Chasing the Elusive Save....

[griswold]

So, as I struggle with getting saves early in the season, I wonder what the Junkies' take on saves....

So, I had Giles ($5) and Melancon ($6) headng into the PONY auction (15 team - mixed league) with ZERO intention of drafting a closer because I thought I was in good shape.

The season starts and Giles loses his job and now I only have 1 solid closer.

I'm constantly sending out Trade Block requests (but no one answers) and following the waiver wire for possible saves....but it's "exhausting".

So, my question is: Is it worth for just ONE stat basically?

I've heard of "punting saves" and I'm thinking it makes sense.

Anyone ever punt saves and win?

Thanks in advance.

Hey, just my needing "saved".

Gris

[joncarlos]

I'd love to trade with you... you want JJ Hoover? That's all I've got.

It's possible to win without saves but you need to be REALLY strong in other categories.

[griswold]

I'd love to trade with you... you want JJ Hoover? That's all I've got.

It's possible to win without saves but you need to be REALLY strong in other categories.

LOL...you're in even worse shape than I am at this point...

I just feel like it's worth paying for Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel or Wade Davis....am I wrong?

[joncarlos]

LOL...you're in even worse shape than I am at this point...

I just feel like it's worth paying for Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel or Wade Davis....am I wrong?

I think it is. I haven't pulled it off yet but I think the $40-$50 closers and cheap streaming SPs strategy is still very viable in a medium sized league.

[virgonomic]

I like to add a third speculative guy. Osuna/Storen, Gregerson, Jeffress, Benoit, Madson would have fit the bill. That gives you insurance if one of your guys struggles.

I do think Giles will get 20+ saves. HOU traded for him because they didn't fully believe in Gregerson. They could switch positions at some point.

Fortunately I drafted Greg as a handcuff to Giles in my 14 team mixed H2H and bought Gregerson for $7 in my 12 team AL league.

[griswold]

I like to add a third speculative guy. Osuna, Gregerson, Jeffress, Benoit, Madson would have fit the bill. That gives you insurance if one of your guys struggles.

I do think Giles will get 20+ saves. HOU traded for him because they didn't fully believe in Gregerson. They could switch positions at some point.

Fortunately I drafted Greg as a handcuff to Giles in my 12 team mixed and bought Gregerson for $7 in my AL league.

I was going to draft Gregerson in the reserve draft but someone else got to him first....I figured it was no big deal. Now that team won't even listen to offers for him (even though he has 4 closers)....lol

[griswold]

I think you're overreacting to early season volatility. You still have a great closer plus another guy who could be great plus weeks and weeks' worth of FAABs. No need to punt, which is a very difficult strategy to effectively pull off anyways.

Yeah, but we don't have FAAB, it's based on record (worst to first) each week....currently my team is in 4th overall....which is good.

But at what point will this bite me in the ass?

[Sour Masher]

Certainly not now and probably never.

Closers are the least valuable and most volatile commodities in fantasy baseball (well, except catchers perhaps). Investing heavily in them is a mistake, in my opinion. Just keep an eye on the waiver wire and ride Melancon, who's no slouch anyways.

That is generally true, but the overall volatility of the position makes those rare unicorns who do consistently produce excellent stats for several years in a row more valuable. Because of the volatility, it is certainly possible to be competitive in saves simply by working the waiver wire, obsessing over the many shaky bullpens out there, and filling reserve spots with speculative MRs. However, there is great comfort provided by having a rock you can count on at the RP position. Of course, there really aren't many of those around, and who knows when one will go down with an injury, although that is a concern for pitchers in general. But I think a star and scrubs approach to closers is generally the way to go, where you try to land one elite, reliable guy, but don't bother to spend on the mediocre guys who you are only counting on for saves, which may go away at any time.

[Erik]

We have one guy who punts saves every year, has never won, and hasn't finished in the money since 2000. Two years ago, he executed the strategy perfectly -- last in saves, first in wins, first in Ks -- and still finished out of the money.

It doesn't help, of course, that he never trades and rarely ever uses FAAB after the first bidding period, but it indicates to me that you have to be really attentive and good at in-season moves in order to pull it off.

Oddly, this year he bought two closers, by accident. He got caught bidding up Papelbon (exclaiming "Shit!" after the sale was announced) and then decided to bid on and bid up every subsequent closer thrown out, eventually getting Cody Allen for 1 unit less than what I had paid for Kimbrel early in the auction. And right now, he's in first place.

[griswold]

Certainly not now and probably never.

Closers are the least valuable and most volatile commodities in fantasy baseball (well, except catchers perhaps). Investing heavily in them is a mistake, in my opinion. Just keep an eye on the waiver wire and ride Melancon, who's no slouch anyways.

Yeah, that's what I'm going to do.

I'm not panicking, as much as just asking you guys what your thoughts on this situation.

I'm not planning on trading away a stud player JUST to get a good closer either....

I appreciate the thoughts.

[Mithrandir]

In my 13 team 5x5 league the winning team usually has around 81-82% of the total points available if a team won all categories. So with 13 teams this year and 10 categories that's 130 points. 130 x .82 = 107 points. Punting a category would mean winning team would need about 106 points in the other 9 categories or an average of 2nd place finish in each category. That's damn hard to do.

[Mithrandir]

We have one guy who punts saves every year, has never won, and hasn't finished in the money since 2000. Two years ago, he executed the strategy perfectly -- last in saves, first in wins, first in Ks -- and still finished out of the money.

It doesn't help, of course, that he never trades and rarely ever uses FAAB after the first bidding period, but it indicates to me that you have to be really attentive and good at in-season moves in order to pull it off.

Oddly, this year he bought two closers, by accident. He got caught bidding up Papelbon (exclaiming "Shit!" after the sale was announced) and then decided to bid on and bid up every subsequent closer thrown out, eventually getting Cody Allen for 1 unit less than what I had paid for Kimbrel early in the auction. And right now, he's in first place.

My league has an owner like that too. Never seems to get any closers or he gets one which is pretty useless. He has been in the money once in about 9 years and never sniffed the title.

[revo]

So, my question is: Is it worth for just ONE stat basically?

I've heard of "punting saves" and I'm thinking it makes sense.

Anyone ever punt saves and win?

The problem with punting saves is that you're using those slots for additional starting pitchers who will assuredly raise your WHIP and ERA unless you hit the jackpot with them. The rise in ERA/WHIP will cost you a similar amount of roto points from the gain in Ks/Ws, and then there's the entire loss of a category.

So as JC mentioned, you need to nail your SPs, and if you're punting in-season as opposed to as a pre-draft strategy, I'm not sure you'll be able to land the quality SPs you'll need.

I'd wait on dealing your closers, because once you make that call, there's no going back.

[swampdragon]

many moons ago I won an NL only league with no closers
BUT
I had ALL of the right 8th 8th inning guys and these RPs had microscopic ratios, Ks and got a couple of handfuls of vulture saves

[Gregg]

There is punting and there is punting. I believe it is almost impossible to win by totally punting a category. Totally punting is zero points.

If you have some points, you can make later season trades and make up some points on others who are not wanting to pay for their closers.