Two-catcher league strategy question

[Pauly]

I have read a few strategy columns on two-catcher leagues and I was wondering what you guys think of the different strategy options. This Fangraphs article has a decent outline: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/in-...tcher-leagues/

Personally, I want to try out a new strategy this season in my mixed leagues (for me), and I want to see if you guys think it is viable:
So to start with, I am buying into the notion that $1 endgame catchers almost ALWAYS return a negative value (for example their crappy avg. outweighs any positive you get from their 8 HR and 40 RBIs). Taking this into account, and also accounting for the fact I will never pay enough for a top-of-the-line catcher, my strategy is to completely punt the second C. I will buy a middle-tier C for a reasonable price (say, Russell Martin for example), and then buy a guy who will NOT be getting playing time (barring call-up) for a buck at the end (say Jorge Alfaro or Chance Sisco). Thus, you avoid the negative return of a "true $1 catcher" (the Chris Iannetta's of the world).

Does this make sense, or am I better off taking an Iannetta instead of a minor leaguer?

[Ken]

I have read a few strategy columns on two-catcher leagues and I was wondering what you guys think of the different strategy options. This Fangraphs article has a decent outline: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/in-...tcher-leagues/

Personally, I want to try out a new strategy this season in my mixed leagues (for me), and I want to see if you guys think it is viable:
So to start with, I am buying into the notion that $1 endgame catchers almost ALWAYS return a negative value (for example their crappy avg. outweighs any positive you get from their 8 HR and 40 RBIs). Taking this into account, and also accounting for the fact I will never pay enough for a top-of-the-line catcher, my strategy is to completely punt the second C. I will buy a middle-tier C for a reasonable price (say, Russell Martin for example), and then buy a guy who will NOT be getting playing time (barring call-up) for a buck at the end (say Jorge Alfaro or Chance Sisco). Thus, you avoid the negative return of a "true $1 catcher" (the Chris Iannetta's of the world).

Does this make sense, or am I better off taking an Iannetta instead of a minor leaguer?

To restate the strategy, you are willing to sacrifice 8 HR/40 RBI/40 R you mentioned above, in order to preserve your AVG category.

I'm not sure that strategy works out well in end. Looking at an example of standings gain points you are giving up ~1-2 points in HRs and 2-3 points in both runs and RBI.

http://www.smartfantasybaseball.com/2017/01/standings-gain-points-for-nfbc-leagues/

Lets average those out and guess that you give up 7 points.

7 standings gain points is worth ~.010 of AVG.

Assuming the rest of your team hits ~.270 in ~7000 ABs, in order to drop your average down to .260, your catcher would have to hit .085 in 400 ABs.

So, for me, the math does not work out here.

I'd rather go for the "Snag two mid-tier catchers. Yawn." plan referenced in the fangraphs article. Sometimes boring is good.

[Moonlight J]

I have one going up at Rotowire today as well. That second tier of catchers is mostly inseparable depending on your flavor for assuming risks. I've been grabbing Gomes and Hedges as C2's but do not plan on going that shallow at catcher in Tout on Saturday.

[joncarlos]

A few things to try

-Draft both catchers on the same team. This works if they both contribute and/or aren't completely terrible. Bandy and Susac. Grandal and Barnes. Wolters and Murphy. TDA and Rivera. At least you get close to 162 games of production. If you believe Mesoraco can be healthy, try Mesoraco and Barnhart.

-Draft the really terrible AVG but some power guy as your C2 and just draft more AVG. Jason Castro. Zunino. Maybe Gomes.

-Find a C2 who plays once a week and hits for a good AVG with zero power. Sadly these guys have mostly disappeared. Chris Hermann maybe? I actually really like him, maybe he gets some time in the outfield while Iannetta and Mathis do most of the catching. Cervelli probably fits here.

-Go the 2 boring catchers route. It's boring but it works.

[The Dane]

Unless I can find some hidden value in some catcher whose ADP is way lower than it should be, I punt BOTH catcher positions. But then, I play wholly in keeper leagues. In redraft leagues, this doesn't work like this.

First, catchers suck and so if I spend well, the extra few dollars is better spent elsewhere.

Second, I find that teams with high-salaried catchers almost never ever are in contention at the trade trade deadline. And usually, the $15 catcher had produced $5 of value at that point, and so now there's a player that one owner sees as a drag, someone who did not produce enough to give him a title and a salary too high to be a keeper for the next year. But to you, the guy with two $1 catchers, that guy is a HUGE boost to your team and so easy to fit into your roster. That catcher can often be had for much less than the added value he will provide.

Third, every now and then, you can grab a gem for $1.

So, I let the other owners pay for catchers. I budget $2 for two spots and play it as best as I can from there.

[dslaw]

Agree with Ken. Your overall batting average may drop a couple of points but not enough to offset the loss of the other categories.

[Pauly]

Unless I can find some hidden value in some catcher whose ADP is way lower than it should be, I punt BOTH catcher positions. But then, I play wholly in keeper leagues. In redraft leagues, this doesn't work like this.

First, catchers suck and so if I spend well, the extra few dollars is better spent elsewhere.

Second, I find that teams with high-salaried catchers almost never ever are in contention at the trade trade deadline. And usually, the $15 catcher had produced $5 of value at that point, and so now there's a player that one owner sees as a drag, someone who did not produce enough to give him a title and a salary too high to be a keeper for the next year. But to you, the guy with two $1 catchers, that guy is a HUGE boost to your team and so easy to fit into your roster. That catcher can often be had for much less than the added value he will provide.

Third, every now and then, you can grab a gem for $1.

So, I let the other owners pay for catchers. I budget $2 for two spots and play it as best as I can from there.

This has always been my strategy too. Thinking I wanted to try something different

[SlideRule]

To restate the strategy, you are willing to sacrifice 8 HR/40 RBI/40 R you mentioned above, in order to preserve your AVG category.

I'm not sure that strategy works out well in end. Looking at an example of standings gain points you are giving up ~1-2 points in HRs and 2-3 points in both runs and RBI.

http://www.smartfantasybaseball.com/2017/01/standings-gain-points-for-nfbc-leagues/

Lets average those out and guess that you give up 7 points.

7 standings gain points is worth ~.010 of AVG.

Assuming the rest of your team hits ~.270 in ~7000 ABs, in order to drop your average down to .260, your catcher would have to hit .085 in 400 ABs.

So, for me, the math does not work out here.

I'd rather go for the "Snag two mid-tier catchers. Yawn." plan referenced in the fangraphs article. Sometimes boring is good.

Ken's reply is thoughtful as always, but I don't think you are taking the broader picture into account. It's not just whether 2 mid-range catchers are better than 1 good/mid C and 1 $1 low-PT catcher. It's what do you use that extra money on. I agree that I'd rather have a mid-range C than a bad one that doesn't play, but there might be a scenario where the $9 that you don't spend on Beef Welington because you got Roberto Perez instead can mean the difference between Nelson Cruz and Jose Bautista. Or between Evis Andrus and Andrelton Simmons, to use another AL example. You'll make a good bit of the points lost by the 8 HR/40 RBI/40 R in catcher difference there, if not more.

EDIT - or perhaps I missed the point? And the question was is a "doesn't play" $1 C better than a crappy "does play" $1 C? If so, my bad.

[Ken]

EDIT - or perhaps I missed the point? And the question was is a "doesn't play" $1 C better than a crappy "does play" $1 C? If so, my bad.

Apparently you DIDN'T miss the point because you stated it right here.

The analysis I did was just between rostering a "crappy" $1 catcher who will give you 8 HR and 40 RBI but pull your AVG down, vs the "sneaky" play of paying $1 for a guy in the minors so you get 0 stats (and avoid a "negative" return). The analysis, at least in my mind, suggests that taking 0s in HR/RBI/R to avoid moving down in AVG is counter productive.

Personally, I prefer to do neither, and go with 2 mid tier guys instead, but you are correct, that decision requires analyzing the relative values of your extra $s spent to get to that mid tier catcher and how it affects your other positions.

[SlideRule]

Yeah, I did miss the point, then re-read it because I was surprised that you wouldn't have thought of what I originally wrote in the first place... and found out that I had indeed missed the point. I'm back on the same page now!

[SlideRule]

Also, I have found historically in my AL only 2-C league, people all feel this way and as a result the mid-range catchers that have a predicted value of $7-12 end up going for $15 or more because nobody wants to get stuck with the dregs. So it gets a little more complicated - how much are you willing to "overpay" for a mid-range catcher (to get more than the 8 HR/40 RBI/40 R) vs. settling for the scrap heap for $1? Is the overpay for the catcher upgrade worth it, or are you better off overpaying at some other position to upgrade? Depends on auction dynamics, I guess. I've generally tried to get one good/medium catcher and then one $1 flier, leaning towards someone who has some upside. Last year that was John Ryan Murphy, who, as it turned out, had no upside.

[Ken]

Also, I have found historically in my AL only 2-C league, people all feel this way and as a result the mid-range catchers that have a predicted value of $7-12 end up going for $15 or more because nobody wants to get stuck with the dregs. So it gets a little more complicated - how much are you willing to "overpay" for a mid-range catcher (to get more than the 8 HR/40 RBI/40 R) vs. settling for the scrap heap for $1? Is the overpay for the catcher upgrade worth it, or are you better off overpaying at some other position to upgrade? Depends on auction dynamics, I guess. I've generally tried to get one good/medium catcher and then one $1 flier, leaning towards someone who has some upside. Last year that was John Ryan Murphy, who, as it turned out, had no upside.

Tricky concept but as long as you have correctly valued enough players to fill all the teams in the league, your $ prices should already account for their differences. So in that scenario you would never want to over pay even $1. This is the Larry Schechter approach. The real question comes down to whether you trust your own valuations coming into the auction. If you do, you should rarely need to go above them (i.e. if you thought the guy was worth more than your valuation, then why did you value him at that price and not more?)

[SlideRule]

Tricky concept but as long as you have correctly valued enough players to fill all the teams in the league, your $ prices should already account for their differences. So in that scenario you would never want to over pay even $1. This is the Larry Schechter approach. The real question comes down to whether you trust your own valuations coming into the auction. If you do, you should rarely need to go above them (i.e. if you thought the guy was worth more than your valuation, then why did you value him at that price and not more?)

This gets more into auction dynamics and the details therein, but I've found that it's tricky to follow inflation in real-time, and stay strictly true to your pre-draft calculated values. I don't like to be too beholden to entering data into my spreadsheet, and prefer to do the number-crunching up front and then during auction simplify and go off a few printouts, maybe keeping track of just my team's projected stats in real time. So if all the "value" in an auction to compensate for overpays occurs on players in the $5-10 range, or conversely if all the inflation is evened out on studs, then sticking strictly to your values (where inflation is spread evenly, perhaps) results in you getting no "studs" and your choice of a bunch of mediocre players, with whom it's hard to spend your full budget. So yes, values should be right but it's also important to understand when and how to deviate from them to not get left behind if the auction starts going in a certain direction.

Now... back to catchers? What do people think of Bruce Maxwell as one of these cheap "won't play much" but with some upside options? Any other picks people like for when and if you get stuck making that $1 catcher decision?