings, I think the guy needs to go fishing elsewhere because my team is still the team that I thought had a chance. Maybe at the draft, I went cheap on closers and have lots of #2s. At this point in the season, I'd be low in saves, but once Neris and Knebel and Kelley and Hudson and Vizcaino get their new closing gigs after June, I'm sitting pretty in saves all of a sudden and I'm moving up. Then, my stud Conforto finally gets a regular gig and has an All-Star second half. And Stanton manages to stay healthy and finally heats up and hits 40+. And my young Julio Urias comes up and becomes an ace in the second half. These were part of the plan when I built the team and the slow start is not a purely good thing, but it fits well within the acceptable parameters of my design. If I see how far behind I am, and see the flurry of dump trades, then I could very well become antsy and chuck the plan so I at least get something out of this season.

The data is bad, but it's nearly impossible to not use it. For me, the first data point in the standings is Mother's Day.

I'm not sure you really understood my point...if you are a more disciplined owner (compared to others) you can take potentially take advantage of them because they will do just what you describe above.

[The Dane]

I'm not sure you really understood my point...if you are a more disciplined owner (compared to others) you can take potentially take advantage of them because they will do just what you describe above.

Yes. I wasn't arguing with your point, as much I was expanding on it.

[The Feral Slasher]

Yes. I wasn't arguing with your point, as much I was expanding on it.

Fair enough. Personally I'm more likely to panic looking at an individual performance from my team rather than overall team standings. At least I think I am.

[Ken]

Don't be mistaken, I watch my leagues closely. I just don't look at the standings. I scour the transactions every period to see who got dropped and who got picked up. I look over the free agent lists and the rosters of my competitors. I watch the stats of my players, and every player of interest to me (read: almost all of them). I read all the banter.

That is all great information to have. But, you can't say "yeah, I know the standings mean nothing two weeks in, but look at THIS..." without actually changing the way you think about your team. The reason your "THIS" stood out to you, is because you are feeling it acutely because it's happening to your team right now. In and of itself, this isn't so bad, but in a week when you lose a player to injury, you think to yourself, "Oh no, first there was THIS and now there's this injury. I'm in trouble." All of the information that can be taken from the standings now is useless, but it is so difficult (read: nearly impossible) to not use it when you make decisions on your team. If your team is in last place today, your mind thinks of it as Strike One against your team's future, when in reality, it's not that at all. It's not nearly that impactful. Losing your ace or a big bat for the season this early would be Strike One, but a low place in the standings is nothing. So, why distract yourself?

For example, say I build a team I like, one that I feel has a shot at a title, some good studs and some upside plays who should really pan out in the second half. And it's relatively healthy. Then, late-May rolls around and I'm at the bottom of the standings. If I KNOW I'm at the bottom of the standings, I may just pack it in when some contender offers some future I really like. If I haven't looked at the standings, I think the guy needs to go fishing elsewhere because my team is still the team that I thought had a chance. Maybe at the draft, I went cheap on closers and have lots of #2s. At this point in the season, I'd be low in saves, but once Neris and Knebel and Kelley and Hudson and Vizcaino get their new closing gigs after June, I'm sitting pretty in saves all of a sudden and I'm moving up. Then, my stud Conforto finally gets a regular gig and has an All-Star second half. And Stanton manages to stay healthy and finally heats up and hits 40+. And my young Julio Urias comes up and becomes an ace in the second half. These were part of the plan when I built the team and the slow start is not a purely good thing, but it fits well within the acceptable parameters of my design. If I see how far behind I am, and see the flurry of dump trades, then I could very well become antsy and chuck the plan so I at least get something out of this season.

The data is bad, but it's nearly impossible to not use it. For me, the first data point in the standings is Mother's Day.

One difference for me is I never come out of an auction/draft thinking I have a perfect team or that I'm done. My teams always need to be managed week to week. I'm average/okay on draft day, but I'm better as an in season manager.

And part of what makes me better in season is being willing to throw away a player that I was too high on, or admit a mistake. Given, two weeks of data is not enough to make dramatic changes, but those $1 players or the last 3 or 4 rounds are there to be churned. And the earlier I start churning the more of an impact it will have in the long run. If I wait 2 months before starting, I'm going to be too far behind. But if I start analyzing the data at hand now (with the SSS understanding in mind), small moves can make a big difference. Week 3 stats count the same as week 23 stats, so I'm not going to just ignore them because I was higher on player A than player B a month ago. My player evaluations are constantly being updated with new data available. I look at BrooksBaseball for new velocity information regularly, for example.

I see your point though, it's not time to panic, but at the same time, for me at least, it's time to analyze, just like every week.

[The Dane]

And part of what makes me better in season is being willing to throw away a player that I was too high on, or admit a mistake. Given, two weeks of data is not enough to make dramatic changes, but those $1 players or the last 3 or 4 rounds are there to be churned. And the earlier I start churning the more of an impact it will have in the long run. If I wait 2 months before starting, I'm going to be too far behind. But if I start analyzing the data at hand now (with the SSS understanding in mind), small moves can make a big difference. Week 3 stats count the same as week 23 stats, so I'm not going to just ignore them because I was higher on player A than player B a month ago. My player evaluations are constantly being updated with new data available. I look at BrooksBaseball for new velocity information regularly, for example.

I agree 100%. And it is further proof of my point.

This isn't information garnered from the standings. This is player stats. If you see your $1 player flailing, but you look and you're snugly in first place ten days in, aren't you considerably more likely to hang onto him and ride out his (what you suspect might be just a) slow start, when you know damn well you should be churning him out? Just as you say above? All of things things you mentioned are all great things to do, and things I do myself, and NONE of them require you to look at the standings.

However, if you look at this $1 guy in isolation, without the standings to poison your judgement, I assert you'd be more willing to churn him out, essentially following the plan you had for the season all along.

[Ken]

I agree 100%. And it is further proof of my point.

This isn't information garnered from the standings. This is player stats. If you see your $1 player flailing, but you look and you're snugly in first place ten days in, aren't you considerably more likely to hang onto him and ride out his (what you suspect might be just a) slow start, when you know damn well you should be churning him out?

Just as you say above? All of things things you mentioned are all great things to do, and things I do myself, and NONE of them require you to look at the standings.

However, if you look at this $1 guy in isolation, without the standings to poison your judgement, I assert you'd be more willing to churn him out, essentially following the plan you had for the season all along.

Ah - I see what you are saying.

And for me, no, I'm no more likely to hang on to a player based on my position in the standings. If I'm in first that just means it's time to put some space between my team and 2nd place.

My standings evaluation is based solely on categories. Looking at where I'm ranked relative to other teams simply as a *hint* to check and see if my team needs to be improved in a particular category. I could be in last place in saves and still decide I'm fine if I believe in my closers, for example, but at least it gives me a data point to consider where to look even deeper than I normally look.