2k17: Jon Lester

[harmon]

A few things are concerning me about Lester 2017 and I could use some help off the ledge.

1. He's lost his personal caddy David Ross. Lester seems like a bit of head case and Ross has been a great calming influence on him and somehow managed to keep the running game from exploding on him. Contreras is a nice bat and seems like a pretty good athletic defensive catcher, especially for his age, but I'm worried that Ross will be missed particularly by Lester.

2. Some talk about Cubs going with a 6 man rotation in response to the long post season run last year. This might be hot air, but if they were to go with it all year, that's several less starts and a new rhythm to adjust to.

3. Schwarber in LF. Not exactly Willie Mays out there. As with Contreras the run support helps, but does that offset the overall pitcher value with a clydesdale in the OF?

[chancellor]

Point one is a valid concern. I don't see point two happening, other than maybe if they clinch home field very, very early. Point three...LF in Wrigley isn't exactly a big field. Given their superior defense elsewhere, I think it's a minor factor.

[virgonomic]

He's a stud. I think you are overthinking things. He might only win 15 games, and his ERA could come down a bit. World Series hangover.

That said, I flipped him for Nelson Cruz in a 4-keeper league since I also have Kluber (and Verlander and Porcello, who I'm trying to trade).

[DMT]

Lester is a beast, he'll get over it. I don't expect him to have another career year but he'll still be among the top tier of SPs in value this season IMO. Contreras will also help control the running game.

[cavebird]

I would expect the regression that would be likely without these factors--his ERA was significantly better than his FIP last year--but nothing significantly worse.