Who to Keep?

[Hornsby]

5x5 with OBP replacing Average, $260 budget. Currently looking at keeping Hanley at 24 bucks, but I was thinking about something Lord Zola said on the radio the other day and started considering Manny Machado at $53. His point, if I can paraphrase it, is that you're going to pay that price at some point during the auction, so why not keep a sure thing? I think that's a rough approximation of what he said. I think that I'd be a lot more easily convinced if Manny had actually stolen a base last year...

Another option might be Pedroia at 17, but I'm not seriously considering that one, unless someone has a good reason why I should.

[Hodor]

I'd keep machado, but then I'm the guy keeping 8 pitchers.....

[Pogues]

The Orioles had less stolen bases in 2016 than Machado had in 2015. Don't count on very many steals from Manny, I'd guess 5 at most.

[Redbirds Fan]

I don't know much about Machado, but I looked up his career stats and here are some things I would consider before going long. His counting stats and slash lines are amazing the last two years, and trending upward, and his is young enough to keep moving up, but:

Counting stats the last two year were pushed by a huge number of plate appearances.
He may have lost his value as a base stealer.
He didn't have much of an eye last year. His K/BB was 120/48, down quite a bit from 2015.
There is always the issue of regression to the mean.
There may be some recency bias making him look extra good.

He may still be worth $53. But at some point, people keeping high price players because of high league inflation will actually counter that league inflation, making those high price players no longer keeper candidates. Just my thoughts.

[Big Tymer]

I don't have a problem keeping expensive players just for that reason. Not sure Machado would cross $50 but with this league you never know. A lot of teams have a lot of money to spend and it only takes 1 other owner...

[DMT]

I'd keep Hanley +$29.

[Sharky]

I'd keep Hanley +$29.

I agree with DMT. Is this AL only?

[Sour Masher]

I gotta ask...why is Hanley clearly the better keeper over Petey? Sure, Petey's has big health risk, but so does Hanley, and Petey is cheaper, and he plays a more premium position. I'm not saying he is the guy to keep, but he cerrtainly seems to be in the same tier of value. Petey plus $7 vs Hanley seems pretty close to me.

As far as Machado, I'd have no prob keeping him at $53, and if you love him, that is probably the play to make. However, if all you want is an elite bat, but not necessarily Machado specifically, I'd probably toss him back for the auction flexibility that money would give me. Every year, it seems, one elite guy goes for a bit under cost. Sometimes the guy who shocks me the most. Trout, for instance, went for I think $51 in Idle Hands last year. It shocked me and I didn't have the budget to capitalize on it. Other premium guys were going for as much or more. I'm guessing everyone assumed Trout would go for more and had their plans set elsewhere.

[Hornsby]

I gotta ask...why is Hanley clearly the better keeper over Petey? Sure, Petey's has big health risk, but so does Hanley, and Petey is cheaper, and he plays a more premium position. I'm not saying he is the guy to keep, but he cerrtainly seems to be in the same tier of value. Petey plus $7 vs Hanley seems pretty close to me.

As far as Machado, I'd have no prob keeping him at $53, and if you love him, that is probably the play to make. However, if all you want is an elite bat, but not necessarily Machado specifically, I'd probably toss him back for the auction flexibility that money would give me. Every year, it seems, one elite guy goes for a bit under cost. Sometimes the guy who shocks me the most. Trout, for instance, went for I think $51 in Idle Hands last year. It shocked me and I didn't have the budget to capitalize on it. Other premium guys were going for as much or more. I'm guessing everyone assumed Trout would go for more and had their plans set elsewhere.

I just think that Hanley is going to generate more counting stats other than runs, so he's a pretty clear pick for me. His 2nd half last year was great, and I think that he's happy now where he is and where he's playing. Love Petey, but he still scares me with the way he plays.

[chancellor]

I'd keep Pedroia - he has a high level of certainty to hit $17 in value. Hanley has been a $20 player very few times in the past four years. Plus, you get $12, which I have full confidence you'll spend wisely.

Given how little Machado is running now, I'd pass on him at $53. Like you, I have worlds of respect for Lord Zola, but I don't see Machado earning that under any scenario.

[Hornsby]

I'd keep Pedroia - he has a high level of certainty to hit $17 in value. Hanley has been a $20 player very few times in the past four years. Plus, you get $12, which I have full confidence you'll spend wisely.

Given how little Machado is running now, I'd pass on him at $53. Like you, I have worlds of respect for Lord Zola, but I don't see Machado earning that under any scenario.

Interesting...a couple of late Petey votes which I wasn't expecting. I'll have to take a closer look at that choice. Thanks for the solid feedback.

[Sour Masher]

Interesting...a couple of late Petey votes which I wasn't expecting. I'll have to take a closer look at that choice. Thanks for the solid feedback.

Although, is chance for him at $12 or still with him at only a $7 difference? He's only $7 cheaper, not $12. Me, I'm biased, because I've always loved Petey, and Hanley has burnt me before.

[Hornsby]

Petey is 17 and Hanley is 24...neither is going cheaper in our league. 18 team mixer 5x5 with OBP replacing Ave.

Yeah, I know what you mean about Hanley...he could be 35/120, or he could go 17/75...there's a fair amount of dog in that young man. With Petey, you know you'll get max effort at all times.

[chancellor]

Although, is chance for him at $12 or still with him at only a $7 difference? He's only $7 cheaper, not $12. Me, I'm biased, because I've always loved Petey, and Hanley has burnt me before.

My mistake...saw $29 in one post and didn't read back enough.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, I know what you mean about Hanley...he could be 35/120, or he could go 17/75...there's a fair amount of dog in that young man. With Petey, you know you'll get max effort at all times.

This sums it up for me. Petey might fall apart on you, but it is hard to get mad at him for it. If/when Hanley dogs it to a streaky up and down $15 season, you are going to not want to stop your car if you happen to see him cross the street.