another early look at keepers

[mjl]

I think this is going to be my first year missing the money in all three of my leagues, and I'm going to end up in 5th where top 4 get paid in two of them. Argh.

12-team mixed, 5x5 using AVG. 6 keepers, salaries go up $5/year. Full rosters including 2 catchers. If there aren't six good keepers on this list I can go scrounging, but I suspect there are.

options:
Lucroy $11
Bryant $13
Trea Turner $6
Donaldson $37
Napoli $6
Blackmon $32
Stroman $11
Oh $6
Andrew Miller $7
Aaron Sanchez $6
Schwarber $7
Tom Murphy $6

[Ken]

I think this is going to be my first year missing the money in all three of my leagues, and I'm going to end up in 5th where top 4 get paid in two of them. Argh.

12-team mixed, 5x5 using AVG. 6 keepers, salaries go up $5/year. Full rosters including 2 catchers. If there aren't six good keepers on this list I can go scrounging, but I suspect there are.

options:
Lucroy $11
Bryant $13
Trea Turner $6
Donaldson $37
Napoli $6
Blackmon $32
Stroman $11
Oh $6
Andrew Miller $7
Aaron Sanchez $6
Schwarber $7
Tom Murphy $6

Good list.
Are keepers due at the end of the year? Or are you just looking at this early to make decisions on offseason trades for example?
What's your typical/expected inflation rate?

[revo]

Lucroy $11
Bryant $13
Trea Turner $6
Donaldson $37
Napoli $6
Blackmon $32
Stroman $11
Oh $6
Andrew Miller $7
Aaron Sanchez $6
Schwarber $7
Tom Murphy $6


For number #6, it should be Andrew Miller, but it's surprising that he wasn't getting saves in CLE. If they announce he's the guy, I'd keep him. Otherwise, I'd flip between Lucroy & Blackmon.

[mjl]

Good list.
Are keepers due at the end of the year? Or are you just looking at this early to make decisions on offseason trades for example?
What's your typical/expected inflation rate?

I have time, I just like thinking about baseball more than football. With only six keepers pls three minor leaguers, inflation is pretty low, maybe 10% overall.

oh, I didn't realize Peraza went over the rookie AB cap. Another option is Peraza $1.

[Ken]

Lucroy $11
Bryant $13
Trea Turner $6
Donaldson $37
Napoli $6
Blackmon $32
Stroman $11
Oh $6
Andrew Miller $7
Aaron Sanchez $6
Schwarber $7
Tom Murphy $6


For number #6, it should be Andrew Miller, but it's surprising that he wasn't getting saves in CLE. If they announce he's the guy, I'd keep him. Otherwise, I'd flip between Lucroy & Blackmon.

I agree with the majority of your selections/analysis.

Schwarber is OF only now, I'm not sure he's keepable at $7 coming off a missed season and not having an established history to fall back on.

In a 2 catcher league isn't Lucroy worth significantly more than $11? In fantasy he's been the best catcher in MLB for 2016 right?
I don't see how Lucroy is left out.

I'd swap Schwarber with Lucroy then go with the rest of revo's list personally.

[revo]

I agree with the majority of your selections/analysis.

Schwarber is OF only now, I'm not sure he's keepable at $7 coming off a missed season and not having an established history to fall back on.

In a 2 catcher league isn't Lucroy worth significantly more than $11? In fantasy he's been the best catcher in MLB for 2016 right?
I don't see how Lucroy is left out.

I'd swap Schwarber with Lucroy then go with the rest of revo's list personally.

Yeah, I didn't see that it was 2-catchers. He should be #6 over Blackmon & Miller, IMO.

[mjl]

I know we talked about this in the Schwarber thread a long time ago, but I don't know if Schwarber will be OF only. It seems to vary league by league even if a strict reading of the rules would indicate that he played one game at OF and zero elsewhere so he'd be OF. I guess I'll need to wait until next year to see what this league uses.

re inflation - Trout was $50 this year, Harper $44, Goldschmidt $45, Kershaw $43.

[Ken]

I know we talked about this in the Schwarber thread a long time ago, but I don't know if Schwarber will be OF only. It seems to vary league by league even if a strict reading of the rules would indicate that he played one game at OF and zero elsewhere so he'd be OF. I guess I'll need to wait until next year to see what this league uses.

re inflation - Trout was $50 this year, Harper $44, Goldschmidt $45, Kershaw $43.

Fair on Schwarber, but I'm curious what rules would look like that would have him at a position other than OF.

My understanding coming into the year was that he was going to be a full time OF anyway, so I'm not sure the injury even influenced it.

Are there leagues where positional eligibility is based on something OTHER than what a guy played at the previous year, if that data is available? And if so how are they structured?

I don't know how a non-strict reading of the rules works? Does that mean that guys who are now DH for their MLB team can be retroactively positioned at what they played before they got too old to contribute defensively? That would seem counter to the intent of the positions in fantasy anyway.

As far as your particular league, does it have a constitution? If so there should be an answer laid out for this type situation. And if not - you need one if you are in a serious league!

[Ken]

There's someone in every league that wants that $37 Donaldson too. With the right amount of inflation, that would be me picking off the "expensive" guys who aren't actually expensive when inflation is considered. But in a low inflation league, that's the type guy to trade away because you can get a bounty back from players who are star struck by a big name.

[mjl]

yeah, it looks from the constitution in that league that he'll be OF only.

RJEL for example has this for positional qualification: "Players are eligible at their primary position, plus positions they've played 20 games last year or 10 games this year." where "primary position" is not explicitly defined.

The rule in my NL-only is "In the case of rookies (as well as any player who had less than 75 At Bats in the majors during the previous season) or players moving from the AL to the NL at the annual draft, the Commissioners shall determine their position upon request of any franchise. The guiding philosophy shall be to give latitude to qualify for any plausible position. Planned usage by a major league team will be weighed equally with the position they played at least 20 games at last season in the minor leagues."

[Ken]

yeah, it looks from the constitution in that league that he'll be OF only.

RJEL for example has this for positional qualification: "Players are eligible at their primary position, plus positions they've played 20 games last year or 10 games this year." where "primary position" is not explicitly defined.

The rule in my NL-only is "In the case of rookies (as well as any player who had less than 75 At Bats in the majors during the previous season) or players moving from the AL to the NL at the annual draft, the Commissioners shall determine their position upon request of any franchise. The guiding philosophy shall be to give latitude to qualify for any plausible position. Planned usage by a major league team will be weighed equally with the position they played at least 20 games at last season in the minor leagues."

If I was in the RJEL, I'd ask for primary position to be defined. In my experience that is defined as the position they played the most games at the prior year.

It is also important to establish a hierarchy of what LEAGUE is relevant. i.e. if they played 100 games in the minors last year at SS then came up and played 15 games in MLB at 2B are they a 2B or a SS or both?

The NL-only example above is too vague for my preference. It makes something subjective that does not need to be subjective. No team has a specific advantage based on an agreed upon criteria. In that league at the end of a draft when an obscure name is thrown do you have to wait while position eligibility is debated? Seems like the type issue that should be black and white.

[revo]

"Primary position" in RJEL is defined as whatever CBS's website says their primary position is, but I think we did away with that once CBS allowed you to not use it.

[Gregg]

"Primary position" in RJEL is defined as whatever CBS's website says their primary position is, but I think we did away with that once CBS allowed you to not use it.

If that is the case and you use a 20 game rule, Schwarber should definitely qualify for catcher. Then he would make my top six of this list.

[Ken]

If that is the case and you use a 20 game rule, Schwarber should definitely qualify for catcher. Then he would make my top six of this list.

I'm missing how you came to the conclusion that 20 game rule means Schwarber qualifies at C in 2017? He played 0 games at C in 2016.

[Gregg]

I'm missing how you came to the conclusion that 20 game rule means Schwarber qualifies at C in 2017? He played 0 games at C in 2016.

Because 3 games in 2016 does not qualify him for any position in 2016 (except in season 1 game rules). So we revert back to 2015 in which he had 20 games at catcher. Any quantity 20 or over is equal for fantasy purposes.

He worked on his catching in the off season and was going to be used by the Cubs at catcher (not primary) during this season. Should fantasy owners get penalized because of the early injury?

Just curious, if he only played catcher in 2015 (lets say 120 games) would the 3 games he played in the OF in 2016 trump that?

Schwarber has stated that he intends to catch some in 2017.