Baseball America top 100 midseason list

[fuhrdog]

Hader sure made a jump.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/?_wcsid=0686F1E2F48D41C0AB74003610640D7639E10B01CDD5B031#JLtZ16tCv4fObDkB.97

[fuhrdog]

Baseball Prospectus Midseason Top 50 Dynasty League prospects

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29767

[Sour Masher]

Guys I've followed and picked up prior to these lists coming out: Tyler O'Neill, Phil Bickford, Eloy Jimenez, Mitch Keller, Harrison Bader, Mike Soroka, and Yohander Mendez. Happy to see the love on these previously hidden gems. But overall, BAs list is still too conservative for my taste. They were too cautious in dropping down guys showing regression this year. Some guys like Arcia and Brinson have excuses for their poor performances (aggressive promotion a d possible injury in their cases), but others like Mateo and Newcomb have serious flaws and will likely fall a good bit by year's end. Mateo's speed still makes him enticing for us, but I am shocked BA ranked him thatnigh on a real prospect list. Newcomb is another guy repeating a level and looking worse while doing it.

Aside from 2016 draftees and international signees, the one guy I'd bank on making these lists by the start of next year is Dylan Cozens. His k rate is high, but he has been a monster power and speed guy. Could end up being a 40/25 guy in AA this year,and just turned 22 recently. The speed won't last as he advances-- he is a big dude. But the power is legit, and his hit tool is solid.

[overkill94]

Cozens's teammate in Reading is also tearing it up - Rhys Hoskins, with just as much power but with a lower K rate and better home/road splits (Cozens has done most of his damage in his launching pad home park). Neither guy offers much defensive value but can both play a corner outfield spot - which is why they don't get any prospect love - but they should get promoted to AAA soon and might even get a look in September.

[Sour Masher]

Cozens's teammate in Reading is also tearing it up - Rhys Hoskins, with just as much power but with a lower K rate and better home/road splits (Cozens has done most of his damage in his launching pad home park). Neither guy offers Yeah, much defensive value but can both play a corner outfield spot - which is why they don't get any prospect love - but they should get promoted to AAA soon and might even get a look in September.

Of the two, Hoskins is more likely the fools gold. He is a year older and the less athletic of the two, and likely a 1b only guy. But you are right, we need to see what they do in AAA. They both might be fools gold. hell, maybe both have found the same "trainer" if one was ts to get cynical.

[Sour Masher]

Good list, content-wise, but seems like it was written by a child.


"The strong average let’s the rest of the offensive package play up a la Francisco Lindor"

Yeesh.

I thought you were going to reference, "stolen bases are still a category, yo" which is both what a generic 90s kid would say and makes zero sense as a downside for Raul Mondesi whose main skill is speed.

[heyelander]

Of the two, Hoskins is more likely the fools gold. He is a year older and the less athletic of the two, and likely a 1b only guy. But you are right, we need to see what they do in AAA. They both might be fools gold. hell, maybe both have found the same "trainer" if one was ts to get cynical.

Cozen's splits are scary.

vs Left REA - 70 .186 .284 .357 .641
vs Right REA - 259 .313 .397 .653 1.050

He's left handed so at least he's on the better side of a platoon, but I'm tentative going forward.

Reading is a great hitters park too... This is the park that gave us the nickname Babe Ruff when Darren Ruff hit 38 HRs (with 20 of them coming seemingly in the last 3 weeks of the season).

Home Games REA 43 162 .315 .407 .802 1.210
Away Games REA 42 167 .257 .339 .383 .722

Matt Winkleman at PhilliesMinorLeague thoughts has always been suspect of Cozens, and while he's coming around a little bit, still doesn't have him in the Phillies top 10 (which admittedly is pretty good these days).

Here's his mid season write-up where Cozens came in under the heading UP:

http://philliesminorthoughts.com/midseason-update-hitters-up-down-and-inbetween/

Dylan Cozens, OF

.279/.361/.566 19 2B 19 HR 13 SB

I have long been the low man on Dylan Cozens because I don’t really believe in his ability to hit vs premium pitching. This adjustment is a reflection of the improvements that Cozens has made this year. Cozens has big raw power, he leads the minors in home runs, and big swing and miss. Cozens has gotten more limber and athletic, which will help him to adjust, but he still needs to make those adjustments. Right now he has huge home/road splits and huge right/left splits. Cozens won’t make my top 10, he won’t necessarily make my top 15, but he has moved up for me this year.

Here's the summation of an article he wrote on Cozens earlier in the year (the UP would be from this assessment I guess) There's a good bit of Pro and Con evaluation before this summation in the article:

http://philliesminorthoughts.com/arguing-with-myself-dylan-cozens/

So what do we have here.

Ultra Optimistic: Plus to plus plus power and average hit with passable right field defense, he will strikeout a fair amount but that is a borderline 1st division regular.

Optimistic: Above average to plus power with a fringe average hit tool, passable left fielder, he strikes out a lot and walks less than you would. This profile is a fringe regular or good platoon half.

Realistic: Below average hit tool, with above average power, near unplayable against LHPs, and he can fake RF/LF/1B. Given the lack of power in baseball, this is a profile that can help Cozens carve out a career on a major league bench for a good amount of time.

Likely: Cozens never figures out advanced breaking balls and never reaches the majors.

This all sounds morose, but in reality this is the life of non-elite prospects. Some make the adjustments and succeed and other flameout before the majors. I do think I am a bit harsh on Cozens focusing mostly on the realistic and likely scenarios as opposed to the optimistic that I do with most players. It is certainly part of the negativity described at the top of this post, it is a hard thing to keep objective across all players and let the analysis truly do the talking.

[Sour Masher]

Thanks for the insights heyelander, I hadn't looked at Cozens' splits, and I hadn't heard Babe Ruff--that a funny one, and something to keep in mind with hitters playing in Reading. I have a tendency to scout the stat line, and rely on my amateurish eye just watching YouTube videos of guys. It's good to have these sorts of correctives, and it explains why he isn't anywhere close to any top 100 lists right now, despite his video game numbers, age relative to competition, and overall athleticism.

Maybe someone can help me for guys on the opposite end of the spectrum, like Sean Newcomb. What is there beyond the crappy stats to indicate he is still a top 50 prospect? His era is close to 5, he has walked 48 in 83 innings, he is getting worse as the year progresses, and watching him, despite what seems like a simple delivery, he seems to have trouble being consistent with it.

I ask, because guys with crap stat lines but still high rankings that seem to be hold overs from previous showings at lower levels are always guys I try to trade away. Most of the time I am right to do that, but once in awhile, I'm very wrong on those guys. Matt Harvey comes to mind as a guy that I didn't believe in based on mediocre minor league numbers. But before his recent horrible injury, he was so, so, so much better than I thought he'd be, and may scouts saw that despite his crappy numbers. Is Newcomb another Harvey, or a Harvey light? A guy that has the skills to outperform his numbers to date? He sure doesn't look like that to me, but then again he is still #33 on BAs list, so I probably am missing something.

[heyelander]

I can't speak to Newcomb specifically, but MiLB pitchers are different than hitters. Hitters just hit. They might be making adjustments or trying new things, trying to see more pitches, trying to be more aggressive, but for the most part, they are hitting. When pitchers are trying new things, or working on something specific (trying to pitch to more contact, trying to develop a new pitch, trying to rely on a pitch that isn't their best or whatnot) the results can look really ugly. The walks are red flags, but I wouldn't worry about ERA at all.

edit:
Just looked Newcomb up. The 2015 stats were very good. 2016 is all AA so far which is a big jump. It's only his 3rd year in the minors so there's still time to learn consistency. Here's one scouting report I found:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/11/11/9715764/atlanta-braves-top-20-prospects-for-2016

Easy heat in low/mid-90s with peaks at 98, plus curveball, change-up needs work but is improving, stuff in general is usually overpowering. Needs tighter command, potential top of rotation arm if he gets it.

Left hander with a mid-90s FB another plus pitch and a developing third is a guy with potential #1 stuff. That's going to get you into the top 50 easy. Even if he doesn't ever make it as a SP, that's a high leverage RP. No idea how much of this year's struggles are based on working on that developing change-up.