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Move to win it.

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  • #1

    Move to win it.

    So as you know, I sit in 2nd in my staff league.

    I have said all along I was trying to hold onto second, that's not true--I'm in it to win it.

    I just dealt

    C mart at $4b (he must be extended), Villar at $10a, Soler, A russell and schwarber and my 3rd for

    Marte, Scherzer, Fraizer and Cruz all on expiring contracts.

    J reyes takes over at SS moving from 3rd. Cruz and Marte join my OF, McCutchen, M Upton and Cespedes.

    I also have Kang, choo, Belt, J Harrison and Inciarte on the bench.

    I need one more starter, but that's a slam dunk.

    Thoughts on the trade?
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
    Martin Luther King, Jr.
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  • #2
    Dunno. Not sure it's a big win. Villar and Marte are a wash in SB. Scherzer is an upgrade over CMart, but not as much as you might think. Frazier is a BA drag. Power upgraded though.

    All in, an upgrade but not clear how much. Go all in though!

    Comment

    • #3
      Originally posted by Sharky View Post
      Dunno. Not sure it's a big win. Villar and Marte are a wash in SB. Scherzer is an upgrade over CMart, but not as much as you might think. Frazier is a BA drag. Power upgraded though.

      All in, an upgrade but not clear how much. Go all in though!
      I assumed it was a slight upgrade, might get me 10 points, but what it does is deprive my competitors of adding any of these guys.

      I should win most of the offensive cats, save avg which I should me middle of the pack, but it also leaves me with almost 20 in cap space allowing me to add a closer or starter which I'll need. I'm currently second to last in wins, but lead in the top 2 of era, whip and Ks. Wins will come and I'll inch closer, give Ken a run for his money..

      Plus if Villar regresses which he might, Marte is solid. I won't lose ground for riding a fading horse.
      If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

      Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
      Martin Luther King, Jr.

      Comment

      • #4
        Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
        I assumed it was a slight upgrade, might get me 10 points, but what it does is deprive my competitors of adding any of these guys.

        I should win most of the offensive cats, save avg which I should me middle of the pack, but it also leaves me with almost 20 in cap space allowing me to add a closer or starter which I'll need. I'm currently second to last in wins, but lead in the top 2 of era, whip and Ks. Wins will come and I'll inch closer, give Ken a run for his money..

        Plus if Villar regresses which he might, Marte is solid. I won't lose ground for riding a fading horse.
        Not so sure about you winning most of the offensive categories. I have you winning only HR and SB. My projections show that I still have you on offense overall, by a point. And 12 points on the pitching side. Projected finish is 129.5 to 116.5 after the new rosters are set.

        And those are aggressive projections for you b/c they assume you can start those shiny new toys tomorrow, whereas in reality they have to wait until next week to go in your lineup. That is actually significant at this point in the season (a week is 9% of the remaining season) And that's also before I get Greinke and Hill back from injury.

        We'll see. I think I still have you by a decent margin but it's certainly closer.

        Now that you've shot your wad (just $17 left vs the cap) I know basically what I have to beat - that helps me out. My $78 of cap space allows for a few moves if I need them.

        I find the Villar/Marte comparison similar to Myers / Trout. Wondering why you went for the solid option in that case (Marte over Villar), but not the same move for Trout/Myers. Trout helping me out tonight!

        Either way, good luck!

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        • #5
          If I can get Greinke and Hill back, projections show a 20 point lead still. Crossing my fingers!

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          • #6
            I'm playing a hunch.

            There's no analytics for that.
            If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

            Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
            Martin Luther King, Jr.

            Comment

            • #7
              Analysis shows that playing hunches in fantasy baseball works out 22% of the time.

              It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
                I'm playing a hunch.

                There's no analytics for that.
                There's analytics for everything.

                Your hunch is just that the numbers are wrong or will change. And that's a fair position to take. Just as I don't think the guy in last place a league has any chance to win at this point (based on experience and analytics), I suspect that a 30 point lead is too much to overcome this late in the season but maybe your hunch is right! It is improbable but far from impossible.

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