Contraction and Inflation

[Hodor]

Our league is possibly losing the 1-3 owners. I can't imagine we will replace all three so that means from 33-99 players will be dumped back into the player pool.

We are also going to expand reserve rosters from 10-17 meaning we're draining at the very least 84 players from the pool. Now at 15 teams that meant going deep into the minors and international players, but should we end up with 12 teams, not really.

We also move from 10 MLB keeps +3 minor keeps to 15 keeps of any kind (rookies still don't count against the cap.

My thoughts are that while it WAS smart to hold big contracts and borderline at value keeps, should the league contract in ownership while expanding in roster size, that there will be a lot of players going under value and that having extra money and roster space is the way to go.

Am I seeing this correctly?

[The Dane]

High end players will be, essentially, unchanged. And until people figure out the new dynamic, several mid-range guys will go for too much. Ultimately, about one-third of the mid-range guys will go for a few bucks less and your late-game flyers will be better. This almost always helps the stronger owners, because their late game is better and they adjust quicker.

[Judge Jude]

you can see it if you rank by position.

in a 12-team league with 2 Cs each, the 24th guy goes for a buck (and maybe 21-23, too)
in a 9-team league, the 18th guy likely is a buck or so (and maybe 15-17, too)

some owners will make the mistake, in that scenario, of keeping a 15th-best guy at a 12-team price. then they'll groan as they see the bargains once the end game nears.

"High end players will be, essentially, unchanged."

probably so, although it's not a purely logical exercise so one contracting league could tend to bid more for the best players while another tends to bid less. depends on league psychology, in part.

[Fresno Bob]

I've never contracted, only expanded, and it is frightening what expansion does for inflation, and what becomes the "new normal" in dollar days....

[Judge Jude]

I've never contracted, only expanded, and it is frightening what expansion does for inflation, and what becomes the "new normal" in dollar days....

Fresno Bob should use this as signature