2K17: Jurickson Profar

[revo]

Once the #1 prospect in all of baseball, Profar seems to be a forgotten man in fantasy circles heading into 2017. The Rangers announced he's going to primarily play LF, splitting time with Ryan Rua who will likely play vs. LHPs.

Profar started strong in 2016 but tailed off badly:

1st Half - .323/.363/.465
2nd Half - .166/.288/.516

Still, he was a power/speed mix in the minors, and I'm not ready to give up on that. He hasn't displayed his speed asset at all in the majors, but I think that changes in 2017. His ADP is 380, so he can be had for an end-game price and be a potential big breakout in 2017. I can foresee a .270/15/60/18 campaign. I'm buying.

[DMT]

Once the #1 prospect in all of baseball, Profar seems to be a forgotten man in fantasy circles heading into 2017. The Rangers announced he's going to primarily play LF, splitting time with Ryan Rua who will likely play vs. LHPs.

Profar started strong in 2016 but tailed off badly:

1st Half - .323/.363/.465
2nd Half - .166/.288/.516

Still, he was a power/speed mix in the minors, and I'm not ready to give up on that. He hasn't displayed his speed asset at all in the majors, but I think that changes in 2017. His ADP is 380, so he can be had for an end-game price and be a potential big breakout in 2017. I can foresee a .270/15/60/18 campaign. I'm buying.

Agreed.

[Ken]

Once the #1 prospect in all of baseball, Profar seems to be a forgotten man in fantasy circles heading into 2017. The Rangers announced he's going to primarily play LF, splitting time with Ryan Rua who will likely play vs. LHPs.

Profar started strong in 2016 but tailed off badly:

1st Half - .323/.363/.465
2nd Half - .166/.288/.516

Still, he was a power/speed mix in the minors, and I'm not ready to give up on that. He hasn't displayed his speed asset at all in the majors, but I think that changes in 2017. His ADP is 380, so he can be had for an end-game price and be a potential big breakout in 2017. I can foresee a .270/15/60/18 campaign. I'm buying.

Profar was such a strange prospect, and even stranger with all the injuries.

His prospect status was heavily contingent on his position, his high floor, and his age relative to competition at every level. He projected to be average to slightly above average across the board without any > 55 tools.

Regarding his "speed", I don't think he's a high SB guy even at peak. I think we are talking about 10 SB max.

Your 1st Half/2nd Half numbers are telling, but even further it wasn't really even a good first "half". He did not come up until May 27th and when he came up he was on fire. He hit .397/.407/.603 with 2 HR in his first 14 games. And then in the remaining 76 games he hit .196/.301/.266 with 3 HR.

In LF, I don't think there's much upside there. And he'll likely be battling Gallo/Deshields for playing time in 2017.

Low upside, deep position, history of health issues... outside of reserve drafts in very deep leagues, I'm avoiding.

[burkkake]

I think the absolute best you should give him is 400 ab with .250/10/50/5. With 575 AB logged hes batted .235. How is he getting to .270? It's not impossible but its also not probable. His shoulder has been his issue. in 272 AB last year he hit 5 HR. He would have to triple his HR in double the AB if you give him 500 AB. Hes not hitting 15. I would pray to God that Texas and Jurickson both see the folly of him diving in to 2nd considering his shoulder history so I can't see him getting more than 5 accidental bags.

He still is worth a late game pick but I don't think he's your potential sleeper candidate.

[Ken]

Also, your 2nd half numbers have a typo.

His SLG% was just .228. Looks like you have his OPS listed for the 2nd half vs his SLG for the 1st half.

Sheesh that was a rough stretch of games for Profar!

[revo]

Also, your 2nd half numbers have a typo.

His SLG% was just .228. Looks like you have his OPS listed for the 2nd half vs his SLG for the 1st half.

Sheesh that was a rough stretch of games for Profar!

Oof, you're right. Even more pathetic!

[revo]

I think the absolute best you should give him is 400 ab with .250/10/50/5. With 575 AB logged hes batted .235. How is he getting to .270? It's not impossible but its also not probable. His shoulder has been his issue. in 272 AB last year he hit 5 HR. He would have to triple his HR in double the AB if you give him 500 AB. Hes not hitting 15. I would pray to God that Texas and Jurickson both see the folly of him diving in to 2nd considering his shoulder history so I can't see him getting more than 5 accidental bags.

He still is worth a late game pick but I don't think he's your potential sleeper candidate.

I'm basically tossing out his MLB career to date. He was a .277 hitter in the minors with 15-20 SB speed, before the yo-yo'ing and injuries hit.

I think if he can start strong and prove to the Rangers he's his old self, we could see him nudge away the competition and earn more PT. Is that possible? Maybe, but that's why his ADP is 380. It's a low price to pay for a guy who was so highly regarded before.

[Ken]

I'm basically tossing out his MLB career to date. He was a .277 hitter in the minors with 15-20 SB speed, before the yo-yo'ing and injuries hit.

I think if he can start strong and prove to the Rangers he's his old self, we could see him nudge away the competition and earn more PT. Is that possible? Maybe, but that's why his ADP is 380. It's a low price to pay for a guy who was so highly regarded before.

I know I stated my point above but I want to hit on 2 points one more time and then I've done my job to agree to disagree

1) In effectively 3 seasons worth of minor league ball, Profar stole 57 bases. 23 of those were as an 18 year old in A ball. He was also caught stealing 20 times in the minors and he has more CS than SB in the majors. Profar will never be an above average base stealer, he was always going to be a guy who could get you a few but never a burner or really even close. On this speed side, consider him a poor man's Joc Pederson, who was stealing 25-30 in the minors, but stopped running at the big league level because he's not efficient and major league managers don't like to give away free outs.

2) Even without the yo-yo-ing and injuries, the "prospect" status on Profar was always higher in the real world than it would have been in fantasy. He provided a good infield glove and arm (before the should injury killed it), and he was a lock to be able to hit at an MLB average level. But he never had a superstar upside. I'd rather take a guy with a higher upside - in the 380+ range, I'd love taking a shot on Alex Dickerson or Wilmer Flores or Cody Bellinger or Bradley Zimmer if it is a choice between those and Profar.

I also forgot to mention above that he is likely platooning with Ryan Rua even if he's given the LF job.

Sorry to be a downer, and maybe I'm jaded by watching this guy over the years. I'd love it if he came through but I'm very very bearish on Profar as a fantasy asset.

[cavebird]

He's a great high risk/high reward guy. The shoulder injury could mean you can throw out last year's numbers, he's finally healed this year, and he could break out with a line like mentioned in the first post. The shoulder injury could also mean that the power's gone forever and he's just a decent utility guy who will never hit enough to hold down a full time job. Good luck on the coin flip!

[Sour Masher]

2) Even without the yo-yo-ing and injuries, the "prospect" status on Profar was always higher in the real world than it would have been in fantasy. He provided a good infield glove and arm (before the should injury killed it), and he was a lock to be able to hit at an MLB average level. But he never had a superstar upside.

I think this is a spot on assessment of Profar, as is everything else you've said about him, to rightly temper expectations for him. While all of this true about him, the biggest concerns are the OF position and the potential for limited ABs.

But if someone wants to be hopeful, I'll point out that I believe Profar's scouting reports and grades were pretty close to Lindor's (I think some actually exceeded Lindor's), who was widely seen as a high floor defensive wiz with limited offensive upside. It is safe to say he has exceed those expectations, and Profar may too. Although, that potential would be a lot more enticing if he were being given a chance to be an every day MIFer again.

[chancellor]

I'm avoiding. If I'm going to take a swing at a deep dollar days player off the Texas bench, it'll be Rua.

[onejayhawk]

The other thing about shoulder injuries is power. In his case not HR, just hitting the ball sharply. The ball used to jump off the bat. I have not seen any mph studies on his batted balls, but they don't look good.

All that said, he's young and this sort of thing may be slow coming around. RosterResources has him starting in LF for Texas. I wouldn't give much for him, but I wouldn't leave him on waivers in a deep league.

J

[cavebird]

The other thing about shoulder injuries is power. In his case not HR, just hitting the ball sharply. The ball used to jump off the bat. I have not seen any mph studies on his batted balls, but they don't look good.

All that said, he's young and this sort of thing may be slow coming around. RosterResources has him starting in LF for Texas. I wouldn't give much for him, but I wouldn't leave him on waivers in a deep league.

J

That's the issue. Sometimes shoulder injuries are just slow to heal and they come back. Sometimes, it never returns.