Question for the SABR types

[onejayhawk]

How does Trout rank with the great CF of other eras? Speaker, Dimaggio, Mays all did everything well, as does Trout. Are there tools for comparison?

J

[Controller Jacobs]

Defensive WAR is always debatable, but here's an interesting evalation using B-R's WAR (offense + defense):

The B-R JAWS score evaluates top all-time players at each position based on their best seven season WARs (they do not have to be consecutive) and career total WAR
Trout has only had five full seasons, and he is already 9th at CF in WAR7:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_CF.shtml (*note - sort by WAR7 by clicking on it)

Removing 2011 (40 games/135PA), he has 47.8 WAR in 5 seasons
Assuming he gets two more seasons that average 8.1 WAR (which is a pretty conservative bet), he will have a WAR7 of at least 74.0.
The best WAR7 for a CF is Willie Mays - 73.7. Second-best is Ty Cobb (69.0) The top WAR7 post-Mays is Griffey (53.9)

So by that scale Trout is on pace to have the most dominant stretch by a CF ever.
After that, hard to say how a guy ages (Griffey had a WAR over 2.0 once after age 30, his dad did it three times after age 30).

[onejayhawk]

I was looking at the similar players section of BR. Paul Goldschmidt is the most similar hitter. The same age comps are even more interesting.

Most Similar by Ages

20 Vada Pinson (955)
21 Frank Robinson (957)
22 Mickey Mantle (941)
23 Mickey Mantle (941)
24 Mickey Mantle (960)

Anything over 950 is very similar. Vada Pinson's rookie season was MVP worthy.

We are seeing a young, healthy Mantle. Bill James did a long comparison between Mantle and Mays. When healthy, Mantle was clearly better.

J

[Judge Jude]

We are seeing a young, healthy Mantle. Bill James did a long comparison between Mantle and Mays. When healthy, Mantle was clearly better.
J

1950s AL felt pretty much the Yankees and a Class AAA league in many of the years. And Mantle didn't bat against the Yankees pitchers.

Aaron, Mays, F Robinson, Pinson, Clemente, Cepeda, McCovey, Banks, Wills, Flood, BWhite - the NL batting list goes on.

guys who "looked like them" in the AL? Minnie Minoso (who was from "good" Cuba btw). Elston Howard.

The Yankees didn't have a black player until 1955. The Red Sox didn't have one until 1959.

Mantle was great, but his hitting and pitching competition was inferior to what Mays faced.

As for Trout, he's already giving us a reasonable peak argument. now he just needs to fill in his prime.