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Last year he was suspended 80 games for PEDs. He came back and he wasn't very good. But he did hit a memorable home run in the first game after Jose Fernandez' death. His 2015 season is still very much on the minds of the projection systems.
One thing we should note is that even though he missed half a season, he still ran at a 60-sb pace last year despite getting on base a lot less.
2015: 653 PA, .333-4-46-88r-58sb, 3.8% BB, 13.9% K, .383 BABIP
2016: 345 PA, .268-1-14-47r-30sb, 5.2% BB, 15.9% K, .319 BABIP
Steamer: 618 PA, .279-3-42-73r-45sb
ZIPS: 606 PA, .285-2-34-82r-52sb
I don't think anyone really thinks he's getting back to 2015, but if he hits those ZIPS projections I think his owners will be pretty damn happy. The real risk for any speedster is blowing out his hammy and cutting his steals in half. But setting that aside, how good do we feel that 2016 was a fluke? It seems likely that he's going to run so you're basically just paying for batting average.
One thing we should note is that even though he missed half a season, he still ran at a 60-sb pace last year despite getting on base a lot less.
2015: 653 PA, .333-4-46-88r-58sb, 3.8% BB, 13.9% K, .383 BABIP
2016: 345 PA, .268-1-14-47r-30sb, 5.2% BB, 15.9% K, .319 BABIP
Steamer: 618 PA, .279-3-42-73r-45sb
ZIPS: 606 PA, .285-2-34-82r-52sb
I don't think anyone really thinks he's getting back to 2015, but if he hits those ZIPS projections I think his owners will be pretty damn happy. The real risk for any speedster is blowing out his hammy and cutting his steals in half. But setting that aside, how good do we feel that 2016 was a fluke? It seems likely that he's going to run so you're basically just paying for batting average.
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