AL-only reserve draft targets

[SlideRule]

Last year you guys (and a lot of FanGraphs) helped me identify guys like Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, and Sam Dyson as good reserve round picks in my AL-only keeper league. I'm looking for some new input this year on how you'd rank the following guys as reserve picks. Our league allows 8 keepers for 3yrs max, and the auction (already done) is limited to MLB-level players (with some exceptions, like this year Moncada and Mondesi were auctioned). There are some undrafted MLB dregs left that might be worth considering, but given what seems to be a lack of high-end prospects this year I could use some help determining who to target with an eye towards 2017 and maybe 2018. I don't plan 3 yrs in advance. I have the 8th pick, so the top guys (Giolito) likely won't be available. Any other "under the radar" guys you like? I've had success in the past targeting prospects out of college that tend to move through the minors quicker, and are a bit older. Who is this year's Alex Bregman/Andrew Benintendi? Or a good closer-in-waiting to stash?

MLB types:
D Espinosa
M Bush
S Casilla
D DeShields
N Karns
C Green
B Rondon
J Tomlin
M Feliz
Y Sanchez
T Beckham
J Biagini
D Mengden
T Ross
D Norris
K Vargas
B Brach
C Rasmus
Y Alonso
R Dull
R Refsnyder
J Smoak
B Park
A Hicks
D Pompey

Prospect types:
Giolito
De Leon
Barreto
G Torres
R Lopez
Gallo
Frazier
Zimmer
S Travis
P O'Brien
T O'Neill
Sisco
Paulino
W Adames
AJ Reed
M Chapman
Jacoby Jones
B Honeywell
F Martes
? ? ?

Thanks!

[mjl]

Park has looked really good in ST and might be worth picking up. So has Alonso but he has more history to make this look lucky rather than an actual change. I don't see anyone else super exciting in that list, though Raul Mondesi Jr probably isn't owned and worthy of consideration.

Short term prospects: Torres, Frazier, Zimmer, Adames are probably the best out of that list. Zimmer is the most likely to be in the majors this year. Decent closer candidates would be Zack Burdi and Joe Jimenez. Vlad Guerrero Jr is also worth a look.

[joncarlos]

Yeah, Park could definitely be interesting. Vargas has some foot thing that might allow Park to sneak onto the 25-man and maybe he runs away with the job.

I think Bush and Rondon are decent closers in waiting. Neither of the guys in front of them is super likely to lose their job, and there's some competition in Kela and Jimenez respectively, but they're interesting.

Deshields could be a really nice speed play if he finds PT (requires just about anyone to get hurt in TEX, given Profar's flexibility)

Zimmer cut his K rate a lot and the Indians CF job is a train wreck, but I still think he's a longshot this year. Could be a nice keeper if .240-15-15 next year is interesting to you.

Casilla isn't good but he'll be part of some kind of committee, which I expect Doolittle will ultimately head.

If that D Norris is Daniel I'd be all over him but I'm guessing it's Derek.

I like Karns a lot in that park if you need another SP.

Depending on how deep you go I'd consider Alonso with a later pick just in case it's a real thing. Remember, he was a super prospect like 10 years ago, so he once had power, and maybe he figured out how to unlock it.

Barretto, Adames and Torres are all pretty similar, guys who could end up anywhere on the infield, need another half year at AAA but could theoretically be up before the end of the year and start next year. Barretto probably has the best opportunity - OAK 2B sucks - but I keep wondering when Torres will slide into that 3B job in Yankee Stadium.

Similarly, Frazier doesn't have a ton in his way, but he needs the Yankees to sort through their veterans first.

[mike9289]

Brian Cashman was on with "John and Susan" during a broadcast last week. He said Torres was a no to replace Didi at the start of the season. But said that mid year would not be out of the question. They are sending Torres to Trenton to start the season and the reason why was kind of interesting. Cashman said that Torres has never played in cold weather before so I assume they don't want him doing that for the 1st time in NY. Bottom line is that this guy will be good and he will be good soon.

[chancellor]

Of the MLB types, if you want a CIW, I'd go get Bruce Rondon and then Matt Bush. K-Rod's velocity is continuing to diminish, and I think he's coming close to the point where his FB/Change differential will be small enough that he'll fall off the cliff. Also, as joncarlos noted, DeShields could be a good play among the hitters, and while I don't buy into the Alonzo hype, he still does have a pretty much regular job and can fill a hole at 1B/CI/DH in a pinch.

For prospects, I like Zimmer first, Barreto next, and Frazier third among the hitters. If you're looking for some pitching, and figure Giolito and Deleon will be gone, I'd look at Honeywell and Martes.

[Gregg]

Brian Cashman was on with "John and Susan" during a broadcast last week. He said Torres was a no to replace Didi at the start of the season. But said that mid year would not be out of the question. They are sending Torres to Trenton to start the season and the reason why was kind of interesting. Cashman said that Torres has never played in cold weather before so I assume they don't want him doing that for the 1st time in NY. Bottom line is that this guy will be good and he will be good soon.

Of all those listed for a reserve roster, I take Torres with the first pick. He will help this year. Depending on rules make a nice keeper.

[SlideRule]

Thanks for the input, folks.

The first picks have been:
Gleyber Torres
Reynaldo Lopez
Lucas Giolito
Kennys Vargas
Matt Bush

I pick #8 (and then 13, reverse snake). My needs after auction are basically catcher (I punted and got Chirinos and Bruce Maxwell) and SP (have Gausman/Duffy/Rodon/Cotton as starters, and Devenski/Jones/Dyson/Osuna). Other weak spot in lineup is Mallex Smith as a UT, and only one 2B (Travis). Given that I'm kind of targeting Nate Karns, Derek Norris, DeShields, or maybe Rondon or Matt Bush as a closers in waiting - if they hit they would be good trade bait.

That said, the prospects with keeper potential go fast in my league so if I want one of them I should probably get one early. Salaries start at $8 for the first round and go down to $1 in the 8th round, and that's their keeper price. So to be a good keeper your reserve prospect has to be worth more than the ~$8-$6 salary they get assigned.

[mike9289]

DeShields could be the guy you thought Mallex Smith was going to be. Seems to have worked himself into serious playing time with the great spring.

[SlideRule]

I took DeShields and Karns with my first 2 picks. Could have had Zimmer/Frazier/Adames but am more interested in help this year, and they all have some major warts still, I think. Would you have taken De Leon over Karns? I'm still holding out hope for Karns and his missing FB velocity to be rediscovered. The first round went:

Torres, Gleyber
Lopez, Reynaldo
Giolito, Lucas
Vargas, Kennys
Bush, Matt
Barreto, Franklin
Brach, Brad
DeShields, Delino
Adames, Willy
Zimmer, Bradley

Frazier, Clint
Martes, Francis
Karns, Nathan

[chancellor]

If you're more interested in pitching help this year, then Karns was the right pick. I'd have taken DeLeon, but Karns is certainly solid there.

[SlideRule]

Who seems like a better speculative closer option in an AL only - Zach Burdi or Joe Jimenez? Would be at a keeper salary for 2018-19 potentially.

[joncarlos]

Who seems like a better speculative closer option in an AL only - Zach Burdi or Joe Jimenez? Would be at a keeper salary for 2018-19 potentially.

Zach is the White Sox Burdi right? Nate Jones is signed cheap for a while. Carson Fulmer could also end up a late inning reliever. I'd take Jimenez who only has to fight off Bruce Rondon.

[SlideRule]

Yes, Zach Burdi of CHW. I think the idea was Burdi maybe has more skills than Jimenez, and there's a (good?) chance both Robertson AND Jones could be moved for future pieces by Chicago. Who knows...

[Sharky]

Austin Pruitt would be a great late rounder for you. Made the team as RP but could be nice SP as soon as this year.

[joncarlos]

Yes, Zach Burdi of CHW. I think the idea was Burdi maybe has more skills than Jimenez, and there's a (good?) chance both Robertson AND Jones could be moved for future pieces by Chicago. Who knows...

Always a possibility. I would almost be more inclined to target Nick than Zach. The Twins bullpen is pretty messy long term unless Berrios ends up there. Tyler Jay? Fernando Romero? Tyler Duffey? Trevor May? Which failed prospect(s) end up closing there?