Cut one prospect

[Roy Hobbs]

No contracts dynasty league

Cut one prospect.

AJ Puk
Mickey Moniak
Corey Ray

[Pauly]

I mean both offensive guys profile as better players and in my experience you always default to the offensive guys anyway. I think it is an easy choice.

[revo]

I mean both offensive guys profile as better players and in my experience you always default to the offensive guys anyway. I think it is an easy choice.

Gotta agree with Pauly.

[Roy Hobbs]

Gotta agree with Pauly.

It's very hard to cut A J Puk. I see him with enormous potential and possibly more than Moniak. Can you give an argument as to why I should cut Puk over Moniak?

[The Dane]

It's very hard to cut A J Puk. I see him with enormous potential and possibly more than Moniak. Can you give an argument as to why I should cut Puk over Moniak?

The only reason you need: Puk is a pitcher.

Sure, he's a fine prospect, and if you could keep all three, then great. But you can't. So, you play the odds and you keep the hitters. This is a no-brainer. If he was 23, on the cusp of the majors, I might choose to keep him, but he's not. He's at least two years away and two years is a lifetime in pitcher years.

[Roy Hobbs]

The only reason you need: Puk is a pitcher.

Sure, he's a fine prospect, and if you could keep all three, then great. But you can't. So, you play the odds and you keep the hitters. This is a no-brainer. If he was 23, on the cusp of the majors, I might choose to keep him, but he's not. He's at least two years away and two years is a lifetime in pitcher years.

Playing the odds is one thing, but upside has to count for something and I see Puk having more upside than Moniak. I believe Moniak has a higher floor, but less of a ceiling. Does anyone else feel this way about Moniak? Perhaps I'm on drugs.

[Gregg]

Playing the odds is one thing, but upside has to count for something and I see Puk having more upside than Moniak. I believe Moniak has a higher floor, but less of a ceiling. Does anyone else feel this way about Moniak? Perhaps I'm on drugs.

Or have made up your mind.

We use this forum to get ideas to help us, but we are still going to do what is fun and right by our own desires. It seems you cannot or do not want to be talked out of Puk. Mission accomplished.

I sat on Urias for years only to trade him this year for a year's worth of Kershaw. The Giolito owner that refused to trade him for all sorts of good offers gets nothing for him as he is traded out of the league. Have fun and keep who you like.

As for me I would be happy to have any 2 of those guys.

[The Dane]

Playing the odds is one thing, but upside has to count for something and I see Puk having more upside than Moniak. I believe Moniak has a higher floor, but less of a ceiling. Does anyone else feel this way about Moniak? Perhaps I'm on drugs.

You're on drugs.

Maybe Puk has a higher upside. I don't care about that. I'd say that Puk, being where he is in his development, probably has about a 10% chance of being worth anything to a fantasy roster by 2021. (That's factoring in two years of development, one year of obligatory surgery and recovery, and a fourth year to get his stuff back.) Moniak, has probably a 20% chance of the same, but then, he's predominantly a speedster, so he probably has a much better chance to reach his lower ceiling.

By the time Puk is worth anything, there will be two or three more drafts with dozens of similarly enticing arms.

When you're gambling, would you rather have a 10% chance of winning $100, or a 20% of winning $50? I'll take the higher odds any day.

[Roy Hobbs]

You're on drugs.

Maybe Puk has a higher upside. I don't care about that. I'd say that Puk, being where he is in his development, probably has about a 10% chance of being worth anything to a fantasy roster by 2021. (That's factoring in two years of development, one year of obligatory surgery and recovery, and a fourth year to get his stuff back.) Moniak, has probably a 20% chance of the same, but then, he's predominantly a speedster, so he probably has a much better chance to reach his lower ceiling.

By the time Puk is worth anything, there will be two or three more drafts with dozens of similarly enticing arms.

When you're gambling, would you rather have a 10% chance of winning $100, or a 20% of winning $50? I'll take the higher odds any day.

You make a reasonable argument. One thing that makes me consider Moniak is his speed. My team could use some.

[Sour Masher]

I agree that Puk has more upside than Moniak, and I also agree that Puk carries a lot more risk, not just because he is a pitcher, but because he has a high risk profile even as a pitcher. It comes down to what you want and what will piss you off more in terms of outcomes. Personally, I can live with giving up a good player, and I can live with being dead wrong on a high risk bust. What haunts me is when I've traded guys like Trout and Betts for waay less than they end up being worth, or flalt out drop Joey Votto, because, ironically, early reports suggest that, like Moniak, he was a high floor but low ceiling player--oops. So, I can see keeping Puk who has true TOR upside. Moniak is much more likely to become a contributor for you, but not as such a high level that passing on him will haunt your dreams. Although, prognosticators have been wrong before about that. Sometimes the high floor guys turn out to be stars too.

As The Dane says, there is a minuscule chance that Puk actually amounts to anything great, and even if he does, it will takes several years. But if you are the type to be tortured by the memory of cutting an ace, you may want to hold Puk, even as you recognize that is not the right move statistically, because he does hae more upside. I tend to make the "right" move, but in doing so, I don't keep in mind the dozens of high upside prospects I've traded away for title runs that never amounted to anything. I remember the very few that blossomed into super stars. So, I'm the sort that might consider keeping Puk, even though I know it is most likely going to be the wrong choice.

[The Dane]

I agree that Puk has more upside than Moniak, and I also agree that Puk carries a lot more risk, not just because he is a pitcher, but because he has a high risk profile even as a pitcher. It comes down to what you want and what will piss you off more in terms of outcomes. Personally, I can live with giving up a good player, and I can live with being dead wrong on a high risk bust. What haunts me is when I've traded guys like Trout and Betts for waay less than they end up being worth, or flalt out drop Joey Votto, because, ironically, early reports suggest that, like Moniak, he was a high floor but low ceiling player--oops. So, I can see keeping Puk who has true TOR upside. Moniak is much more likely to become a contributor for you, but not as such a high level that passing on him will haunt your dreams. Although, prognosticators have been wrong before about that. Sometimes the high floor guys turn out to be stars too.

As The Dane says, there is a minuscule chance that Puk actually amounts to anything great, and even if he does, it will takes several years. But if you are the type to be tortured by the memory of cutting an ace, you may want to hold Puk, even as you recognize that is not the right move statistically, because he does hae more upside. I tend to make the "right" move, but in doing so, I don't keep in mind the dozens of high upside prospects I've traded away for title runs that never amounted to anything. I remember the very few that blossomed into super stars. So, I'm the sort that might consider keeping Puk, even though I know it is most likely going to be the wrong choice.

Nicely said.

I'm clearly the type that rarely looks back in regret at any move I make, be it a keeper or an extension or a trade. In my mind, if I hung onto Puk and his inevitable Tommy John recovery went all Homer Bailey, I probably wouldn't even think about all the other, more likely-to-contribute, players I passed on to keep him. I don't dwell on things like that. However, Sour Masher is right. If you ARE that type of owner, you should keep the guy with the upside.

[Big Tymer]

Moniak over Puk and its not close to me either

[Roy Hobbs]

I think I've made up my mind and I have to make a cut by 3/31. I believe I will cut Corey Ray instead of Puk. I have lots of top end position players and I'm somewhat weaker at pitching. Ray didn't look all that great ar high A, even though it's too early to judge on those statistics and his knee troubles me.

[Sour Masher]

I think I've made up my mind and I have to make a cut by 3/31. I believe I will cut Corey Ray instead of Puk. I have lots of top end position players and I'm somewhat weaker at pitching. Ray didn't look all that great ar high A, even though it's too early to judge on those statistics and his knee troubles me.

I'd keep Ray over Puk and Moniak. He is closer to contributing than Moniak, and as The Dane pointed out, that matters, because of all the other prospects you won't be able to keep over the next few years as you wait on Moniak.

[Roy Hobbs]

I'm not sold on Ray