2K17: Vincent Velasquez

[Pauly]

Can he stay healthy enough to be a 200K pitcher this year? Can he get deeper into starts? Will the Phillies get him anywhere near 15 wins?

Discuss...

[The Dane]

Don't count on health. I think it's reasonable to bank on 100ks and 7 wins. Any more than that is gravy.

For me, there is too much hope in him right now to make him a good target. He's hyped as a possible breakout guy and so he's likely to get bid up to value or higher. So I'm likely out. I'll wait for him to disappoint for a couple of years and then just during his post-hype phase.

If you can get him dirt-cheap, do so. I do like him, but he's risky and a lot of other people like him too. That's not the kind of player you find on the rosters of winning teams all that often.

[kldub4life]

I don't see it but it could be close.

If he gets to 175 IP he could break 200. But for him to get to that # he needs to start just about every turn in the 5 man (30+ starts) I'll definitely go under.

I do see him having a very good season. But I'm expecting high side 160 IP which could bring 180+ Ks.

[cavebird]

I don't see it. The Phillies are highly unlikely to contend, and since the most innings he has ever thrown is the 131 from last year, even if he breaks out, they'll probably just shut him down at about 160-170 innings anyway.

[kawaise]

The Phils are getting closer .... nice group of youngsters coming up: Crawford, Alfaro, Cozens - possibly Quinn and Williams - as bats; the pitchers are little further off, though (Medina, Kilome, and Sanchez). PECOTA has them only improving by three wins over last years, however.

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/2/...-in-last-place

As others have stated, barring injury, Velasquez should see between 160-180 IP this year. Remember, they held him back some last year because of his lack of pitching experience. It's always hard to project wins ... I'd be happy with somewhere in the range of 8-12 wins.

By the way, BBHQ has him projected for 167 IP.

[cavebird]

They are getting closer, but so are the Braves; the Marlins are not horrible, and the Muts and Nats are still loaded. Not a particularly great division because there is not huge topside, but there aren't the total crap teams that the Braves and Phillies were at the start of last season anymore. Should be an interesting season, if only to see if Dickey actually loses more than two pounds of sweat per game in July and August when pitching at home.