Early Keepers - AL 10 team

[SlideRule]

I enjoy the early keeper threads, so I'll submit my own here for your consideration. Ended up in 3rd this year, 1K or 0.001 AVG out of 2nd... But I still have a decent crop of keepers. Which 8 would you keep from these right now? Some interesting position eligibility questions with Machado at SS and plenty of MI options. A-B-C contracts at static salaries. 2-catcher, standard roto league. Bolded ones are my top 8 at first glance. Would kind of like to keep Zunino, but not sure who to drop off. Should probably try to trade a SS/2B to not be full there in auction. And I could easily have all 6 of my 1B/3B/CI and 2B/SS/MI slots filled going into the auction... is that bad?

Machado $20 C (SS/3B)
Seager $23 B (3B)
Travis $8 B (2B)
J. Ramirez $4 B (3B/OF)
T. Anderson $7 B (SS)
Napoli $7 B (1B)
Zunino $5 B (C)
Dozier $27 B (2B)

D. Duffy $5 B
E. Diaz $5 B
S. Dyson $3 B
Rodon $8 C

[virgonomic]

At first glance I agree on your 8. However, I'm really trying to find a way to get Dyson onto your list. I might keep him over Duffy, and I think he represents more profit than Seager. I think he will remain as Texas' closer. I would monitor things until the freeze deadline.

[SlideRule]

I am tempted to try to get Rodon on my list too, as he was really showing some promise with the Ks and improved command later in the season. I think 2017 could be a breakout year for him. But not sure it's worth gambling on that over some of the other choices.

[wannabegriffey]

I am tempted to try to get Rodon on my list too, as he was really showing some promise with the Ks and improved command later in the season. I think 2017 could be a breakout year for him. But not sure it's worth gambling on that over some of the other choices.

In smaller leagues, I think it wiser to throw back a rodon...especially @ $8...and try to pick him up at auction for a cheaper price AND AS A FIRST YEAR CONTRACT.

[SlideRule]

Rodon will go for something between $15-$20 next year in my league. Duffy I would guess around $20+

[wannabegriffey]

Rodon pitched just 160 innings, had an era slightly above 4 and a whip of 1.4.

If what you are saying is accurate re $15-$20, I would throw him back and let someone take the risk with almost 10% of their auction budget.

[SlideRule]

Rodon pitched just 160 innings, had an era slightly above 4 and a whip of 1.4.

If what you are saying is accurate re $15-$20, I would throw him back and let someone take the risk with almost 10% of their auction budget.

I certainly appreciate your advice here. Rodon also had 168 Ks in those 160 IP, and seems like someone who is more likely to get better than worse. That will help to drive his price beyond what backward looking stats might support. That, and we have around 15% inflation usually.

[Gregg]

When we only get 8 keepers we all have to make some hard decisions. It is not that Rodon is not a keeper at $8, it is you have better options. Looking at your list he just wouldn't make it if it was my team.

I am also finding a way to keep Dozier.

[wannabegriffey]

When we only get 8 keepers we all have to make some hard decisions. It is not that Rodon is not a keeper at $8, it is you have better options. Looking at your list he just wouldn't make it if it was my team.

I am also finding a way to keep Dozier.

I would pound the trade community all winter looking to give up 2 to get a better 1 back.

[SlideRule]

I would pound the trade community all winter looking to give up 2 to get a better 1 back.

I did that last year, and got a $7 Lorenzo Cain for my cheap Odorizzi and J Dyson, and then ended up essentially losing to that guy by a difference of 3 SBs. Doh.

And who do I drop in order to keep Dozier? Would have to be someone in my MI, and I see him as a serious regression candidate, as much as I loved his HR binge in the second half.

[virgonomic]

I missed him the first time, but I don't think Dozier at 27 makes the cut with all the positive value guys you have. Agree on trying to do one or two 2-for-1s.

[SlideRule]

I took another look at my AL-only keepers decision, and decided to compare the conventional RJ wisdom to the numbers available on the FanGraphs and Fantasy Pro auction value calculators (admittedly faulty and early). That said, it was interesting. Of my keepers, Machado $20, D Duffy $5, and E Diaz $5 were locks. But surprisingly, the "calculators" really like Jose Ramirez (projected ~$22) and Tim Anderson (~$20) more than I expected, and conversely the calculators valued K Seager ($23), C Rodon ($8), and Zunino ($5) a lot less than I expected. Do these valuations change anyone's thoughts on who the best keepers are? The calculated values include 15% of auction inflation added.

Keepers.jpg

Player Salary AVG $ Rank
Napoli $7 $10 8
Seager $23 $23 13
Ramirez $4 $25 2
Travis $8 $18 6
Anderson $7 $21 3
Machado $20 $41 1
Dozier $27 $29 10
Duffy $5 $17 5
Diaz $5 $17 4
Dyson $3 $7 7
Rodon $8 $8 12
Zunino $5 $6 11
Chapman $20 $22 9

[virgonomic]

I rank them as

Machado $20 $41 1
Anderson $7 $21 3
Diaz $5 $17 4
Ramirez $4 $25 2
Travis $8 $18 6
Duffy $5 $17 5
Dyson $3 $7 7
Napoli $7 $10 8
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Seager $23 $23 13
Dozier $27 $29 10
Chapman $20 $22 9
Rodon $8 $8 12
Zunino $5 $6 11

So my top 8 are still the same. Like I said in the fall, you clearly have 8 positive value guys and 5 at-value guys.

Dyson $7 seems very low. He had 38 saves last year. Bush and Jeffress are still in the mix but the job is Dyson's to lose and he should be good for 30 saves.

[chancellor]

Agree that Dyson is low. Tim Anderson, I suspect, is very high. He waves more than a friendly southern grannie at a town picnic...that .284 BA isn't going to come close to standing up without a sharp improvement in his batting eye.

If you're still shopping a 2-1, I'd pair him up with Rodon - that might just attract a very good offer.