New Keeper League, #3 pick

[dslaw]

Can I get some help on who to pick? Keeper forever league and it is draft based so no $ involved. Points league which makes it harder to pin down what is best (at least for me to do so) but looks like standard 5x5 but replace average with OBP and add slugging % into the mix with a penalty for Ks.

I think Trout & Bryant are 1 & 2. I feel my options are Betts or Harper for OF; Altuve, Machado, Arenado for IF. Lots of young SS so I was ignoring Bogaerts, Correa and those guys hoping I can get one later.
Harper is 24 this year with one monster year and 3 pretty good years. OBP has been .350 to .370 except his one huge year when it was .460. Is he a .270 hitter with 25 HR power or is that monster year what we will see?
Betts is 24 with a big spike in power last year. Is that sustainable? So/BB walk ratio is good with OBP around .350 all 3 years.
Arenado is 26 but scares me if he leaves Colorado which he can do in 3 years.
Altuve is 27 with power spike last year and declining SB totals. probably my #1 target for 2B but as I am typing I am talking myself of him at #3 which means I won't get him.
Machado is 24 with power over the last 2 years. OBP around .350 each of the last 2 years as well. SB are probably closer to his 2016 total of 0 than the 2015 total of 20 but still a good 3b after Bryant goes.

Who should I take? Or is there another option(s) I am not thinking of?

[Hornsby]

Can I get some help on who to pick? Keeper forever league and it is draft based so no $ involved. Points league which makes it harder to pin down what is best (at least for me to do so) but looks like standard 5x5 but replace average with OBP and add slugging % into the mix with a penalty for Ks.

I think Trout & Bryant are 1 & 2. I feel my options are Betts or Harper for OF; Altuve, Machado, Arenado for IF. Lots of young SS so I was ignoring Bogaerts, Correa and those guys hoping I can get one later.
Harper is 24 this year with one monster year and 3 pretty good years. OBP has been .350 to .370 except his one huge year when it was .460. Is he a .270 hitter with 25 HR power or is that monster year what we will see?
Betts is 24 with a big spike in power last year. Is that sustainable? So/BB walk ratio is good with OBP around .350 all 3 years.
Arenado is 26 but scares me if he leaves Colorado which he can do in 3 years.
Altuve is 27 with power spike last year and declining SB totals. probably my #1 target for 2B but as I am typing I am talking myself of him at #3 which means I won't get him.
Machado is 24 with power over the last 2 years. OBP around .350 each of the last 2 years as well. SB are probably closer to his 2016 total of 0 than the 2015 total of 20 but still a good 3b after Bryant goes.

Who should I take? Or is there another option(s) I am not thinking of?

Points leagues tend to favor pitching, so I'd certainly consider Kershaw with that pick. He's likely to be dominant for another 5+ years or so, the back injury doesn't bother me in the least.

If you're going to go hitter, I'd go Harper...just too solid as he is, and the upside is MVP.

[mjl]

Not sure, but one suggestion I'd make is that in a completely new league, there's no way that I discount Arenado because he might be somewhere else in 2020 unless you have a very good reason to believe that the league will still exist four seasons from now and you'll still be in it. I'd probably go hard on older talent with the plan of winning/being competitive in the first few years.

I'd probably take Arenado or Harper. Harper's bad year last year wasn't that far off of Betts' big surge year and they're the same age.

[Sour Masher]

I'm in a points league, and agree with Horns, that pitching usually gets a bump in points leagues. Still, in a keep forever format, it is hard to pull the trigger on an arm that early, even one as good as Kershaw.

You probably won't regret picking any of the young hitting studs. I would prefer to take one of the young MIFers, because they are scarcer. In a dynasty format, I don't think any of these picks are bad: Harper, Betts, Machado, and Correa. Personally, I'd be very tempted by Correa, but would probably settled on Machado as the more established, but still very young stud hitter. The only reason I'd discount Arrenado and Altuve just a hair, is they are a little older. But looking at it that way depends on your confidence you will be in this league in 5 years.

[DMT]

Not sure, but one suggestion I'd make is that in a completely new league, there's no way that I discount Arenado because he might be somewhere else in 2020 unless you have a very good reason to believe that the league will still exist four seasons from now and you'll still be in it. I'd probably go hard on older talent with the plan of winning/being competitive in the first few years.

I'd probably take Arenado or Harper. Harper's bad year last year wasn't that far off of Betts' big surge year and they're the same age.

Good points regarding new leagues...how many last four years? I'd be in win-now mode too. But since I've never played in a points league I can't offer advice. I would never take a pitcher #3 but if the points system dramatically favors pitchers then I can see that argument. That being said, if it was my pick, I'd take either Altuve, Arenado, or Harper. Hard to say without knowing the specifics of the league.

[dslaw]

Same group of guys running a league for the last 20 years but some people got tired of roto so it was switched this year. I figure it has 10+ years to go as I am the oldest guy around. Maybe I will have to check out Kershaw.

[joncarlos]

How many teams? That dictates how bad your bottom tier SS will be if you wait, and how much chance you have of getting Lindor/Story/Xander back in round 2.

I think Harper might be a 280/400/500 guy with 30ish HRs. The walks are not going away.

I would rule out Altuve. Not enough walks, who knows if the steals stick around and they're probably devalued anyway.

I like Arenado a lot. Good K rate for a slugger. Lots of doubles. Walked a lot more last year. Would probably be my pick, but I can understand the interest in Harper.

Machado hits a lot of doubles, qualifies at SS this year and who knows, maybe moves back there at some point.

[dslaw]

10 teams, both AL and NL which you probably figured out from the guys I was looking at. Snake draft so I go #3 and then #18.

[joncarlos]

10 teams, both AL and NL which you probably figured out from the guys I was looking at. Snake draft so I go #3 and then #18.

So yeah, even with the youth focus, maybe you sneak Lindor back at 18? If not you should have a hell of a bat waiting for you there.

[DMT]

Yea, good point on Altuve. Arenado or Harper, don't think you can go wrong with either. But given the park and the injury history, I'd go with Arenado.

[mjl]

Same group of guys running a league for the last 20 years but some people got tired of roto so it was switched this year. I figure it has 10+ years to go as I am the oldest guy around. Maybe I will have to check out Kershaw.

ok, that's probably fairly stable. I'd still be taking Braun and Miggy and Cano when the others are fighting over young guys with the plan of winning in the short term. Someone has to win the first year.