RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Pre-BA Top 100" Version)

[rhd]

Here's the latest list, in advance of BA's Top 100 which will be out later today. This list reflects modifications due to BA's Team Top 10 lists and reports, Once again, I will try to include write-ups later.

Note that I included a new column, which is the rank on my list from about a year ago. You'll see that some players really zoomed up tremendously and a handful I didnt even have on at all, even a few that werent recent draftees. Shows how topsy-turvy the prospect world is.

Same spiel as usual: I generally follow BA's prospect eligibility requirements, which are <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP. Unlike BA tho, amateurs, unsigned draftees and foreign players are eligible. Also, while BA has a different IP limit for relievers (30 IP?), relievers are eligible as long as they dont have >50 IP. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), and actual closers are upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

Link to a Google spreadsheet w the list:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BVUBOTbRg_hi7da1pIpTJJB8jpCOUuJ58b6sZxIg_IQ/edit#gid=1723461156

Link to an editable Google spreadsheet w the list:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Whq6Zk1gcroG_CetVXDBoLeZ3htpxacLANEZRuW29vc/edit#gid=1983255527

Rank Apr '16 Rank Name Pos Org +/- Prev
1 2 Yoan Moncada 2B CHW 0 1
2 21 Andrew Benintendi OF Bos 0 2
3 13 Shohei Otani SP/OF Japan 5 8
4 12 Alex Reyes SP StL 0 4
5 37 Victor Robles OF Was 2 7
6 16 Dansby Swanson SS Atl 0 6
7 42 Gleyber Torres SS NYY 12 19
8 20 Brendan Rodgers SS Col 2 10
9 26 Rafael Devers 3B Bos 9 18
10 205 Eloy Jimenez OF CHC 10 20
11 65 Cody Bellinger 1B LAD 17 28
12 39 Austin Meadows OF Pit 1 13
13 48 Ozhaino Albies SS Atl 1 14
14 23 Manuel Margot OF SD 2 16
15 3 Lucas Giolito SP CHW -10 5
16 14 Yulieski Gurriel 1B Hou -13 3
17 46 Josh Bell 1B Pit -5 12
18 36 Clint Frazier OF NYY -7 11
19 5 J.P. (John Paul) Crawford SS Phi -2 17
20 95 Amed Rosario SS NYM 2 22
21 81 Willy Adames SS TB 0 21
22 15 Jorge Mateo SS NYY -7 15
23 58 Kyle Tucker OF Hou 0 23
24 66 Hunter Renfroe OF SD 9 33
25 8 Tyler Glasnow SP Pit -16 9
26 18 Lewis Brinson OF Mil -2 24
27 25 Franklin Barreto SS Oak -1 26
28 30 Anderson Espinoza SP SD 1 29
29 52 Corey Ray OF Mil 2 31
30 146 Kyle Lewis OF Sea 2 32
31 60 Francis Martes SP Hou 18 49
32 172 Yadier Alvarez SP LAD 23 55
33 29 Jose De Leon SP TB -3 30
34 56 Brent Honeywell SP TB 0 34
35 143 Nick Senzel 3B Cin 4 39
36 122 Tyler O'Neill OF Sea -9 27
37 70 Ian Happ OF CHC -12 25
38 17 Bradley Zimmer OF Cle -3 35
39 171 Michael Kopech SP CHW 6 45
40 38 Anthony Alford OF Tor 0 40
41 141 Vladimir Guerrero 3B Tor 2 43
42 161 Mickey Moniak OF Phi -1 41
43 144 Blake Rutherford OF NYY -1 42
44 427 Ronald Acuna OF Atl 67 111
45 431 Leodys Taveras OF Tex -1 44
46 NR Andrew Toles OF LAD 16 62
47 100 Kolby Allard SP Atl -1 46
48 934 Mitch Keller SP Pit -1 47
49 125 David Paulino SP Hou 2 51
50 107 Reynaldo Lopez SP CHW 16 66
51 177 Luke Weaver SP StL -1 50
52 199 Jharel Cotton SP Oak 13 65
53 82 Luis Ortiz SP Mil 0 53
54 22 A.J. Reed 1B Hou -17 37
55 77 Raimel Tapia OF Col 3 58
56 189 Josh Hader SP Mil -4 52
57 148 A.J. Puk SP Oak -1 56
58 53 Jason Groome SP Bos -1 57
59 54 Alfredo Despaigne OF Cuba -11 48
60 203 Kevin Maitan SS Atl -6 54
61 85 Albert Almora OF CHC 2 63
62 44 Aaron Judge OF NYY -3 59
63 80 Roman Quinn OF Phi -3 60
64 267 Teoscar Hernandez OF Hou -3 61
65 129 Erick Fedde SP Was 2 67
66 84 Amir Garrett SP Cin 2 68
67 74 Cody Reed SP Cin 3 70
68 31 Sean Newcomb SP Atl -32 36
69 708 Robert Gsellman SP NYM NA NR
70 381 Yohander Mendez SP Tex 12 82
71 213 Isan Diaz 2B Mil 2 73
72 756 Franklin Perez SP Hou 62 134
73 108 Matt Chapman 3B Oak 4 77
74 68 Bobby Bradley 1B Cle -36 38
75 253 Aristides Aquino OF Cin 4 79
76 92 Alex Verdugo OF LAD 0 76
77 96 Jake Bauers OF TB 1 78
78 333 Zack Collins C CHW 19 97
79 109 Dominic Smith 1B NYM 43 122
80 288 Kevin Newman SS Pit 11 91
81 72 Derek Fisher OF Hou -6 75
82 69 Nick Gordon SS Min 2 84
83 NR Taylor Trammell OF Cin NA NR
84 145 Delvin Perez SS StL 58 142
85 202 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B Pit 13 98
86 73 Lourdes Gurriel OF Tor -12 74
87 43 Jesse Winker OF Cin -4 83
88 47 Robert Stephenson SP Cin -19 69
89 242 Mike Soroka SP Atl -4 85
90 138 Sean Reid-Foley SP Tor -4 86
91 241 Triston McKenzie SP Cle 1 92
92 137 James Kaprielian SP NYY 47 139
93 345 Cal Quantrill SP SD 52 145
94 438 Luiz Gohara SP Atl 11 105
95 369 Christin Stewart OF Det 6 101
96 531 Francisco Mejia C Cle 17 113
97 132 Justus Sheffield SP NYY 2 99
98 220 Stephen Gonsalves SP Min -11 87
99 346 Jeren Kendall OF College 49 148
100 NR Hunter Greene SP HS NA NR
101 124 Brady Aiken SP Cle 9 110
102 239 Franklyn Kilome SP Phi -8 94
103 40 Nick Williams OF Phi 17 120
104 289 Willie Calhoun 2B LAD 19 123
105 192 Brandon Nimmo OF NYM -15 90
106 440 Jahmai Jones OF LAA NA NR
107 443 Michael Gettys OF SD -43 64
108 57 Trent Clark OF Mil 16 124
109 487 Sandy Alcantara SP StL -14 95
110 NR Matt Manning SP Det 36 146
111 217 Tyler Beede SP SF 14 125
112 339 Ian Anderson SP Atl 32 144
113 216 Dylan Cease SP CHC 13 126
114 99 Carson Fulmer SP CHW -7 107
115 163 Alec Hansen SP CHW -22 93
116 91 Christian Arroyo 3B SF -13 103
117 271 Adrian Morejon SP SD 19 136
118 140 Phil Bickford SP Mil -30 88
119 139 Jack Flaherty SP StL -11 108
120 75 Grant Holmes SP Oak -40 80
121 NR Luis Urias 2B SD -49 72
122 168 Yusniel Diaz OF LAD -51 71
123 156 Randy Arozarena SS StL -11 112
124 NR Alex Kirilloff OF Min 16 140
125 287 Harrison Bader OF StL -44 81
126 204 Richard Urena SS Tor 2 128
127 NR Braxton Garrett SP Mia 16 143
128 573 Anthony Banda SP Ari -10 118
129 176 Francellis Montas SP Oak 1 130
130 126 Touki Toussaint SP Atl -24 106
131 810 Chance Adams SP NYY NA NR
132 879 Thomas Szapucki SP NYM NA NR
133 NR Sixto Sanchez SP Phi NA NR
134 NR Forrest Whitley SP Hou NA NR
135 796 Mitch Haniger OF Sea NA NR
136 196 Tom Murphy C Col NA NR
137 NR Ramon Laureano OF Hou NA NR
138 379 Luis Alexander Basabe OF CHW NA NR
139 546 Mauricio Dubon 2B Mil NA NR
140 NR Juan Soto OF Was -13 127
141 NR Bo Bichette SS Tor 0 141
142 280 Dan Vogelbach 1B Sea NA NR
143 88 Renato Nunez 3B Oak -43 100
144 294 Casey Gillaspie 1B TB -11 133
145 236 Rowdy (Ryan) Tellez 1B Tor NA NR
146 437 Dylan Cozens OF Phi -27 119
147 436 Rhys Hoskins 1B Phi NA NR
148 152 Jeff Hoffman SP Col -10 138
149 313 Hayato Sakamoto SS Japan 0 149
150 149 Riley Pint SP Col 0 150

Eligibles that dropped off (16):
Alen Hanson (#89), Marcos Diplan (#96), Ryan McMahon (#102), Brett Phillips (#104), Beau Burrows (#109), Travis Demeritte (#114), Zach Granite (#115), Austin Riley (#116), Trevor Clifton (#117), Chris Shaw (#121), Domingo Acevedo (#129), Tyler Jay (#131), Max Fried (#132), Adalberto Mejia (#135), Jose Miguel Fernandez (#137), Jorge Ona (#147)

New additions (16):
Robert Gsellman, Taylor Trammel, Hunter Greene, Jahmai Jones, Chance Adams, Thomas Szapucki, Sixto Sanchez, Forrest Whitley, Mitch Haniger, Tom Murphy, Ramon Laureano, Luis Alexander Basabe, Mauricio Dubon, Dan Vogelbach, Rowdy Tellez, Rhys Hoskins

As always, comments are not only welcome but encouraged. Enjoy!

[onejayhawk]

Huzzah. One of the annual rites is on us.

Thanks as always.

J

[Sour Masher]

Always great to see your list RHD. I notice the best new draftees are tiered pretty close together, and I know you rank them on many factors. If you had to rank the new draftees solely on offenive upside, regardless of floor or how far they are from the majors, how would you rank the top 3?

[rhd]

Always great to see your list RHD. I notice the best new draftees are tiered pretty close together, and I know you rank them on many factors. If you had to rank the new draftees solely on offenive upside, regardless of floor or how far they are from the majors, how would you rank the top 3?

Thanx as always for the response, Sour Masher.

Without thinking about it much, I think I'd rank them pretty much the same. I dont think any of them are particularly close to MLB. Senzel probably is the closest and he probably doesnt have the upside that a lot of the others do, altho he is considered the safest bet. So Senzel would be one of the few that I'd change. Another guy that I think has tremendous upside, at least for roto, is Taylor Trammel. So I might move him up a bit.

[Sour Masher]

Thanx as always for the response, Sour Masher.

Without thinking about it much, I think I'd rank them pretty much the same. I dont think any of them are particularly close to MLB. Senzel probably is the closest and he probably doesnt have the upside that a lot of the others do, altho he is considered the safest bet. So Senzel would be one of the few that I'd change. Another guy that I think has tremendous upside, at least for roto, is Taylor Trammel. So I might move him up a bit.

Thanks rhd. I hadn't looked closely on Trammel. Thanks for putting him on my radar!

[GwynnInTheHall]

Thanks man!!

[Sharky]

Suhweet!

Thanks, rhd. Some prospects moved up. Most should given attrition. So the ones that fall... should we consider that a bigger decline than it might seem? Jesse Winker, I'm looking at you!

[rhd]

Thanks man!!

You're welcome!

[rhd]

Suhweet!

Thanks, rhd. Some prospects moved up. Most should given attrition. So the ones that fall... should we consider that a bigger decline than it might seem? Jesse Winker, I'm looking at you!

Thanx as always for the response, Sharky.

Folks generally are down on Winker, and the only reason he's still as high as he is on my list is because he still has a reasonable chance of being an MLB regular.

Did any prospect improve their stock more in 2016 than Mitch Keller? Probably not many. As you can see, he was on my radar last year but went from #934 to #48. And I probably should have him even higher since BA just put him at #22 on their list, ahead of Glasnow.

[Hornsby]

Thanks my friend, not only are you a great member of this community, you are a valued resource as well!

Question, why the big drop for Michael Gettys? Looks to me like he made a lot of strides in the right direction last season...

[rhd]

Thanks my friend, not only are you a great member of this community, you are a valued resource as well!

Question, why the big drop for Michael Gettys? Looks to me like he made a lot of strides in the right direction last season...

Thanx for the very kind words and thanx as always for the response, Hornsby.

Gettys didnt get rated nearly as highly by the reputable sources as I thought he would. BA had him at only #8 on their Padres list and BP didnt have him among their top 10 Padres. FanGraphs gave him an overall 40 FV which is pretty mediocre. OTOH, MLB Reports had him at #99 overall and Rich Wilson had him at #77. I think he still projects as at least a 2nd-division MLB regular and he has both speed and some pop so I think he's fairly attractive in roto.

[Roy Hobbs]

Maitan will be moving up this board very soon.

[Big Tymer]

Maitan will be moving up this board very soon.

Agree. The challenge with Maitan will be that you need to overdraft him in order to have a shot in dynasty /deep-keeper formats. Very little detailed info on him but constant references to scouts who are in love with him. BA has a short video clip as part of their top-100 but hard to glean anything from it. High risk, high reward for those who take him over some of the highly drafted, but lower ceiling players from LY.

[cavebird]

I'll be the voice of dissent here. I don't think he makes a major move for a year or two. He's so young, I doubt he plays anywhere other than the DSL this year, and I don't think that will move the needle much.

[Big Tymer]

Not sure. I think the uncertainty around him from lack of eyeballs on his game is holding him back (or inflating him if he proves to be over-rated). Whether in SS or DSL I think more video and scouting reports will emerge to push him in one direction of the other.