2K17 Felix Hernandez

[Gregg]

No question he was disappointing last year. I am guessing he will be back in every auction in America. In our AL only league 5x5 with $260 budget he used up $33 of it. He is going back in no doubt.

I have to admit I am not a believer that he comes back this year. I certainly could be wrong. He is only 31.

So what do you guys project for him?

How much are you willing to pay to gamble on upside. I am going to guess he will go for about $16 in our upcoming auction. I think I would only go to $12, but I am not sure I would be happy with that purchase.

What sayeth the Pen?

[Sour Masher]

His ADP is down more than I would have thought. I agree that he has so many miles on his arm, that he may have officially turned the corner to a different part of his career, when he will be something less than an ace. But I also think he is smart enough to learn how to be effective with worse stuff, and I do expect a decent bounce back. In fact, I think that process has been going on the last few years. Reports of his demise have been coming for years, as his FB velocity kept falling, and he still managed to be highly effective. He may never recapture his prime years, but I don't see any reason not to expect a bounce back and a return to strong production. To quantify it, I expect him to match or slightly exceed his 2007 and 2008 stat lines, so what would you pay for those? They were in the 3.5-4.0 era range, with close to 200 innings, 175ks, and a 1.3ish whip.

[Ken]

The velocity charts on Felix are scary. If there was an injury concern as a root cause you would expect to see a significant decrease followed by (hopefully) improvement. With Felix unfortunately you see a steady steady decline year after year after year.

In 2007 he was sitting 97-99, and through 2014 he sitting around 93. But last year he could not even reach 92 consistently. It gets worse each year of his career.

I would expect his results to continue falling off.

[Roy Hobbs]

The velocity charts on Felix are scary. If there was an injury concern as a root cause you would expect to see a significant decrease followed by (hopefully) improvement. With Felix unfortunately you see a steady steady decline year after year after year.

In 2007 he was sitting 97-99, and through 2014 he sitting around 93. But last year he could not even reach 92 consistently. It gets worse each year of his career.

I would expect his results to continue falling off.

He had a very good last outing.

[chancellor]

The velocity charts on Felix are scary. If there was an injury concern as a root cause you would expect to see a significant decrease followed by (hopefully) improvement. With Felix unfortunately you see a steady steady decline year after year after year.

In 2007 he was sitting 97-99, and through 2014 he sitting around 93. But last year he could not even reach 92 consistently. It gets worse each year of his career.

I would expect his results to continue falling off.

This. Unless he comes out of ST hitting 93-94 again, I'm avoiding. This cliff could be very bad.

[revo]

This. Unless he comes out of ST hitting 93-94 again, I'm avoiding. This cliff could be very bad.

I agree. At this point you're only buying the name. This isn't your momma's Felix Hernandez.

[Gregg]

Ok gentlemen, we are in agreement. So at what auction price would you take a chance on him?

[Hornsby]

Ok gentlemen, we are in agreement. So at what auction price would you take a chance on him?

I don't think that I'd go past single digits for him...maybe 10 tops?

[Sour Masher]

This. Unless he comes out of ST hitting 93-94 again, I'm avoiding. This cliff could be very bad.

Was he at 93-94 during his great 2014? I' not sure, but I recall hearing about his tanked velocity in 2015, when he still put up numbers one would be happy to pay $20 for. I feel like people have lamented Felix's falling velocity for years. I'm not saying it doesn't matter when it gets low enough, as evident by the trainwreck that is now Jered Weaver. But Felix isn't there yet. More important than his FB velocity is, how does his change up look? It looks pretty solid so far this spring.

I get lowering expectations and price, but I think he is being discounted too much by some folks. $10 for King Felix? Yes please. I recall a lot of doom and gloom on Verlander too, and reports of his demise were also premature.

[Hornsby]

Was he at 93-94 during his great 2014? I' not sure, but I recall hearing about his tanked velocity in 2015, when he still put up numbers one would be happy to pay $20 for. I feel like people have lamented Felix's falling velocity for years. I'm not saying it doesn't matter when it gets low enough, as evident by the trainwreck that is now Jered Weaver. But Felix isn't there yet. More important than his FB velocity is, how does his change up look? It looks pretty solid so far this spring.

I get lowering expectations and price, but I think he is being discounted too much by some folks. $10 for King Felix? Yes please. I recall a lot of doom and gloom on Verlander too, and reports of his demise were also premature.

The problem with the Changeup is the difference in speed from his Fastball. As his velocity decreases, that gap shrinks, unless he can somehow slow his change as well...

And his WHIP jumped from under 1.00 two years ago, to over 1.30...what was that all about? K's fell off the table as well...he just scares the hell out of me.

[Ken]

Was he at 93-94 during his great 2014?

Yes sir, as matter of fact yes he was sitting 93-94 all year.

I'm not sure, but I recall hearing about his tanked velocity in 2015, when he still put up numbers one would be happy to pay $20 for.

Velocity didn't tank, it went down from 93/94 referenced above to 92/93. As far as results, he went from 2.14 ERA/0.92 WHIP/248 Ks in 2014 to 3.53 ERA/1.18 WHIP/191Ks. What that difference was worth would vary from league to league, but then again, you wouldn't have been able to buy him in the 2015 auction for $20 coming off that 2014 season.

I feel like people have lamented Felix's falling velocity for years. I'm not saying it doesn't matter when it gets low enough, as evident by the trainwreck that is now Jered Weaver. But Felix isn't there yet. More important than his FB velocity is, how does his change up look? It looks pretty solid so far this spring.

The concern I have is not a single dip but rather a repeated year over year decline.

I get lowering expectations and price, but I think he is being discounted too much by some folks. $10 for King Felix? Yes please. I recall a lot of doom and gloom on Verlander too, and reports of his demise were also premature.

Verlander's fastball was up to 94/95 last year. He had not hit that velocity previously since 2013 (not coincidentally the last time he was an All Star). I fear the Verlander comp only helps you if Felix can improve his velocity.

[cavebird]

It all depends. Most pitchers who pitch hard lose velocity as they age. They also adjust to this. And then there is the point where the velocity is too low for them to be effective. For example, Felix does not have to be back to the 97 he threw as a kid to be successful. But last year, he clearly dropped to the point he could not be successful. I have heard it discussed ad nauseum---he was not exactly an offseason hard worker in the past. FWIW, it has been said that he worked out a lot this offseason and did not take it off. I think he can be successful at 92-93. But can he get there? He was a tick below that last night--the first game this spring I have seen him where there was a gun measuring it. Still, that was more than last year and it is still March (velocities tend to increase throughout spring---but different with meaningful games in WBC). It's the million dollar question for him. At a low price, he is high risk, high reward. If he goes for too much, the reward dies and the risk becomes too much.