my low-budget keeper choices for my 34th season

[Judge Jude]

Here are my guys whose price is less than HQ projections for NL-only 12-team 5x5 AND less than the price paid at LABR NL last weekend:

PLAYER.....................PRICE.....HQ.......LABR
1B Tommy Joseph........ 10........11........18
SS Aledmys Diaz...........5.........16........20
O32 Howie Kendrick.......9.........10........10
OF Randal Grichuk.........9.........12........19
OF Adam Duvall..........5/10........8........15
(can go 5-O with Duvall, or 10-L2 with option for 15-L1 in 2018)

any question on those 5?

These are guys who passed only one of the auditions:

PLAYER.....................PRICE.....HQ.......LABR
OF Andre Ethier............4..........8..........3
SP Jeremy Hellickson.....4..........0..........5

Didn't pass either test:
PLAYER.....................PRICE.....HQ.......LABR
2B Ryan Schimpf...........10........ 3.........7
OF Tyler Goeddel...........1.........-1......---
SP Matt Wisler...............2........-7.........0
SP Rubby de la Rosa.......1........-4........---

My RPs are really just a matter of "did he get the closer job?" also lists HQ projected SV

PLAYER.....................PRICE.....HQ.......LABR
RP Hector Neris...........10..........9..........4 (12 SV)
RP Adam Ottavino.......10..........6..........7 (12 SV)
RP Michael Lorenzen....10..........7..........3 (4 SV)
RP Daniel Hudson........10..........5..........1 (11 SV)
RP Mauricio Cabrera....10..........2..........1 (4 SV)

I can keep up to 11, but clearly won't get there.

Thoughts?

[kawaise]

How much faith do you have in Kendrick this year? He was bounced all around last year in LA and was seen as a disappointment to some. Is Father Time starting to catch up to HK?

The rest of your five under projected salaries look solid.

Duvall? L2 (though I'd be tempted to keep him at $5 and use the extra $5 at the auction table).

Ethier .... you could do worse in an NL-only setting at his $4.

Your RPs all have intrigue, however, don't you think all will go for less than $10 (Neris and Ottovino would get a bump if named closer before Opening Day)?

[Judge Jude]

"Your RPs all have intrigue, however, don't you think all will go for less than $10 (Neris and Ottovino would get a bump if named closer before Opening Day)? "

yes, any that aren't named as closers may all go less than 10. plus some I'd rather have the extra year on, so 11-S2 arguably better than 10-S1. I won't rule out sending them all back.

[Judge Jude]

"How much faith do you have in Kendrick this year? He was bounced all around last year in LA and was seen as a disappointment to some. Is Father Time starting to catch up to HK?"

fair question since he turns 33 in July.
more appealing in my league because:

- we use AVG not OBP, and Kendrick is a .289 career hitter. NL hit .254 last year. while Kendrick only hit .255, he had a .272 xBA and was hobbled in the first half of the season (he also finished the year 0 for 18).

- we have 15 G position qualification not 20, which adds 3B to 2B and OF as options. another little plus.

- this league has high inflation because farmhands are 5-S2 until the year after they lose rookie status, then 5-S1 then - for the studs - 10-L2 and 15-L1. and owners can keep up to eight farmhands at a time. so getting ANYBODY at book value is attractive.

- I think Phillies will play him every day and I also have possible midseason replacement Nick Williams in my farm.

all that said, he IS boring.

and I'd pass if it was NL-only 4x4 with OBP instead of AVG, no 3B eligibility, and average inflation

[scottw]

I agree that HK will likely play LF every day, possibly spelling Hernandez once in a while at 2B, too. But, if he is doing well come July, there is every chance that he will be dealt so that they get prospects and guys like Quinn [1st] and Williams [2nd] can come up. Same with Saunders. Both are on 1 year contracts. And, they will have to do something with Cozens soon, too--serious power and a terrific runner, especially for a big dude.

[Sharky]

Would keep your first five plus Etbier. Probably wouldn't extend Duvall unless that dramatically alters his trade value. And even then I probably wouldn't. Just make your usual good auction buys with the remaining cash.... then post your anatomy of an auction again for us all to enjoy!!

Good luck!

[joncarlos]

I'd keep your top 5, add Ethier, Hellickson and Ottavino. I think Ethier and Hellickson will earn their keep and I wouldn't want to go in with no saves. Otto is the closer and Holland is still working his way back into form.

[Judge Jude]

I'd keep your top 5, add Ethier, Hellickson and Ottavino. I think Ethier and Hellickson will earn their keep and I wouldn't want to go in with no saves. Otto is the closer and Holland is still working his way back into form.

have to submit picks on Wednesday. I cut Ethier because he's been hobbled all spring training and he won't go for more than that now. and of course MauCabrera is well out of the Braves mix so no. any official word on Rockies closer yet?

[senorsheep]

I wouldn't bet on Ottavino being the closer in Colorado. I've always believed the job is Holland's as soon as he is physically able to claim it. And thus far is ST, he has looked physically able to claim it. His contract is laden with saves-based incentives, and I don't think he would have signed it unless he had received assurances that he would get the opportunity. Ottavino is a good hedge against Holland's health, but probably not at $10.

[Judge Jude]

thanks for the local knowledge!

yeah, I think I just go for the 5 hitters and Hellickson.
had 5 RP lottery tickets, and didn't win a nickel.

[chancellor]

Top 5, plus Hellickson. Is there something I'm missing here with Hellickson? He had better than a 3:1 K:BB ratio, struck out around 7/9 IP, has an assured job in the NL East, and he's only 4 bucks.

I'd not extend Duvall.

[Judge Jude]

ok, I traded farmhand Ozzie Albies (5-S2 until year after his rookie year; 5-S1 in 2018 if 131 MLB AB this year) for Kenta Maeda 19-S1. HQ rates Maeda at 20 in these parameters, and there aren't even five SPs available in the auction who are better.

now looks like
SP Kenta Maeda 19-S1
SP Jeremy Hellickson 4-S1

1B Tommy Joseph 10-S1
SS Aledmys Diaz 5-S1
032 Howie Kendrick 9-S1 (15 G eligibility for us)
OF Adam Duvall 5-S1
OF Randal Grichuk 9-O

7 for 61
lotta holes but a lotta money left

re Maeda: these are the HQ values for the 5 best SP in the auction: Bumgarner 37, Hendricks 28, Strasburg 19, GCole 17, Greinke 15. I ain't getting any of them that cheap, alas.

[Sharky]

I'm an Albies fan but Maeda is solid. Joseph, Diaz, Duvall are an excellent core. No speed but I'm sure you can get that somewhere. Good luck!

When is your auction? Looking forward to your annual post. Our NL auction is late this year, so might be very useful!

[Judge Jude]

Sharky always has my back!


and we are Opening Day so yes to Anatomy........

[chancellor]

That's a nice little group you have coming in, and almost $200 to work with. Speed you need, and that'll likely cost you, but you also need BA, and you might be able to find a piece or two who can help you there at a decent value. I'm very intrigued how you'll manage pitching during the auction, and am looking forward to your Anatomy of an Auction piece a lot!

Good luck!