Bumgarner Trade?

[Batteredballs]

Dynasty keep forever league with a 20 player minor league roster. What are your thoughts on this trade:


My - Amir Garret, Jose De Leon, Miguel Castro and Matt Wisler for:


His - M. Bumgarner


I need SP help now and still have decent options on my minor leagur roster (Giolito, Tate, Guerrieri, Mella, Kopech , Cease and Norris).


Thanks.

[revo]

If I could keep Bumgarner forever I'd want a heck of a lot more than just a few dart throws.

[fuhrdog]

If I could keep Bumgarner forever I'd want a heck of a lot more than just a few dart throws.

Trade is not even close, I'd love to hear who the other 3 guys are that probably have to be dropped to take on a 4 for 1.

[DMT]

Yea, no chance I'd give up Bumgarner for that.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, me neither. Garrett and DeLeon are nice lottery tickets. I don't know how deep your league is, but since you list AL minor leaguers, I'm assuming it is mixed. Unless it is a 20 teamers, Wisler and Castro are probably not much better than who he'd have to drop or who he could snag easily without giving up Bumgarner.

If you really want to pull off a deal for help now, you may have to aim lower/older than Bumgarner, like a Rich Hill for like Wisler and Castro, if you can pull that off (sell him on Hill being old and fragile, which are both true, but you aren't giving a lot to get him). Or, go all out, and offer Giolito for Bumgarner. In a dynasty, the other guy would probably have to bite on that. On your end, I recognize Giolito has tremendous upside and is younger (I am all in on him myself), but Bumgarner is only 26 himself and a proven commodity.

[DMT]

Exactly. IMO there aren't too many players in a dynasty league that are more valuable than Mad Bum.

[revo]

Yeah, me neither. Garrett and DeLeon are nice lottery tickets. I don't know how deep your league is, but since you list AL minor leaguers, I'm assuming it is mixed. Unless it is a 20 teamers, Wisler and Castro are probably not much better than who he'd have to drop or who he could snag easily without giving up Bumgarner.

If you really want to pull off a deal for help now, you may have to aim lower/older than Bumgarner, like a Rich Hill for like Wisler and Castro, if you can pull that off (sell him on Hill being old and fragile, which are both true, but you aren't giving a lot to get him). Or, go all out, and offer Giolito for Bumgarner. In a dynasty, the other guy would probably have to bite on that. On your end, I recognize Giolito has tremendous upside and is younger (I am all in on him myself), but Bumgarner is only 26 himself and a proven commodity.

But why? Bumgarner is an elite ace who's just 26 and vies for the Cy Young every year; Giolito has a 4.25 ERA in Double-A. If you could keep Bumgarner for the rest of his career with no penalty, or Giolito for the rest of his career with no penalty, why would anyone take Giolito? The risk of taking Giolito over Bumgarner in this format is tremendous.

I'm sorry, if both have no penalty to keep and no cap on the amount of years left as a keeper, I'd need three or four Giolitos for Bumgarner.

[Andrewski]

Agree with Revo If everything goes well for Giolito, he becomes.....Bumgarner. Id rather have a guaranteed Bumgarner than a maybe Bumgarner.

But why? Bumgarner is an elite ace who's just 26 and vies for the Cy Young every year; Giolito has a 4.25 ERA in Double-A. If you could keep Bumgarner for the rest of his career with no penalty, or Giolito for the rest of his career with no penalty, why would anyone take Giolito? The risk of taking Giolito over Bumgarner in this format is tremendous.

I'm sorry, if both have no penalty to keep and no cap on the amount of years left as a keeper, I'd need three or four Giolitos for Bumgarner.

[Hornsby]

But why? Bumgarner is an elite ace who's just 26 and vies for the Cy Young every year; Giolito has a 4.25 ERA in Double-A. If you could keep Bumgarner for the rest of his career with no penalty, or Giolito for the rest of his career with no penalty, why would anyone take Giolito? The risk of taking Giolito over Bumgarner in this format is tremendous.

I'm sorry, if both have no penalty to keep and no cap on the amount of years left as a keeper, I'd need three or four Giolitos for Bumgarner.

No, Giolito has a 2.64 ERA in AA ball, and K'd 12 in his last start. it seems to be his MO, slow start to the season, adapt, then dominate.

I think that sooner or later, MadBum gets injured...the guy has 1257 innings pitched, not counting pre and post season. It's a workload that most can handle...maybe he's one of the rare ones. I think that it's lot closer than you think, and I don't see Giolito getting to the majors this season.

[Sour Masher]

No, Giolito has a 2.64 ERA in AA ball, and K'd 12 in his last start. it seems to be his MO, slow start to the season, adapt, then dominate.

I think that sooner or later, MadBum gets injured...the guy has 1257 innings pitched, not counting pre and post season. It's a workload that most can handle...maybe he's one of the rare ones. I think that it's lot closer than you think, and I don't see Giolito getting to the majors this season.

Yes, this is exactly my thinking on why someone would make the deal. Bumgarner is only 4 years older than Giolito, but Giolito has been handled with extreme care every since his TJ, and has way less milage than Bungarner. It likely won't happen any time soon, but precedents say it is very likely Bumgarner burns out at some point in the next few years a la Sabathia and many others who threw a ton of innings young.

Also, I've watched Giolito since he was in high school. Of course, TINSTAAPP, but Giolito has a very high chance of being very very good. Of course, on the other hand, Bumgarner is great now, so it makes sense for him to make that deal. It is one of those deals I could see both sides saying yes to and both sides saying no too. Considering the first offer put forth, I suspect the OP won't want to trade Giolito. But of the players he mentioned, Giolito is the only one I'd consider trading Bumgarner for. I'd much prefer Giolito on his own that all the other guys mentioned combined.

[revo]

Yeah, the 4.25 was the rAvg, so apologies on the error.

Still, it's not close IMO. Time Value of Money. One in the hand vs. two in the bush. TINSTAAP. Whatever you want to call it, one guy's a major league ace, the other guy's an ace at AA. And that's a massive difference.

[madducks]

Bumgarner.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, the 4.25 was the rAvg, so apologies on the error.

Still, it's not close IMO. Time Value of Money. One in the hand vs. two in the bush. TINSTAAP. Whatever you want to call it, one guy's a major league ace, the other guy's an ace at AA. And that's a massive difference.

But in the context of the OP's team and desire to trade for Bumgarner, you agree that the only way to make that happen would be to put Giolito on the table, right? That is why I brought him up--the other guys, even all of them combined, are not enough to get it done. Of course, the other guy might not trade Bumgarner at all, and he may be right, but there is no way he'll get him if Giolito is offered imo.

[revo]

But in the context of the OP's team and desire to trade for Bumgarner, you agree that the only way to make that happen would be to put Giolito on the table, right? That is why I brought him up--the other guys, even all of them combined, are not enough to get it done. Of course, the other guy might not trade Bumgarner at all, and he may be right, but there is no way he'll get him if Giolito is offered imo.

It's a forever keeper format, and he didn't list anyone on his active roster nor any of his ML hitters. If I'm trading Bumgarner in this format, there's no way I'm not asking for some major league talent (primarily hitters) and/or top ML bats.

[chancellor]

It's a forever keeper format, and he didn't list anyone on his active roster nor any of his ML hitters. If I'm trading Bumgarner in this format, there's no way I'm not asking for some major league talent (primarily hitters) and/or top ML bats.

This. In a forever keep league, at a minimum I'm getting one very, very good MLB piece and some great, great prospects for MadBum.