NL Keeper Help

[Sharky]

Keepers due in a few days for our 12-team NL-only 5x5 league. Slim pickings on my team and likely to be a rebuilding year. We can keep up to 7 major leaguers plus 3 minor leaguers (only 3 minors slots though). Would love your input on keepers / possible trade ideas. Here are the candidates:

Paul Goldschmidt 49 (option year)
Starling Marte 40 (option year)
Yoenis Cespedes 35
Asdrubal Cabrera 8
Tommy Joseph 16
Jordy Mercer 3
Andrew Susac 2
John Lackey 9 (option year)
Jon Lester 26
Adam Ottavino 11
Minors: Albies, Tapia, Winker (may keep all 3, but wouldn't mind dealing one so I can pick up another minor leaguer)

No-brainers: Cabrera, Lackey, Lester, Joseph
May keep: Marte, Mercer, Cespedes, Goldschmidt

If Marte bats 3rd for PIT, I think his SB fall but RBI climb.

Any suggestions? Who would you keep? Thanks!

[Hornsby]

I don't know what the inflation is like in your league, but in our 18 team mixer last night, Goldy went for 61...so I say keep him. Probably Otto as well, since I'm not sure how that situation will shake out. Might be a time share for a while while they ease Holland back in. Probably keep Marte as well, it's a lot of money to keep, but all of your expensive guys would got for at least that in the auction. Deal/drop Winker for another minors guy, IMO...

Best of luck!

[chancellor]

Agree with Horns on cutting Winker. I'd keep Goldy for sure, and if you think you're rebuilding don't extend. I'm not as high on Marte as others, so I'd keep Cespedes. I'd probably gamble on Susac, though Ottavino is a worthy play too.

[The Dane]

I love Goldschmidt, but I think he'll be lucky to get 10 SBs this year, meaning that he value is primarily dependent on his awesome OBP and replaceable power. Hopefully, the power will pick up, but I see him as being a massive disappointment to the people who paid full price or overpaid for him (like me, in one league).

I think Ottavino is worth considering. I see him eventually landing and holding the closers role, but even if that takes a while, he'll come close to generating $11 on just Ks and good ratios.

I've been milking Mercer these last two years and he's been a cheap source of mostly-empty ABs. I think the well runs dry this year. He's worth a chance at $3, but may have trouble earning it.

I really like Winker if this is an OBP league, in fact, if it is I think he is far and away your best minor leaguer. I think Tapia may be a good fourth OF, maybe with career value arc like fellow Rockie, Gerardo Parra. I don't think he's a stud as much as a fine piece. I like Albies too, but I'd probably cut him if I had to cut someone, just because the offensive bar for him is so much lower to reach his prospect status.

[Sharky]

Would you consider keeping fewer than 7? I can certainly toss several of these guys back.

Dane, this is traditional 5x5 (so BA not OBP). The minor leaguers don't count against our 7 keepers. It's a separate minor league roster (max 3 keepers, max 3 slots). Really interesting you're so high on Winker (though maybe that was just assuming OBP). Most seem to want to cut him.

Kinda agree on Goldschmidt. As to Ottavino, I can't imagine he costs more than $11 at auction. He pitches in Coors and has uncertain prospects for the closer role.

I'm considering going in with fewer keepers than 7.

[The Dane]

Dane, this is traditional 5x5 (so BA not OBP). The minor leaguers don't count against our 7 keepers. It's a separate minor league roster (max 3 keepers, max 3 slots). Really interesting you're so high on Winker (though maybe that was just assuming OBP). Most seem to want to cut him.

Yeah, I base his value primarily on his OBP, which will be super-studly for a kid. His power and speed is purely speculative at this point, so in an AVG league, I probably toss him and keep the other two.

I often go in with fewer keepers if I don't have a great list or I'm rebuilding after a title.