Two sets of extension questions

[mjl]

Both leagues do the normal +$5/season thing.

RJEL (18 team mixed 5x5 using OBP, 1 C, 2 UT):

To give you an idea of inflation (especially wrt Cespedes), the top hitter prices from last year's auction: Encarnacion $51, Bautista $56, Frazier $41, Cutch $56, JUpton $50, Pence $34, Miggy $48, Carlos Gomez $45, Heyward $39, Adam Jones $41, Machado $53, Adrian Gonzalez $38. So I'm pretty sure Cespedes would go in the high 40s if he was in the auction.

Already keeping:
Trout $25
Broxton $4
Arrieta $8
Gausman $5
Manaea $4
Oh $1

Extension questions:
Forsythe $1
LeMahieu $2
Cespedes $29
Kepler $4



10-team NL-only 5x5 using AVG:

Rizzo, Stanton, and Dee Gordon all went in the high 40s to 50s last year, but I can't find any other records.

Already keeping:
Mesoraco $5
Goldschmidt $20
LeMahieu $7
Crawford $6
Dickerson $6
Arrieta $15
Jansen $26
Ottavino $5

Extension questions:
Pederson $5
Roark $2

[Hornsby]

I'm not the greatest judge since I don't really like Cespedes, but he's probably worth a years extension...I wouldn't go 2 though. LeMahieu is worth a year as well...

Pederson has been a disappointment, but he's worth a year, Roark as well, IMO.

[joncarlos]

Yeah, I'd go a year for Cespedes and a year for Lemahieu. I just don't see Forsythe or Kepler - are you 100% sure they'll be starters in 2018? Sure seems that way now but why gamble?

In the NL, I would go 1 year on Joc. I wouldn't extend Roark. Don't forget he was in the bullpen 2 years ago. And he's not super young. I know Joc should easily develop into a regular $20/year player and maybe in an OBP league I go 2 years, but I'm not sure I want to be on the hook for 15 bucks a year.

[Neilage]

I avoid signing long-term contracts for players, regardless of value.
I believe in maximizing your talent to win this season by using all potential contract dollars to acquire new talent in the auction, and worrying about next year, next year.

Just my $0.02.

[chancellor]

I'd leave Forsythe, just because I'm not sure of his future with the Dodgers. I'd pay the extra $5 for the certainty of Cespedes power. In a 5x5 OBP league with your depth, I extend LeMahieu two years. Kepler's a tougher call. I'd probably let him ride.

[Gregg]

In the NL, I would go 1 year on Joc. I wouldn't extend Roark. Don't forget he was in the bullpen 2 years ago. And he's not super young. I know Joc should easily develop into a regular $20/year player and maybe in an OBP league I go 2 years, but I'm not sure I want to be on the hook for 15 bucks a year.

For reasons that JC mentions here, I would not extend Roark. I have him in a 12 NL only at 4 bucks with high inflation and I am not extending.

I would hedge my bet on Pederson and go a year but not two. While I might be tempted to go the extra year, I would take the extra $5 each of savings on Roark and Joc and put it to buying a stud.

[Gregg]

Both leagues do the normal +$5/season thing.

RJEL (18 team mixed 5x5 using OBP, 1 C, 2 UT):

To give you an idea of inflation (especially wrt Cespedes), the top hitter prices from last year's auction: Encarnacion $51, Bautista $56, Frazier $41, Cutch $56, JUpton $50, Pence $34, Miggy $48, Carlos Gomez $45, Heyward $39, Adam Jones $41, Machado $53, Adrian Gonzalez $38. So I'm pretty sure Cespedes would go in the high 40s if he was in the auction.

Already keeping:
Trout $25
Broxton $4
Arrieta $8
Gausman $5
Manaea $4
Oh $1

Extension questions:
Forsythe $1
LeMahieu $2
Cespedes $29
Kepler $4

Just looking at the value of the players it is tempting to give all but Kepler a year raise. Then I look at the inflationary prices that you posted and I think If I subtracted $15 off of those prices they approach what "normal" prices should be. You have a nice keeper list for this year. If there is medium to small numbers of top offensive talent back in the auction I would seriously consider not extending and using the money to get and extra bat. When push comes to shove, assuming small numbers, I probably still give LeMahieu a one year bump.

If talent is plentiful in the auction I would bump all three. Forsythe owners were rewarded well last year and will still be at 6 bucks.

[Ken]

I avoid signing long-term contracts for players, regardless of value.
I believe in maximizing your talent to win this season by using all potential contract dollars to acquire new talent in the auction, and worrying about next year, next year.

Just my $0.02.

This is my general rule. I make rare exceptions. For example if I have a top 50 player for < $5 I'm willing to extend a year. Or if I have a top 5 player for less than $20 I'm willing to extend 2 years.

In this case I personally would not extend any of these guys. You have great contracts to give you a shot to win this year, don't ruin that by adding $5 and making your contracts mediocre.

[mjl]

Just looking at the value of the players it is tempting to give all but Kepler a year raise. Then I look at the inflationary prices that you posted and I think If I subtracted $15 off of those prices they approach what "normal" prices should be. You have a nice keeper list for this year. If there is medium to small numbers of top offensive talent back in the auction I would seriously consider not extending and using the money to get and extra bat. When push comes to shove, assuming small numbers, I probably still give LeMahieu a one year bump.

If talent is plentiful in the auction I would bump all three. Forsythe owners were rewarded well last year and will still be at 6 bucks.

Definitely available in the auction: Altuve, Goldschmidt, Encarnacion, Dozier, Cano, Braun, Freeman, Cruz, Stanton, Myers, Seager, CDavis, Frazier, Bautista, AJones, KDavis, JUpton

Probably: Pence, Posey, Desmond, Miggy, CarGo, Machado

Also, in a late trade, I picked up Kang $4 in the NL league. Opinion on extending him?

[Gregg]

Definitely available in the auction: Altuve, Goldschmidt, Encarnacion, Dozier, Cano, Braun, Freeman, Cruz, Stanton, Myers, Seager, CDavis, Frazier, Bautista, AJones, KDavis, JUpton

Probably: Pence, Posey, Desmond, Miggy, CarGo, Machado

Also, in a late trade, I picked up Kang $4 in the NL league. Opinion on extending him?

Considering an 18 team league, I think I would just extend LeMahieu a year and go hard after several of these available players.

I think you have put yourself in bit of a predicament by picking up Kang. Kang at this contract would be for a team that is clearly rebuilding. He is going to be suspended so you cannot take advantage of the $4 contract when you need players to play to compete for this year. Kang needs to be given a year and is still good value at $9 for a rebuilding team.. Still you do have the money. My opinion is you either have to extend or trade if you are trying to win this year.

[scottw]

Common sense general rules I use for long term contracts is to ask: Can I get him back for that amount? Do I really want him at that cost? Do the extra few years make a difference in this case? If I am set up to make a run this year, is it worth taking a poor contract into the future? If I am building for the future, is it worth tying up all that money now? What job security is there? If any of the answers are a problem, I am probably not going to extend.

[Hammer]

RJEL

Forsythe $1 extend 1 year
LeMahieu $2 extend 2 years
Kepler maybe 1 year if at all

I am not extending Cespedes because while he has some profit, I am hesitant to toss a lot of extension money around.



10-team NL-only 5x5 using AVG:

I am not extending Joc, who hurts your average, doesnt run much and still seems to be platooning. I also have no interest in extending Roark.

[Hammer]

I am curious on why people arent willing to extend longer on DJ. He has been fantastic, is under team control and in a great ballpark. Whats the hesitancy?

[Ken]

I am curious on why people arent willing to extend longer on DJ. He has been fantastic, is under team control and in a great ballpark. Whats the hesitancy?

Personally I only extend top 50 type players. LeMahieu clearly falls outside that range. I would want a player that contributes significantly in at least 3 categories and LeMahieu is really a two category player (AVG/R).

On the AVG side, his 2016 season was propped up by a .388 BABIP which seems unsustainable considering the lack of power and average speed.

If he were to regress to his average season from 2013-2015 instead of his 2016 numbers, would you happy with a guaranteed contract for a player who hits .280 with 5 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, and 50 RBI? At those levels he's a guy you'd take on your team, but not close to someone to build around as he does not really help you significantly enough in any category.

[Hammer]

Personally I only extend top 50 type players. LeMahieu clearly falls outside that range. I would want a player that contributes significantly in at least 3 categories and LeMahieu is really a two category player (AVG/R).

On the AVG side, his 2016 season was propped up by a .388 BABIP which seems unsustainable considering the lack of power and average speed.

If he were to regress to his average season from 2013-2015 instead of his 2016 numbers, would you happy with a guaranteed contract for a player who hits .280 with 5 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, and 50 RBI? At those levels he's a guy you'd take on your team, but not close to someone to build around as he does not really help you significantly enough in any category.

fair points- I would be content with his 2013-15 numbers at $12 in a highly inflated 18 team league. I would be ecstatic if he puts up similar numbers to what he did in 2016.