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Adam Duvall...ROS and then some

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  • #1

    Adam Duvall...ROS and then some

    Thoughts on his meteoric rise this year? Any chance he continues and hits 40 HR? Or is he a half season fluke who falls flat in the second half?

    I have him as a $1 keeper for 2017 and am torn on what to do with him. Trade him for a hitter with a better track record?

    How about a dead contract Springer for Duvall?
    "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."
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  • #2
    His minor league numbers show that his power is legit, though I would not have expected more than ~35 HRs in a season (two 30 HR seasons, one 27 HR season in the minors). His HR rate is starting to slow down (2 HR over his last 18 games), but 40 HRs might happen if he gets hot again. I really don't see him being more than a Rob Deer type hitter in future years (bad BA, some walks, 25-35 HRs a year, lots of Ks).

    Some MLB managers are OK with starting guys of that type, some aren't, so future playing time beyond 2016 is not guaranteed IMHO. I would certainly shop him around, but be OK with keeping him if I can't get decent value back (especially with a $1 price in 2017).

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    • #3
      I wasn't the first one to make this comp, but value-wise, think of him as Ludwick 2.0. He'll give some impressive power numbers, take some walks, and have widely volatile AVGs from year to year. (Ludwick's AVG 2007-2009: .267>.299>.265) For those of us who got him cheap in 2007 probably rode that 2008 line (.375 OBP, 37 HRs, 113 RBI, 104 r) to a title, but we also saw how players like this often have short peaks and disappear relatively quickly. But peaks are peaks, and if we're seeing the beginning of a three-four year peak for Duvall, ride it.

      I have two shares of Duvall and I wish I had more. I'm buying.

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      • #4
        I am not trading a $1 Duvall for a half a season of Springer.

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        • #5
          I'd keep Duvall. His BABIP indicates .240 is his floor, with normalization to a .290-.300 BABIP, he has .260-.270 capability. His ISO is really high, so the power is legit. And he plays in Cincinnati. And if your league has a 10 game eligibility rule, he will very likely be 1B/OF qualified.

          For a buck in your league, I keep him in a minute over a half season of Springer.
          I'm just here for the baseball.

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          • #6
            Thanks guys.
            "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

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            • #7
              Players like him are always iffy but no doubt about his power. If the the Reds move Bruce I can see Duval continuing to get regular ABs for next season. Long-term success will depend on his contact ratio. Current contact is 69% and his minors show about an average around 77-78%. If he can improve on that then it bodes well if he can't then it depends on the manager willing to live with that. Just compare him to Chris Carter although Duval makes better contact so better BA.

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