2k17: Gary Sanchez

[revo]

Call me a little skeptical of Gary Sanchez in 2017.

He came up and blasted 20 HRs in just 229 PAs, which is phenomenal, but quite unlike anything he had done in the minors before that. As a routine attendee at SWB Yankee games, I had never seen power like this from him.

In any case, his entire 2016 season was a power showcase, as he smashed 30 HRs combined. But his prior season high was 18. Maybe his display at the AFL in 2015 foretold his power surge, as he hit 7 HRs in just 88 ABs.

But because of this, he has tongues wagging and he's going off the board as the #2 catcher with a 46 ADP, according to NFBC (which uses 2 catchers). That seems crazy to me, so I know I won't land him in 2017.

Does anyone here feel very confident in his 2017 prospects to grab him as a Top 50 fantasy player?

[wannabegriffey]

But because of this, he has tongues wagging and he's going off the board as the #2 catcher with a 46 ADP, according to NFBC (which uses 2 catchers). That seems crazy to me, so I know I won't land him in 2017.

I've been looking all over the site at nfbc and can not find the ADP's, can you link us??

[revo]

I've been looking all over the site at nfbc and can not find the ADP's, can you link us??

http://stats.nesn.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=all

[kawaise]

Call me a little skeptical of Gary Sanchez in 2017.

Does anyone here feel very confident in his 2017 prospects to grab him as a Top 50 fantasy player?

In short, no, I don't feel confident to pick him as a Top 50 fantasy player. I share your skepticism. His power is intriguing, but a 40% HR to fly ball rate screams regression. I typically try to minimize risk with early picks; someone else can gamble.

[chancellor]

No way I take a catcher that high. Regression risk combined with injury risk...yuck.

[Judge Jude]

You have to pass, even though I agree with HQ that 30 HR in 2017 is reasonable.

not a complete fluke by any means, but none of us here would be the most aggressive buyer. he might hit .240 with 18 HR.

don't pay full price for any guy who doesn't have 2 years of established quality at that level, unless you have a bad keeper list and the whole league is leery.

I think Sanchez will be good like ATL McCann was good. but don't fall in love.

[joncarlos]

He's all over the map.

He's going to play a lot. I think he'll get an occasional game at DH. He doesn't need to hit 40% of his fly balls out of the park to hit 30 bombs. His average exit velocity was 6th in MLB.

His fly ball mix probably wasn't what you think - 49% ground balls, only 16% line drives, 34% fly balls, and a lot of popups.

Still, given his exit velocity, can he hit 20% HR/FB? 16%? Cut it to 16%, increase his K rate a bit, and I bet you've still got 30 HR in 500 ABs.

I'm not quite bullish enough to get him in most leagues, but I'm more optimistic than most. Let's say 500 ABs, .260-30-90.