Paxton vs Rodon - who do you want?

[Moonlight J]

1 Page size: 2 items in 1 pages
1	James Paxton	Mariners	511	121.0	22.9 %	4.7 %	0.67	.347	66.3 %	48.1 %	8.2 %	3.79	2.80	3.35	85.4 %	62.4 %	11.7 %	32.0 %
2	Carlos Rodon	White Sox	715	165.0	23.5 %	7.6 %	1.25	.330	75.6 %	44.1 %	13.8 %	4.04	4.01	3.89	86.7 %	54.3 %	10.1 %	28.9 %

2017 ADP:
Paxton - 57th in starting pitchers
Rodon - 56th in starting pitchers

2016 $ (15 team mixed 5x5 value)
Paxton - $0
Rodon - $2

[wannabegriffey]

I'd go Rodon. Already has a 165 inning season, doesn't have the injury history of paxton, great improvement in his walk rate from year 1 to year 2. Strong pedigree (#3 overall). That said, Seattle is going to be better for the next couple of years and if this is a roto question, I suppose the opportunity for wins has to be taken into account.

[Ken]

Rodon for me. Rodon still on the way up, and he improved his BB/9 last year. Paxton's numbers were damn good last year though - will he stay healthy?

[Moonlight J]

Some Paxton-related stuff: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/james...angle-on-life/
His cutter made Eno Sarris's best pitch list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016s...n-by-starters/

[revo]

Rodon tremendously improved his BB% from '15 to '16, so I'd take him for next year. I do like Paxton, however, but think Rodon is far more talented.

[chancellor]

I'm going with Paxton for this year. The White Sox are probably going to burn down the house, and the replacements not only look inferior offensively, but in some of the cases, defensively too. Add in his awful home park, and I don't see much hope for improvement in Rodon's HR/9 and HR/FB rate. Add in a significant improvement in WHIP would still be 1.3, and Rodon just doesn't look that attractive to me this year. His improvements were impressive last year, but even with that, his 4 ERA was supported by FIP and xFIP pretty closely, and that 1.39 WHIP was death for a lot fantasy owners.

Paxton comes with a lot of health risk - that cutter is evil, but it's also an arm destroyer for many pitchers - but I think he'll put up better ratios, similar wins (even in less outings), and slightly lower Ks. I think he'll come cheaper than Rodon, too, since Paxton is more of a "post-hype" pitcher.

P.S. Great thread idea, Jason!