Will a pitcher ever win 300 games again?

[TS Garp]

I wonder if pitchers will be as motivated to fight back from injuries and/or pitch at a reduced level for several years (as Maddux and Johnson did, for example) when they've already made hundreds of millions of dollars. Not to say guys like Glavine, Maddux et al weren't making a lot of money but the economics of the game have changed substantially, even since then and I think you'll need a pitcher who puts that milestone above everything else. Or one who's a true freak of nature and doesn't suffer any injuries or diminished play well into his late 30's/early 40's. The latter seems unlikely. But then again, who though Adrian Beltre would reach 3,000 hits and have an outside shot at 500 hr's?

[Lucky]

I'm thinking that Kershaw and Bumgarner will both get 300 wins. Their competition with each other should provide plenty of motivation. But, they will both probably need 20-40 wins after their 40th birthday to do it.

Nobody is going to win 300 games in just 20 seasons or before their 40th birthday. It's going to take a pitcher who begins their career in their early 20's, has a 21-25 year career, who pitches 7 innings plus with regularity, and who can still get a few double digit win seasons beyond the age of 40. Indeed, that's not an easy task.

It's an amazing feat to reach 300. I would have to bet against Kershaw, as outstanding as he is. He would have to continue his present pace, unabated, until he was 40 and still wouldn't quite get there. That means no injuries, no time off, just cranking it out. His wins have gone down the last three years, which doesn't mean they won't go back up, it just means you can't count on 20+. It is a hard thing to do.

[Kevin Seitzer]

So what if you have eleven guys, each with a 10% chance? Lead pipe cinch? Mortal lock? Off the board?

If that was the situation, there would be about a 70% chance that at least one of the eleven guys would make it.

(90% chance for each of them not to make it, and .90*.90...eleven times = 0.31, and 1.00 - 0.31 = 0.69 chance that someone makes it.)

[Fresno Bob]

So what if you have eleven guys, each with a 10% chance? Lead pipe cinch? Mortal lock? Off the board?

it's still under 20% I think, if I'm doing my basic probability correctly .....(which evidently I'm not...)

[onejayhawk]

Current pitchers and all pitchers for all time are two distinct conversations. I am not a fan of Kershaw or Bumgarner but both have a real chance, say 5%-15%.

Long term it's going to happen with regularity again. The deep bullpen movement is just getting started. The era of 6 IP winning pitcher is coming. Even now, put a genuine star on the Royals or the Yankees and we could see a 25 game winner in 200 IP.

J

[Pogues]

Many of you speak of the game as if the way it is now it will always be. The game is ever changing, new methods, rises and falls in power, speed goes up and down, fences move up and back, pitching mounds rise and fall, strategies are continuously being modified, and good gods are rules being changed all the time.

Bet against another pitcher hitting 300 wins? Not a damn chance.

[Sour Masher]

I am not a fan of Kershaw or Bumgarner but both have a real chance, say 5%-15%.

J

I assume you mean you are not confident either will get to 300, not that you don't like either pitcher? I don't know how anyone who likes baseball can't be a fan of these two--unless you are a Rockies, Zona, or Padres fan, but even then, can't see it.

[onejayhawk]

I assume you mean you are not confident either will get to 300, not that you don't like either pitcher? I don't know how anyone who likes baseball can't be a fan of these two--unless you are a Rockies, Zona, or Padres fan, but even then, can't see it.

Exactly. I am not a fan of their chances to win 300.

Bet against another pitcher hitting 300 wins? Not a damn chance.

I would be willing to wager there is a 300 game winner currently in the majors. Kershaw and MadBum are longshots, but a pile of longshots often pays off.

J

[pitbull]

I looked up 300 game winners. In 2003-09 we had 4 pitchers achieve 300 mark. Clemens, Johnson, Glavine and Maddox. From 1983-90 there were 6 pitchers who achieved this. Carlton, Ryan, Sutton, Perry, Seaver and Niekro. Prior to Perry getting his 300 in 1982 there has been only 8 pitchers from Cy Young 1901 to Wynn 1963 achieving this. I believe there will be another 300 winner in baseball at some point but it will take skill, duration meaning staying injury free for the most part plus willing to pitch into their 40s and playing on a decent enough team(s).

[Lucky]

I looked up 300 game winners. In 2003-09 we had 4 pitchers achieve 300 mark. Clemens, Johnson, Glavine and Maddox. From 1983-90 there were 6 pitchers who achieved this. Carlton, Ryan, Sutton, Perry, Seaver and Niekro. Prior to Perry getting his 300 in 1982 there has been only 8 pitchers from Cy Young 1901 to Wynn 1963 achieving this. I believe there will be another 300 winner in baseball at some point but it will take skill, duration meaning staying injury free for the most part plus willing to pitch into their 40s and playing on a decent enough team(s).

Good post.

But sometimes it takes things in addition to skill, duration, etc. Don't everybody get their panties in a bunch, but I started looking at the disparate group of more recent winners. All were outstanding, but most had something extra. Clemens was a cheater. (Yeah, I said it.) So was Perry, in a quaint, socially acceptable sort of way. Sutton started his career, at least, toward the end of that LA period which benefited Koufax so much, where LA offered good run support, league hitting was pretty lousy, and the home field advantage was substantial. (Plus, Sutton didn't have to worry about running the bases much.) Ryan was a freak of nature, which will never be repeated, unless until they allow cyborgs in MLB. Pretty much the same with Johnson. There are some tall guys, but I haven't seen anyone whose slider approaches the plate on the same vector as a throw from first base. Niekro, of course, was a knuckleballer, who doesn't fit into any of these other categories. And then there is the Smartest Pitcher Who Ever Lived. Not likely to see another one of those. As for the other guys...Glavine, Carlton, and Seaver...they were all more unique, I think, than templates we can use to predict future performance for existing aces.

So I don't know for sure. I don't think we can count on rule changes much to help us. I'm not sure the mound has been up an down that much. I'm 60, and I only remember it moving once. I think that was after the '68 season, when the pitchers murderized the hitters and they lowered it to help even it out so the games wouldn't all be 1-0 in 11 innings, or so they said. Hitters usually find a way to help themselves, though.

[madducks]

I looked up 300 game winners. In 2003-09 we had 4 pitchers achieve 300 mark. Clemens, Johnson, Glavine and Maddox. From 1983-90 there were 6 pitchers who achieved this. Carlton, Ryan, Sutton, Perry, Seaver and Niekro. Prior to Perry getting his 300 in 1982 there has been only 8 pitchers from Cy Young 1901 to Wynn 1963 achieving this. I believe there will be another 300 winner in baseball at some point but it will take skill, duration meaning staying injury free for the most part plus willing to pitch into their 40s and playing on a decent enough team(s).

So, between 1963 and 1982 no pitcher reached this milestone. I bet people were saying back then that the change to a five man rotation and the lowering of the mound killed any chance of another 300 game winner. And now we are looking at an even longer period without anyone reaching since 2009 so it looks even more unlikely to be achieved again. Because the next hopefuls are Kershaw and Baumgarner who, if they do reach 300 wins, it would probably be between the years 2029 and 2033 when both pitchers are in their 40's. Baseball fans will just have to wait again because these kinds of pitchers don't come along too often.

[madducks]

Upon further review, Verlander would have a slim chance if he averaged 13 wins per season over the next 10 years through age 43. Not likely, but possible.

And Felix Hernandez would have to do it for 12 more years through age 42.

I used 13 wins per season as i just don't see anyone averaging 15 wins per season over more than a 10 year stretch in the twilight of their career.

[Steve]

Not in a row.

[Lucky]

Upon further review, Verlander would have a slim chance if he averaged 13 wins per season over the next 10 years through age 43. Not likely, but possible.

And Felix Hernandez would have to do it for 12 more years through age 42.

I used 13 wins per season as i just don't see anyone averaging 15 wins per season over more than a 10 year stretch in the twilight of their career.

Verlander is done. Ms. Upton is sucking the life right out of him, figuratively of course.

[pitbull]

It's a very difficult accomplishment. Kershaw if he pitches another 12 yrs he'll be 40. He needs 175 wins to reach 300 which means he needs to average 14.5 wins per season. If he recovers from back problems and is still at the level he has been then he has a shot. But keep in mind he has the last 6 seasons (not including this season) 16.8 wins. If he can get another 85 wins before he turns 34 then he'll be 90 wins from 300. From that point he'll need to average 12.8 wins per season.

Bumgarner since 2011 has averaged 15.3 wins per season. He is 27 and if he goes another 13 yrs he'll need to average about the same to hit 300. This is taking in that he'll get a few more wins this season.

Interesting fact I read today Maddux was only a 20 games winner twice in his career. He did hit 19 wins 5 times and had 17 straight seasons of 15-20 wins.