Sell-high candidates

[DMT]

Figured we should have a complement to the buy-low thread. But I generally find it more difficult to sell high than buy low. Here are some:

Mark Trumbo
Ian Desmond
Nick Castellanos
Vincent Velasquez
Rich Hill
Rick Porcello
Jeanmar Gomez

[revo]

Aledmys Diaz
Jonathan Villar
Jean Segura
Chris Tillman
Josh Tomlin
Jeremy Hellickson

[TranaGreg]

But I generally find it more difficult to sell high than buy low.

for sure.

I might question Velasquez - he was pretty studly in the minors, I'd need a lot in return to trade him. And while Villar is, well, Villar, if he continues to get playing time he could keep his current pace up.

I'd add Chris Carter to this list.

[Controller Jacobs]

I'd hold Castellanos in keeper leagues. He avg and obp may be due for a dive but he was a top-50 prospect for years.

...

Baltimore has played 25 home games vs 14 road games. AL East has other hitter's parks, but last year Baltimore was one of the top 5 teams in home OPS, bottom 5 in road OPS.

...

Marcus Semien, Danny Valencia and Khris Davis have combined for 5 doubles, 2 triples and 28 hrs. Most extreme hr/xbh hitters in 2015 were about .67 hr/xbh, and the AL West has pitchers' parks, especially Oakland (fourth lowest hr park factor in 2015).

[DMT]

I have Castellanos-1A and Velasquez-2A and will expect a huge return for either. I've already reached out to bottom two teams.

[Ken]

for sure.

I might question Velasquez - he was pretty studly in the minors, I'd need a lot in return to trade him. And while Villar is, well, Villar, if he continues to get playing time he could keep his current pace up.

I'd add Chris Carter to this list.

I am curious to hear thoughts on this -- how many innings do you think Velasquez pitches this year

[TranaGreg]

I am curious to hear thoughts on this -- how many innings do you think Velasquez pitches this year

that's a good point - I was looking at it more from the performance perspective (who is playing over their heads & is likely to regress) ... the Phillies aren't playing for anything this year so they won't push him ... the most IP he's had was back in 2013 when he threw 124; with his 48 IP so far he likely won't throw more than another 100* or so.

* - completely unscientific estimate.

having said that I'd still want him for next year & beyond (assuming a keeper league).

[heyelander]

the Phillies aren't playing for anything this year so they won't push him

In case you missed it, the Phillies are only a game back in the NL East and are currently the #1 Wildcard with the third best record in the NL.

[Ken]

that's a good point - I was looking at it more from the performance perspective (who is playing over their heads & is likely to regress) ... the Phillies aren't playing for anything this year so they won't push him ... the most IP he's had was back in 2013 when he threw 124; with his 48 IP so far he likely won't throw more than another 100* or so.

* - completely unscientific estimate.

having said that I'd still want him for next year & beyond (assuming a keeper league).

That would put him at 148 IP, which is 63 IP more than last year.

Even a 63 IP jump is at the top end.

I just looked at year over year stats for all 1420 pitchers who have pitched in the mlb between 2011 and 2015. I compared their mlb IP to their (mlb + minors) IP the year before. Of the 7100 comparisons, only 71 (1%) include jumps of > 63 IP. And most of those are established starters who missed most of the previous year due to injury (ala Johnny Cueto 2013, Joe Blanton 2014).

The one outlier was Chris Sale who went from 71 combined innings in 2011 to 192 innings in 2012 when he switched to a starter. Hopefully VV can do the same, but the odds suggest it is very unlikely.

Also, looking at the top of this list makes you not want to do that to a pitcher, lots of injuries (Josh Johnson, Brett Anderson, Bedard, McCarthy, etc):

Johnny Cueto
Joe Blanton
Colby Lewis
Jorge de la Rosa
Kris Medlen
Nate Karns
Mike Pelfrey
Josh Johnson
Chris Young
Brett Anderson
Drew Hutchison
Brad Penny
Chris Sale
Clayton Richard
Erik Bedard
CC Sabathia
Stephen Strasburg
Carlos Rodon
Brandon McCarthy
Roberto Hernandez
Johan Santana
Alfredo Simon
Clay Buchholz
Andrew Cashner
Jhoulys Chacin
Phil Hughes
Matt Harrison
Juan Nicasio
Alexi Ogando
Vidal Nuno
Franklin Morales
Hisashi Iwakuma
Andy Pettitte
Barry Zito
Jordan Zimmermann
Alfredo Aceves
Luke Hochevar
Dillon Gee


** note that I also did not include college stats, so guys like Rodon show up who went to the MLB the year after being drafted.

[DMT]

That would put him at 148 IP, which is 63 IP more than last year.

Even a 63 IP jump is at the top end.

I just looked at year over year stats for all 1420 pitchers who have pitched in the mlb between 2011 and 2015. I compared their mlb IP to their (mlb + minors) IP the year before. Of the 7100 comparisons, only 71 (1%) include jumps of > 63 IP. And most of those are established starters who missed most of the previous year due to injury (ala Johnny Cueto 2013, Joe Blanton 2014).

The one outlier was Chris Sale who went from 71 combined innings in 2011 to 192 innings in 2012 when he switched to a starter. Hopefully VV can do the same, but the odds suggest it is very unlikely...

More excellent work!

[Controller Jacobs]

Interesting. I'd sell high on Castellanos, although I'm dubious that he'd garner or deserve a big return, because he's never really been that good a hitter despite his high prospect ranking. I mean, his BABIP is .402 right now. I think he might be able to be a decent power, low everything else kind of guy going forward but nothing all that special.

But this year in particular, I have been so totally wrong on player evaluations that it's probably better to just do the opposite of everything I do or say.

The Wait for Nick Castellanos Will Soon Be Over
by Eno Sarris - November 4, 2015

[Ken]

The Wait for Nick Castellanos Will Soon Be Over
by Eno Sarris - November 4, 2015

I'm also very high on Castellanos. I targetted him heavily this offseason.

His 2016 performance may seem like an outlier, and the BABIP will definitely come down from .400 at some point. But it's not just 2016. He changed his approach mid 2015. If you go back to July 1 2015 here's what he's done.

In 431 AB, 19 HR 75 RBI, hitting .300/.341/.520

Projecting those 431 AB out to a full season gives you a 26 HR / 103 RBI power bat. I'll take it, and I think he's legit.

[revo]

Jim Bowden's been pimping Castellanos for months. Looks like he nailed one.

[cool hand]

The Wait for Nick Castellanos Will Soon Be Over
by Eno Sarris - November 4, 2015

I'm a believer as well. It's easy to forget that this kid just turned 24. He's always been expected to hit for average, and he has enough of a build to expect moderate power. FWIW, he looks noticeably quicker this year - seeing him leg out hits that would have been outs in the past. I expect he'll demolish his career high in steals.

[Sour Masher]

You all may be right about Castellanos in a keeper league, but in a redraft, he is the epitome of a sell high. He is hitting .350 and on pace for 32 homers and 119 rbi. The dude is going to regress a good bit the ROS. That said, there aren't a lot of 3bman currently behind him in production I'd be eager to buy low on in a 1 for 1 swap. Maybe Franco, but that is probably a lateral move for the ROS.

I also disagree on Desmond being a sell high. Unlike a lot of hot starts, his isn't fueled by a crazy .350 average. He probably won't end up hitting .274, but he is on pace for 23 homers, 96 rbis, and 31 steals. I think he can get fairly close to those numbers.