Am I nuts to consider Turner over Machado in a Re-Draft?

[revo]

Have my 16-tm redraft league tonight. I have pick #9. I fully expect Trout, Betts, Altuve, Bryant, Arenado & Goldschmidt to be gone. I expect picks #7 & #8 to be among this group: Kershaw, Machado, Harper.

If Kershaw & Harper go, I'd be left with Machado, which is not a bad parting gift. Buuuuuut, would it be out of the realm of possibility to take Turner?

To wit:
- Turner will gain SS eligibility by the end of week one, to go along with his current 2B eligibility;
- Based on his ML and MLB play to date, Turner looks entrenched as a .300+ hitter;
- Machado is a stud, but his SBs dried up and the Orioles had just 19 steals as a team in 2016(!!), so I don't expect a rebound in that department;
- If Turner hits 15 HRs but gets 50+ SBs and hits close to or over .300, aren't those Jose Altuve numbers (at SS)?
- I don't want to say Machado has hit his ceiling, but if he's not stealing bases, it's possible we've seen the best of him. Turner appears to have the sky as the limit.

What say you?

[chancellor]

You're not nuts, but I'd take Donaldson there, if he's available. He's a counting stats machine with a decent BA, and he's good for 5-10 SBs.

I'm not as sold on Turner as you - he's not shown that kind of power in his minor league career, had an outlandish BABIP while up, and hardly took a walk while up (though he was better in AAA). And he struck out at a healthy clip in both AAA and with the Nats. OTOH, the positional flexibility is nice and the speed is real. It's not like he'd be a terrible 1st round pick if he goes .280-90-10-55-50.

[dslaw]

Not nuts but maybe overthinking. Machado won't have 0 steals this year but he won't have 20 either. Something like 5-10 steals to go with his 35+ HRs, .300 average, 100 RBIs and 100+ runs again. And he qualifies at SS this year. Turner hit over .300 in the minors but hit .340 last year. Will he do that again? Will pitchers be able to adjust on him and he struggles somewhat? I would take the proven production of Machado.

[revo]

Not nuts but maybe overthinking. Machado won't have 0 steals this year but he won't have 20 either. Something like 5-10 steals to go with his 35+ HRs, .300 average, 100 RBIs and 100+ runs again. And he qualifies at SS this year. Turner hit over .300 in the minors but hit .340 last year. Will he do that again? Will pitchers be able to adjust on him and he struggles somewhat? I would take the proven production of Machado.

5-10 SBs really aren't the difference, but when you consider that Joey Rickard led the O's with 4 SBs last year and everyone else had no more than 2 SBs, I don't see it. They obviously had some major philosophy shift where they feel why potentially take a guy off the bases when the next guy up can hit a HR.

[Sharky]

I would consider Turner. Depends on your goals for first rounder. Machado in theory is "safer." But he no longer steals bases. Personally I like dependability for round one (Arenado, Donaldson, etc). Machado offers that. Turner has upside but is so young and his value is all about his wheels. That's a risky play.

[joncarlos]

Play out what your first few picks will look like. Figure out what makes you happier. If you take Turner and the best guy on the board in round 2 is Villar, do you take him? What if the best 3 are Villar/Marte/Lindor?

What if you take Machado and then you're picking from Xander/Lindor/Story in the 2nd? What if Seager falls to you? What if Story is the best guy on the board? Are you happy with 2 MIs who don't run? Or at least your first 2 picks not giving you any steals?

Are you thinking you'd like to take Thor or Sale or Kluber in round 2? If so what kind of hitters will be around to pair with your 1st rounder when you finally pick again in round 3?

Are you thinking about going more Votto/Freeman/EE in round 2? If so maybe Turner pairs more with those guys.

The late round 3B pool is pretty deep so odds are good you'll want Machado at SS, but the flexibility is nice.

Turner has hit the ball harder in ST than I expected. I was initially thinking .270-.280, 12-14 HR and 40-50 steals.

[revo]

Play out what your first few picks will look like. Figure out what makes you happier. If you take Turner and the best guy on the board in round 2 is Villar, do you take him? What if the best 3 are Villar/Marte/Lindor?

What if you take Machado and then you're picking from Xander/Lindor/Story in the 2nd? What if Seager falls to you? What if Story is the best guy on the board? Are you happy with 2 MIs who don't run? Or at least your first 2 picks not giving you any steals?

Are you thinking you'd like to take Thor or Sale or Kluber in round 2? If so what kind of hitters will be around to pair with your 1st rounder when you finally pick again in round 3?

Are you thinking about going more Votto/Freeman/EE in round 2? If so maybe Turner pairs more with those guys.

The late round 3B pool is pretty deep so odds are good you'll want Machado at SS, but the flexibility is nice.

Turner has hit the ball harder in ST than I expected. I was initially thinking .270-.280, 12-14 HR and 40-50 steals.

Yeah, I usually plan out the first 3-to-5 rounds.

- Yes, I expect at least two of Bogaerts/Lindor/Villar to be there. If I get Harper in the first, I'm likely grabbing one of them. If I get Machado/Turner, I'm going to pass on these three.
- If I take Machado or Turner, the plan is for a SP (likely to be Kluber or Scherzer) in Rd 2. If neither of those SPs are there (and I expect Thor to be gone by then), I'd probably grab the best power bat.


Part of my issue is that I typically leave SBs for one big base stealer type, and that strategy has had mixed results in recent years. Going with Machado, with his 0 SB potential, may continue the strategy that I'd like to move away from.

[Moonlight J]

Not nuts. Exactly what Sporer & I did in LABR

[Sharky]

Not nuts. Exactly what Sporer & I did in LABR

So not nuts but certifiably insane?

[Pogues]

Not nuts. Exactly what Sporer & I did in LABR

That's your proof he's not nuts??

[revo]

Machado went off the board at #8, I took Harper at #9.

[Hammer]

Machado went off the board at #8, I took Harper at #9.

and your team stinks.

[Ken]

Machado went off the board at #8, I took Harper at #9.

Seems like a best case scenario for you. You still get the upside play, as Harper has the talent to be #1 overall, and you get a more reliable, proven option.