Prince Fielder: Buy Low or End of the Road?

[revo]

I just read an article saying that Fielder is the worst regular in the AL -- and as a Fielder owner, I believe it! I've benched him the last few weeks, and he's just not showing anything. But if the end is nigh, it was a cliff he fell over as he hit .305/.378/.463 last season: not 2007-2009 Fielder, but as solid player who had a great BA. Now he's at .193/.269/.281 and seems like a shell of his last year's self.

And he's still one game shy of 3-game eligibility at 1B, and the Rangers don't play an away interleague game until mid-June.

If you are a Fielder owner, what are you doing (besides praying)?

[chancellor]

The parallels to his dad in terms of production is almost frightening:

Cecil, age 32 .252/.350/.484 85-39-127
Cecil, age 33 .269/.358/.410 40-13-61 and out of the league soon after

Prince, age 31 .305/.378/.463 78-23-98
Prince, age 32 - stats are so bad that the mods have labeled them obscene content.

I'd be selling, even low, since I don't think genetics will be denied,

[Hammer]

its so haaaard to say goodbye to yesterdaaaaay......


He is toast

[revo]

its so haaaard to say goodbye to yesterdaaaaay......


He is toast

Well, this post gives me some hope!

[Sour Masher]

I can't help but beat the dead horse that is to marvel at how horrible his contract was, even at the time. I think he makes so much he will keep getting opportunities, and still has enough skill to be better than he is right now, at least for small stretches. But that isn't saying much. He is done in terms of being a premier player. He looks totally lost at the plate.

[SlideRule]

Crying, drinking, muttering, cursing, regretting.....

Well to be honest I knew he was bad, but I've been too busy worrying about the other trash on my team to realize HOW bad (Richards, Doolittle, Tolleson, Storen, J Upton, Dozier, Yan Gomes, Luis Severino...

Needless to say this is not looking like a great year for my team.

[revo]

Same for me. I have been so, so wrong about so, so many players this year. I, too, thought Fielder would at least be adequate. I wasn't expecting a star but I was at least expecting a starter. I mean, damn, his numbers were good last year and didn't seem to be unsupported by crazy luck or anything.

If it makes you feel better, I took Fielder five spots before Ortiz went.

[joncarlos]

Hits in 4 straight games including a BOMB of a HR on Sunday. Maybe not dead after all?

[onejayhawk]

It's 10 of 12, but only one game with two hits (none more). Still, .250 full of singles is better than the 0-6 he had last Thursday.

J

[Hornsby]

I watched him a good bit this past weekend, and he swung with all his might, and barely got the ball to the warning track. He just looks cooked...

[BuckyBuckner]

Same for me. I have been so, so wrong about so, so many players this year. I, too, thought Fielder would at least be adequate. I wasn't expecting a star but I was at least expecting a starter. I mean, damn, his numbers were good last year and didn't seem to be unsupported by crazy luck or anything.

Actually his numbers did support a fall off. His slash line in the first half was 339/403/521, with a .350 BABIP while his second half was 264/348/394, with a .290 BABIP. Clearly, the .350 BABIP in the first half fueled the high batting average. But that .394 SLG in the second half had me very worried.

[Hornsby]

Well, one of his mighty swings did result in a home run. It wasn't a behemoth but it was certainly beyond the warning track.

Blind squirrel, meet acorn.

[BuckyBuckner]

BABIP shouldn't affect slugging in that way, though, should it? His batting average regressed to the mean, as could be anticipated. Good point about the second half. Still, his numbers overall were well supported by the peripherals pretty much across the board. I think it's pretty reasonable to have looked at his moderate production last year as well as the underlying rate stats and said "he's no longer elite but he's rosterable." Of course, 20-20 hindsight precludes that thought.

Steamer projected Fielder to hit 23 HRs and bat .291. Perhaps some of you more astute owners had your own more reliable projections, but his numbers indicated a relatively reliable player, if unexciting, going forward and not a total train wreck.

In fact, the amalgamation of seven different projection systems (https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/projections/1b.php) for Fielder put him at 21 HR and a .287 BA. That's about where I thought he'd land.

I guess you are right that slugging and BABIP aren't really tied together since HRs are not part of BABIP. I remember looking at this numbers and noticing that the .350 BABIP in the first half was way higher than his normal career numbers while the .290 was closer to his career numbers. So what I'm getting at is that while his 2015 season numbers were close to career norms they were driven up by a first half BABIP that was not the norm. I'm not saying I predicted this much of a drop off but the signs were there. I drafted him last year at $28 in my 12 team AL league and through June I thought I had a nice keeper. By the end of the year I had someone I wanted to trade. I wasn't able to find someone to take him and he went for $23 this year.

[revo]

Glimmer of hope for Fielder owners? http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/eig...ng-their-xoba/

I'm not amused that three of them (Prince, Kendrick, Plouffe) were or are on my team! Kendrick, for his sake, is bouncing back already.

I read this article this past weekend, and thought about making a play to the Kendrys owner in the hopes that Prince also gets his 3rd game at 1B, but I'm not sure I can take two of these yutzes.