Trade Opinion

[umjewman]

10 team, NL-Only, 5x5.

Does anyone think that Harvey is really going to turn it around? I'm a Mets fan and sure am hoping so, but he looks like an absolute train wreck right now. Fastball not as fast as last year, breaking pitches not as crisp, and it seems like he's getting some bad luck on top of pitching like trash.

That being said, I was offered an expiring Harvey and a $16 Jake McGee for a $5, due extension, Aaron Nola. I never want to chase saves, but they could be useful and worth around three points looking at the current standings.

My hitting has been pretty decent, but my pitching could use some help. Right now, I've got Jose Fernandez, Nola, Gio Gonzalez, Alex Wood, Chad Bettis, Brad Ziegler, Kevin Siegrist, Hector Neris, David Hernandez, with a whole lot of either injured or disappointing starters sitting on my bench (Cashner, Aaron Blair, Jorge de la Rosa, Homer Bailey, Brandon McCarthy) as well as Glasnow in the minors who could get a call up.

Trade probably hinges on the confidence in Harvey turning it around. So what say the pen? Confident in him turning it around? Lost cause?

[chancellor]

I'm not highly confident Harvey turns it around, say 50/50, and I would still make the deal.

Logic: Downside is Harvey stays bad, but you get closer help with McGee, and it's an almost certainty at this point Glasnow gets the call once Suoer 2 passes. McGee bolsters your saves, and provides insurance if Ziegler tanks. You have no long term tie to Harvey, so you're not hurt next year. Downside is you're slightly on the losing end of this deal.

Upside: Harvey gets his mechanics figured out, turns back into a quality starter, and McGee gets you extra points in saves. Glasnow comes up and further bolsters your rotation. Upside is a pretty big win for you.

[revo]

I'm not highly confident Harvey turns it around, say 50/50, and I would still make the deal.

Logic: Downside is Harvey stays bad, but you get closer help with McGee, and it's an almost certainty at this point Glasnow gets the call once Suoer 2 passes. McGee bolsters your saves, and provides insurance if Ziegler tanks. You have no long term tie to Harvey, so you're not hurt next year. Downside is you're slightly on the losing end of this deal.

Upside: Harvey gets his mechanics figured out, turns back into a quality starter, and McGee gets you extra points in saves. Glasnow comes up and further bolsters your rotation. Upside is a pretty big win for you.

Agreed. Do the deal.

[Mithrandir]

3 votes to make the deal.

[Ken]

Seems like Harvey has been especially unlucky to this point - his FIP is two runs lower than his ERA.

FIP is one of my favorite stats to look at, but one thing to watch out for, FIP assumes all non-HR contact is the same. In Harvey's case, last night when I was watching the game he was getting hit HARD. Every batted ball was smoked. Like you mentioned his fastball is down a couple mph this year, and last night everything was in the center of the plate.

Looking at the batted ball data, he's giving up 29% line drives, which is 9% over his career average. And he's getting hit hard 30% of the time, vs 27% on his career.

Something is off. Last night he was visibly shaken, after he got hit hard a few times he lost his confidence completely, and the flood gates opened.

That said, even at a couple mph down he's still sitting ~95, so if he can fix the command problem and trust his stuff, he has a chance to turn it around.