Drumroll.....Another RJEL Team

[Big Tymer]

OBSERVATIONS: So I've been in this league awhile and have always been confident in anticipating auction pricing but within 10 minutes it was clear I needed to adjust my settings as pitching prices were out of control which in turn meant hitters were going a little less than I expected. Initially I thought that maybe it was just the top shelf SP but higher than expected prices continued even into the lower tiers. Thankfully I was never intending to invest in much SP but still it had an effect on the hitters and in turn my draft execution.

PRE-AUCTION STRATEGY: Going in, I was pretty confident that I had the best set of keepers and farm players which in turn gave me confidence that I could fill in any post-draft holes fairly easily should I need to. I had a fair amount of SBs in the bank with keepers so my plan was to buy OBP and power or at least lean that way. Didn't have hard targets and as most likely observed in the draft room I generally am in the bidding on everyone up to my bid limits. Part of this is price enforcing and part is you never know where the value will come and if you have the right bid targets then imo you should be willing to pay to that amount. On the P front, I had 4 strong, cheap SP in the bank and maybe 2 closers. Thus, I wanted to buy a top-closer and then find some value and depth at SP. I had Benintendi, Swanson and Glasnow in the farm so knew I would be dropping some guys post draft and thus could live in dollar days a bit. As others mentioned, this league allows for mid-week roster changes and thus having strong MR is essential imo. Maybe the trend won't persist, but it always seems the relievers in Baltimore pick up Wins so was targeting that bullpen more than most.

KEY AUCTION MOMENTS: Bought Kimbrel with the first toss so checked the box with closer pretty quickly. Not long after, I somehow ended up with Goldy at $61 which was not something I ever planned for but would have paid more. Love the OBP cushion and extra SB but it caused me to shuffle the money around a bit. Bought Cargo for $32 not too long after and felt ok about that but then followed that up with more OF buys in Gordon and Granderson. In general I was fine with the prices but I have a lot of OFs in the minors not to mention Benintendi so would have preferred a CI option but again you can't pick and choose your spots when looking for value. For SP, I got Samardzjia for $13 which I was happy with given other SP prices and the fact that he'll give me innings on a good team in a pitchers park. No auction is perfect and I'm at a loss for why I was in the bidding on Chris Carter let alone to $7 but oh well. I wanted power but not even sure he'll get ABs. 2B ended up a position I punted and as a result I chased 3 dollar players in Dietrich, Merrifield & Utley hoping one works out but not sure they will. Thus, CI and 2B are positions I will need to upgrade but not too bad on the whole.

TEAM:
C = Russell Martin $11
1B = Goldy $61
2B = Dietrich $1
SS = Russell $6 (keeper)
3B = Jose Ramirez $2 (keeper)
MI = Dansby Swanson $0 (minors)
CI = Chris Carter $7
OF1 = Mookie Betts $20 (keeper)
OF2 = Lorenzo Cain $16 (keeper)
OF3 = Benintendi $0 (minors)
OF4 = CarGo $32
OF5 = Alex Gordon $16
UT1 = Granderson $14
UT2 = Justin Smoak $1

Bench (likely cutting one of these for callups): Merrifield $1 and Utley $1

SP1 = Thor $2 (keeper)
SP2 = Porcello $7 (keeper)
SP3 = Taillon $6 (keeper)
SP4 = Fulmer $5 (keeper)
SP5 = Shark $13
SP6 = Eduardo Rodriguez $6
CL1 = Kimbrel $23
CL2 = Bedrosian $2 (keeper)
CL3 = Watson $5 (keeper)

Bench = Triggs $2, Givens $2, Brach $2, Volquez $1, Bailey $1 (wanted someone I could DL for a callup)

FARM (excluding callups slotted in above roster:
Hitters = Brinson, Zimmer, Senzel, Albies, Maitan, Acuna, Kyle Tucker, Devers, Frazier, Meadows, Alford
Pitchers = Glasnow & Reyes

FINAL THOUGHTS: CI and 2B aside I'm very happy with how this played out but want to reiterate what Eno has recently said in that you need to have a decision tree type structure for the auction as you never know how it will really go. Inevitably you won't get all the guys you want and you'll likely get guys you were never planning to. This is why I am such an advocate of draft software like Rotolab as it really helps to work thru your roster as it comes together and identify gaps before they become too problematic.

[Hornsby]

I think that your hitting is killer, power, speed and OPB, the holy trinity. Don't like Grandy or Smoak, but at those prices, you'll be fine. really don't like Carter, but he could luck into 20 homers and his low AB's will actually help, rather than hurt you. I think that you might see frazier this year, and maybe Senzel, but not until about mid-season, barring an injury. You're right about 2nd base, but that's nitpicking, IMO.

Your pitching is great, nothing but studley, You need bedrock to take the job and keep it, as I think Watson loses his gig as closer. I actually like Volquez, just didn't have the money to top you...mistake on my part. Bailey may never pitch again...but you needed the spot.

Probably the best team in the league, IMO...clear favorite to win it all.

[The Dane]

Great team. Well-constructed with few holes. At 2B, Deitrich should be fine for the first month or so, but then as his PT fades, you'll need to patch that.

For the prices paid, you have the best pitching the league. Maybe you could have more saves, but you have plenty for starters. I just love SP1-4. No one has a better top-4 than you. I'm not so high on Samardzija, but you certainly didn't overpay and I don't think he'll be bad, just meh.

Your farm is great and should help you patch holes this year.

This is a contender right off the bat.

That said, you have four core guys that I have bad feelings about this year:
1) I think Goldschmidt will see his SB opportunities go way down, tanking a good portion of his value. He's still a stud, but you would not have gone to $61 if you thought he'd cap at 10 SBs.
2) CarGo looks to be aging quickly to me, and while he should still be valuable, he worries me. And I doubt he ends the year hitting half his games in Coors, which also hurts his worth some.
3) I don't believe in Watson at all. At $5, he's a fine risk, but I think someone else will be closing there by the end of May.
4) And Syndergaard's new body scares me: All that new muscle, that infinitely repeatable delivery, that slapstick medical staff. I see an injury on the horizon. He looks like Prior2.0 to me. That doesn't mean I wouldn't be ecstatic to ride him for $2(!), but this team absolutely needs him healthy to win this.

Just my thoughts, but I think you could have a winner here.

[Big Tymer]

Thanks guys. I have read something similar on Goldy regarding the SBs but to be honest I had him valued well north of $61 so even some backsliding there would not have me regretting anything. Secure asset imo so as long as he has an OBP north of .400 I'm likely happy with this. Cargo wasn't someone I targeted so see your points and trade risk though I actually think COL will be pretty good. Not someone I thought I'd end up with but also not someone I think will dramatically underperform what I paid.

Not sure why but I end up with Grandy on my teams a lot over the years. League average OBP and power and by and large on most stats. Not sexy, but pretty safe imo.

[Andrewski]

We've discussed this, but if things generally fall right for you, this is going to be a hard team to beat. But that requires dealing minor leaguers, imo, something which I know you have a hard time doing. You have a studly group on minor leaguers and if you leverage them correctly, I'm not sure there will be a ton of competition.

But yes, Chris Carter? At least he was only $7....

[Big Tymer]

At least right now I'm telling myself I'll deal so hopefully I can rip that band-aid off sooner than later to upgrade CI/2B. In some ways I have the market nearly cornered on top prospect bats (nearly as I couldn't get them all as much as I tried) which should create a market efficiency in my favor. At least that is how I will position it when people try to deal for them

[bryanbutler]

not much to say. you had far and away the best keeper set, and did well in the auction, both with your buys and your price enforcing. not a big fan of the carter buy, but you can survive it. your kimbrel buy was great - before folks really realized that the pitching prices would do what they did (though i like my $19 robertson as well). goldy was expensive but you could afford him. like the cargo and gordon buys. shark, well, not sure what he'll do this year, but at that price, he could return good value. anyway, i see you as the front runner now, and unless something crazy happens you should win it going away.

[mjl]

For the prices paid, you have the best pitching the league. Maybe you could have more saves, but you have plenty for starters. I just love SP1-4. No one has a better top-4 than you.

I won't argue the "for the prices paid" clause, but there's no way his top four is better than mine. He might have me on depth - my #8 and #9 are shaky at best - but Scherzer, Arrieta, Gausman, Manaea has to be ahead of that group.

[The Dane]

I won't argue the "for the prices paid" clause, but there's no way his top four is better than mine. He might have me on depth - my #8 and #9 are shaky at best - but Scherzer, Arrieta, Gausman, Manaea has to be ahead of that group.

Of course. Yours are better, but he paid only $20 for his and his are damn good.

[Big Tymer]

The auction prices for pitching makes me now wonder if pitching prospects or rookie contract top-30 pitchers will start be viewed differently as generally most of us have spit on pitching prospects. To Dane's point, my top 4 may not rank by stats as 1 (and that may be debatable) but the price paid affords so much flexibility. However Keith's decision not to extend Martinez is probably evidence that we may value pitching but just not the same pitcher over the long term given the seemingly inevitableness of injury.

[The Dane]

The auction prices for pitching makes me now wonder if pitching prospects or rookie contract top-30 pitchers will start be viewed differently as generally most of us have spit on pitching prospects. To Dane's point, my top 4 may not rank by stats as 1 (and that may be debatable) but the price paid affords so much flexibility. However Keith's decision not to extend Martinez is probably evidence that we may value pitching but just not the same pitcher over the long term given the seemingly inevitableness of injury.

Yup. I've been thinking along these same lines.

We have to value pitchers because we have to have them. But the way we (should) value them is vastly different from the way we value hitters. For hitters, we value long-term projections, and that's how teenagers like Kevin Maitan can be a #1 pick. We also value their current production and past production. So, a hitter has lots of way to look at his value. A pitcher, on the other hand, has only his immediate value. We must ignore his past, because things can go south so quickly. We have to ignore his future because it's impossible to project. This makes long term contracts on pitchers absolute folly. There are some exceptions, namely pushing a pitcher with some skill and job security one more year so he can be used as a trade chip, is a reasonable thing. And paying for current production is reasonable too. Kershaw is about a close to a sure thing as there is, so pay for the stats, but pay only for 2017, because who knows what 2018 will bring.

In addition, this may seem a little off-topic, but it's goes along with this idea: so much of what we value in what a pitcher does, seems to me, to be wholly dependent on the manager. Will he make the rotation even though it seems to us observers that he's earned it? Ask the manager. Will he be allowed to tough it out and stick through the fifth inning to get a chance at a win or will he get yanked at the first chance of trouble? Ask the manager. Will he get a chance at a complete game? Ask the manager. Will he take the start in Colorado even though they have had an off-day and the flexibility to move the rotation around? Ask the manager. Will he get save opportunities? Ask the manager.

Some of these decisions apply to hitters too, especially around SBs, but more of a hitter's projection is based on what the hitter actually DOES. If a guy hits well and can play defense, he'll more often than not, be put in a position to help a fantasy team. If a pitcher pitches well, he can very often be put in a position to earn very little for a fantasy team. Like set-up guys who are clearly better than their closer teammate. In just the NL alone, Barraclough, Vizcaino, Knebel, Reed, Neris, Hudson, and Capps appear to have at least commensurate, but probably superior, skills to their closers, but they remain set-up guys. This also happens to an extent with hitters, but not as much. If a guy is hitting, the manager will almost always find a way to get him into the lineup where he can produce stats. A starting pitcher who is just slinging it, but hasn't "earned" a rotation spot over an incumbent or a high-priced free agent, or taken the closer role, is stuck in long or middle relief, meaning that in many formats, he has zero value to fantasy owners. Again, this does happen to hitters too, but much less often, or so it appears to me.

Throw in the increased chance of injury and you have a player who cannot be trusted at all. Pay for what he can give you right now because any attempt to squeeze value out of his future is impossible to methodize. To adapt an adage: Date the pitcher. Marry the hitter.

[deaccat]

How much did Bird go for? Is this 12 team mixed $260?

[The Dane]

How much did Bird go for? Is this 12 team mixed $260?

It's an 18-team mixed and Bird was kept at $2.