What's with the Phillies?

[onejayhawk]

24-17 but -28 on runs. The Mets are +30 and a game behind them.

Last year the Rangers were above .500 with a negative run differential, but this is the most pronounced I can remember. Does anyone know a good comp?

J

[heyelander]

Matt Winkelman over at philliesminorthoughts.com wrote about this last week in a piece titled The Phillies are “Built” to Win 1 Run Games. Note, each of the bullet points has a detailed explanation to it, but I don't want to quote the whole thing here.

http://philliesminorthoughts.com/the-phillies-are-built-to-win-1-run-games/

Much has been made of the Phillies’ record in 1 run games. The 11-3 mark has been pointed to as a mark for why the Phillies are sure to regress. But what if this is not a fluke, because 1 run games are an inherently narrow construct that fails to account for the circumstances that put a team in this situation. So let’s try and construct a team to win a large percentage of 1 run games. Take note that winning 1 run games is not a strategy for a good team, nor is it a strategy that a team should pursue.

Low run production or a bad offense
Great run prevention to keep you close in games, ideally keeping you up by a run or two
Good relievers to close out games you are leading
Not enough relievers to keep you in close games

So most of the phillies pitchers keep the score low, their offense can't hit so they don't score a lot either. When the phillies are ahead, the backend of the bullpen is good and holds onto the close wins, when they are behind the front end of their bullpen sucks so they tend to get blown out leading to the negative run differential.

[mjl]

The 2009 Mariners were 85-77 with a -52 differential.
The 2008 Astros were 86-75 with a -29 differential.
The 2007 Diamondbacks were 90-72 and won their division with a -20 differential.
The 1997 Giants were 90-72 and won their division with a -9 differential.
The 1964 Mets were 90-72 with a -24 differential.

[Erik]

Good pitching (usually), good defense, bad offense. Especially when the bullpen performs well as has been the case here, teams with this profile win close games and lose blowouts.

[Zupe]

The 1964 Mets were 90-72 with a -24 differential.

I'm guessing that's the '84 Mets, the 1964 Mets were 53-109