Maneuvering Keepers

[onejayhawk]

It's an annual rite in keeper leagues. I'm starting early.

16 team league that plays more like 18 teams. 464 players rostered, not counting DL.
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN.

Three required keepers (required = K or by option = draft round)

1B: Paul Goldschmidt K
2B: Robinson Cano K
SS: Aledmys Diaz 10
OF: Christian Yelich 6
OF: Max Kepler 20
OF: Yasmany Tomas 14

SP: Jose Fernandez K
SP: Carlos Carrasco 7
SP: Zack Wheeler 21
SP: Carlos Rodon 13
RP: Dellin Betances 5
RP: Kelvin Herrera 19

I have an option about the value of a redraft #75 pick. One or none of these:
Felix Hernadez
Andrew McCutchen
Jose Reyes
Ian Desmond

Other options will value between #170 and #270. These come with two or three additional years at increasing cost.
I highlighted a few. Pick up to five.

Lucas Giolito
Orlando Arcia
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Cheslor Cutbirth
Derek Dietrich
Ozhaino Albies
Sean Manaea
Juan Nicasio
Jim Johnson
Chad Green
Corey Knebel
Nate Jones

Thoughts?

J

[mjl]

For the up-to-five bunch, is there any cost to you? How deep is the league?

I'd probably keep Desmond or Cain, Giolito, Arcia, and Manaea. Maybe Knebel if he has any interesting news before the season starts. Albies doesn't seem like he's going to be a huge offensive contributor, Cuthbert is getting lucky and will lose his position once Moustakas is healthy, who knows if Ryu will ever be healthy again, and Nate Jones I don't think there's any chance the White Sox move Robertson before midseason of next year at the earliest.

[onejayhawk]

Good questions. I added the information to the OP. The highset ranked player will cost about #180. The lowest ranked about #280.

Both Desmond and Cain over McCutchen? For reference, the picks from 2016 were Jordan Zimmerman, Danny Salazar, Jonathan Lucroy, or Evan Longoria depending on the exact finish.

J

[mjl]

I don't think you actually added anything to the OP.

You're already keeping a bunch of mostly-power hitters; I'd rather have someone who's likely to go 10/20 with upside than 20/10 with upside, and Cutch's AVG has really tanked this year. I guess Cain's HR and SB are both down kind of significantly from last year, and who knows if Desmond will keep it up, but Desmond's numbers are pretty much in line with his totals for his last five seasons other than the most recent. I guess I might not keep Cain over Cutch but it'd be close. I think Desmond is better than them right now though.

[onejayhawk]

It seems the save didn't take. It's up now.

I am thinking seriously of keeping the option pick instead of the "pick one". Felix Hernandez might be healthy enough by then.

Otherwise, I was leaning the same way, Giolito, Arcia, and Manaea, with the relievers depending on the closer gig. About Cutbirth I am on the fence. I agree with everything you said, but 3B are hard to find and he hits. The team will find a way to play him. Another option is to pick up Brandon Drury to save. He will play and he's 2B/3B next season. Ryon Healy is also on WW.

I updated the OP with some potential SP or closers.

J

[onejayhawk]

I updated the first post quite a bit. At this points, no adds can be kept for next year, so this is a final list.

A couple of points:
* This is a BA league AND an OBA league.
* Quality SP is hard. Usable SP not so much.
* The guy with the best record is throwing SP/RP relievers as SP a lot.
* If I use the one-or-none option, my first pick will be worth about #150
* Dietrich (Mr. HBP) will rate 1B/2B/3B/OF. This year 3B was the most in-demand position.

J