2K17: Jean Segura

[revo]

Jean Segura is, to me, a drafter's conundrum in 2017. What Segura will show up?

He's got an ADP of 54, but his 2016 stats made him a Top 15 fantasy hitter. So obviously fantasy players expect a large regression from 2016. Baking that in, how much of a regression should we be looking at?

Segura has four full seasons at the MLB level, and two were top shelf and two were awful. He'll always contribute SBs, but that won't lessen the blow of using the 54th overall pick on a .250ish BA with 60 Runs.

Steamer has him regressing to a .273/76/12/61/24 campaign, which would be a huge tumble from last year and much closer to his awful years than his great years. The Fans are a little more generous with a .283 BA and 88 Runs, but that still doesn't come close to his 2016 bonanza.

BBHQ's projections place him squarely in the Javier Baez/Devon Travis/Troy Tulowitzki neighborhood of middle infielders, so by all pundit accounts, the expectation is a major regression.

The ADP of 54 appears to be a tug of war between the hopers and the reality checkers.

Entering his age 27 season, I think he's closer to 2016 than 2015. I'll go:

.284
88 Runs
15 HRs
55 RBIs
28 SBs

That puts him in the Gordon/Kinsler/LeMahieu class, which is where I think he belongs.

[chancellor]

Another really tough one. Segura has always played in very favorable hitting parks in Milwaukee and Arizona, so the move to a pitcher friendly park has me worried, especially on the power. OTOH, his two bad years were while dealing with about the worst tragedy a parent can deal with; the loss of a child, so I suspect the two good years more accurately reflect his talent level. And Seattle didn't go get Dyson and Segura to have them stand around on the bases. So, I'm gonna go with:

.275
90 runs
12 HR
55 RBI
35 SBs

[joncarlos]

I think Arizona might be a better hitters park than we give it credit for. But given the mishmash in the outfield and basically every other position filled by a slugger, he's got to be a lock to hit at the top of the order. I think the runs and steals will be there but the AVG and power a bit disappointing compared to last year.