keeper options

[mjl]

12-team mixed 5x5, not much inflation.

keep 6 of:

Definites:
Bryant 13
TTurner 6
Carrasco 6

Probably:
Lucroy 11
Oh 6

Maybe:
Paxton 6
Schwarber 7
Peraza 1
Donaldson 37
Blackmon 32
AMiller 7
Aaron Sanchez 6

I can try to make some 2-for-1 trades but those don't happen much. I can also sell some of them for FAAB, which I usually do.

[Gregg]

Schwarber at $7 is a definite keep for me. He is a beast.

[overkill94]

I think Schwarber is the right call. Peraza would make sense if you didn't already have Turner but even at a buck in a 12-teamer he's a little risky compared to Schwarber. Pairing two of Schwarber/Sanchez/Peraza for one more obvious keeper would be nice but I can see how that would be difficult in a shallow league.

[Hornsby]

Yeah, what those guys said...depending on your league parameters, he might even qualify at catcher partway into the season. And unless it's a 2 catcher league, I might consider replacing LuCroy with Peraza...corner the steals and save 10 bucks.

[mjl]

It is two catcher, though for whatever reason catchers often go way cheaper than I think they should. The only ones over $10 last year were Posey, McCann, Perez, and Wieters (I had Lucroy at $6 already).

[Hornsby]

It is two catcher, though for whatever reason catchers often go way cheaper than I think they should. The only ones over $10 last year were Posey, McCann, Perez, and Wieters (I had Lucroy at $6 already).

Yeah, then you have to keep Lucroy. Nice list though...

[Ken]

I like your picks. With this list I'd be tempted to go Bryant, Turner, Donaldson, Blackmon, Lucroy, Carrasco.

Just something to think about, I know sometimes in the offseason we get hung up on "value" and "saving" money going into the draft. But if you take 4 guys in Byrant, Turner, Donaldson, Blackmon who are either first round picks or borderline first round, then you have a huge headstart on your competition. The rest of your league will be trying to catch up by overpaying for whatever high end talent is left and you can sit back and look for value in the middle of the auction to fill in holes in your lineup and you don't have to worry about chasing anything.

I know that's likely not a popular opinion, the general consensus will be save your money and buy those stars back during the auction, but that leaves you hoping you dont get into a bidding war. If Donaldson and Blackmon were $40 this would be a different discussion, but at $37 and $32 you arent overpaying terribly.

Also, I have to wonder what you mean when you say there is little inflation. You yourself have Bryant, Turner, and Carrasco for a combined $25 when they should combine for ~$90. Unless you are the only team that is saving good contracts (and if that is the case it doesn't really matter who else you keep), there's going to be at least ~20-30% inflation. And at 20-30%, those big contracts like Donaldson and Blackmon suddenly don't look so big, you'll be looking at $40 to buy them back during the auction.

Anyway, there's always different perspectives, hopefully this one was interesting at minimum!

[mjl]

There are some other good values out there, but not a ton. Salaries go up $5/year starting in year 2, and most teams are not as active as I am at picking up injured guys whose salaries have reset (e.g. Carrasco).

Here are my guesses for the other keeper lists:
Kinsler $18, Lindor $7, JTurner $6, Hendricks $7, maybe Iglesias $6 or Devon Travis $8 or Josh Bell $6
BradleyJr $6, KDavis $14, Nola $9, Russell $7, Benintendi $2, no obvious sixth
Grandal $8, Correa $11, Freeman $23, Dahl $6, two of WDavis $12 or Betances $6 or Giles $6 or Herrera $6
Villar $7, ADiaz $6, Andrus $6, dunno who else, maybe Tillman $7 or Fulmer $14
CSeager $7, Desmond $15, Cueto $29, Gattis $6, maybe Urias $8, no obvious sixth
Franco $8, Santana $7, Hanley $18, Grichuk $6, Tanaka $14, Cain $15
some subset of Contreras $7, GSanchez $6, Dozier $23, Lamb $6, Piscotty $11, Darvish $14, KBroxton $6, Jankowski $6, Keuchel $11
Trumbo $13, VMart $6, Odor $11, OHerrera $10, DMurphy $16, maybe Segura $14
Sano $13, Carter $8, Story $9, Springer $18, Myers $13, Bregman $3
Bogaerts $18, JGray $6, Osuna $6, maybe Beltre $22, maybe Cano $27, maybe Lackey $12?
Tomas $6, Baez $6, ENunez $6, Mazara $8, Syndergaard $6, maybe Kipnis $20 or Castro $10

There are definitely some bargains in there but not many teams comparable to my list I don't think. Looking at last year's prices, I think inflation on the top end probably is around 25%.

[Ken]

There are definitely some bargains in there but not many teams comparable to my list I don't think. Looking at last year's prices, I think inflation on the top end probably is around 25%.

I agree, you are doing quite well compared with the rest of your competitors.

After looking at those contracts, I tend to agree with you - 10-15% inflation. I don't even see it getting to 25%.

So, in my opinion, that knocks down Donaldson as an option, you should be able to get him back for 37 or less, so keeping him would not make sense.

I'd personally still keep Blackmon if you like the player. At that price, with 15% inflation, he's under priced, and you have some cost certainty.

Personally I'd go Bryant, Turner, Carrasco, Lucroy, Blackmon, Schwarber.

The last spot for me came down to Schwarber vs Oh, and Schwarber is worth more, has more built in profit, and he's not a closer. I don't mind keeping closers in a general sense if they are your best value, but if I have two players who are close I keep the non closer due to the volatility of that position and the likelihood of being able to pick one up for cheap or later on in FAAB.

[madducks]

TTurner 6
Bryant 13
Carrasco 6

Lucroy 11
Schwarber 7
Aaron Sanchez 6

[Ken]

Bryant 13
Carrasco 6

Lucroy 11
Schwarber 7
Peraza 1
Aaron Sanchez 6

Intentionally leaving out Turner or just an oversight?

[madducks]

Intentionally leaving out Turner or just an oversight?

Oops, i read that as 3B Justin Turner instead of SS Trea Turner. Gotta keep Trea. I guess that knocks out Peraza.

[mjl]

I agree, you are doing quite well compared with the rest of your competitors.

After looking at those contracts, I tend to agree with you - 10-15% inflation. I don't even see it getting to 25%.

The last spot for me came down to Schwarber vs Oh, and Schwarber is worth more, has more built in profit, and he's not a closer. I don't mind keeping closers in a general sense if they are your best value, but if I have two players who are close I keep the non closer due to the volatility of that position and the likelihood of being able to pick one up for cheap or later on in FAAB.

Looking back at the auction prices, it seems like our league jacks up star prices by 25% or so - Trout 50, Goldschmidt 45, Harper 44, Kershaw 43, Altuve 39* - and then the next tier is closer to normal - Braun 29, JD Martinez 26, Cano 22, AJones 20, Beltre 17, etc.

I agree on keeping closers, I usually take the worst one or two in the auction for $2 or so and then rely on FAAB, which is where I got Oh last year, but he's definitely one of the better ones. Maybe I'll just try to package him to someone who gets more excited about keeping him than I am.

*39 might be a reasonable projected price for Altuve this year but last year the power/RBI spike hadn't happened yet.