RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Opening Week" Version)

[rhd]

Here's the latest list. I'll try to do writeups.

A little different on the eligibility requirements this time. Those players who had <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP prior to opening day are eligible. This means that Buxton still appears even tho he's exceeded the # of ABs now. Amateurs, unsigned draftees and foreign players are eligible. Relievers are eligible as long as they dont have >50 IP. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), and actual closers are upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

In addition to posting the list here, I've created a new Google Doc that has the list. Link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sOfbGus4PT5ka3zgilOYBAeLEJfVuXevtUyI2bRWUqk/edit#gid=693712161

I also created an editable copy of the list. Link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KLFf4N8Dz8x62BPl-6_G7PMnkTZpRCeidklKXE3cj3U/edit#gid=693712161

Let me know if you have any problems w these.

Rank Name Pos Org +/- Prev
1 Corey Seager SS LAD 0 1
2 Byron Buxton OF Min 0 2
3 Yoan (Johan) Moncada 2B Bos 0 3
4 Lucas Giolito SP Was 0 4
5 Julio Urias SP LAD 0 5
6 J.P. (John Paul) Crawford SS Phi 0 6
7 Trea Turner SS Was 2 9
8 Orlando Arcia SS Mil 14 22
9 Tyler Glasnow SP Pit -2 7
10 Joey Gallo 3B Tex -2 8
11 Trevor Story SS Col 52 63
12 Steve Matz SP NYM -2 10
13 Alex Reyes SP StL -2 11
14 Shohei Otani SP Japan -2 12
15 Yulieski Gurriel 3B FA-Cuba -2 13
16 Jorge Mateo SS NYY 4 20
17 Dansby Swanson SS Atl -3 14
18 Bradley Zimmer OF Cle -2 16
19 Lewis Brinson OF Tex -1 18
20 Nomar Mazara OF Tex -1 19
21 Brendan Rodgers SS Col -6 15
22 Andrew Benintendi OF Bos -1 21
23 A.J. Reed 1B Hou -6 17
24 Manuel Margot OF SD -1 23
25 Alex Bregman SS Hou -1 24
26 Franklin Barreto 3B Oak -1 25
27 Rafael Devers 3B Bos -1 26
28 Blake Snell SP TB -1 27
29 Jose Orlando (J.O.) Berrios SP Min -1 28
30 Jose De Leon SP LAD 0 30
31 Anderson Espinoza SP Bos -2 29
32 Sean Newcomb SP Atl -1 31
33 Jose Peraza OF Cin -1 32
34 Max Kepler OF Min -1 33
35 Brett Phillips OF Mil -1 34
36 Tim Anderson SS CHW -1 35
37 Clint Frazier OF Cle -1 36
38 Victor Robles OF Was -1 37
39 Anthony Alford OF Tor -1 38
40 Austin Meadows OF Pit -1 39
41 Nick Williams OF Phi -1 40
42 David Dahl OF Col -1 41
43 Gleyber Torres SS CHC 5 48
44 Jesse Winker OF Cin -1 43
45 Aaron Judge OF NYY -1 44
46 Ryan McMahon 3B Col -1 45
47 Josh Bell 1B Pit -1 46
48 Robert Stephenson SP Cin -1 47
49 Ozhaino Albies SS Atl 0 49
50 Hector Olivera OF Atl 1 51
51 Byung-Ho Park 1B Min 6 57
52 Kenta Maeda SP LAD 6 58
53 Corey Ray OF College 92 145
54 Jason Groome SP HS 90 144
55 Alfredo Despaigne OF Cuba -5 50
56 Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi SS KC -4 52
57 Brent Honeywell SP TB -15 42
58 Trenton Clark OF Mil -5 53
59 Kyle Tucker OF Hou -5 54
60 Archie Bradley SP Ari -5 55
61 Francis Martes SP Hou -5 56
62 Sean Manaea SP Oak -2 60
63 Michael Fulmer SP Det -4 59
64 Aaron Blair SP Atl -2 62
65 Jorge Lopez SP Mil -4 61
66 Cody Bellinger 1B LAD 18 84
67 Hunter Renfroe OF SD -3 64
68 Javier Guerra SS SD 3 71
69 Bobby Bradley 1B Cle 19 88
70 Nick Gordon SS Min -5 65
71 Ian Happ OF CHC -5 66
72 Dazmon Cameron OF Hou -5 67
73 Derek Fisher OF Hou -4 69
74 Lourdes Gurriel SS FA-Cuba -4 70
75 Cody Reed SP Cin 3 78
76 Grant Holmes SP LAD 3 79
77 Jonathan Gray SP Col -4 73
78 Raimel Tapia OF Col -4 74
79 Tyler White 1B Hou NA NR
80 Mallex Smith OF Atl -5 75
81 Roman Quinn OF Phi -5 76
82 Willy Adames SS TB -5 77
83 Luis Ortiz SP Tex -3 80
84 Dillon Tate SP Tex -3 81
85 Amir Garrett SP Cin -2 83
86 Albert Almora OF CHC -1 85
87 Alen Hanson 2B Pit 31 118
88 Matt Olson 1B Oak -2 86
89 Renato Nunez 3B Oak -2 87
90 Drew Jackson SS Sea 0 90
91 Eric Jenkins OF Tex 0 91
92 Christian Arroyo SS SF 6 98
93 Alex Verdugo OF LAD 2 95
94 Harold Ramirez OF Pit 3 97
95 Forrest Wall 2B Col 4 99
96 Amed Rosario SS NYM 7 103
97 Jake Bauers OF TB 18 115
98 Jake (Aaron) Thompson SP Phi -2 96
99 Jameson Taillon SP Pit 6 105
100 Carson Fulmer SP CHW -18 82
101 Kolby Allard SP Atl 0 101
102 Cornelius Randolph OF Phi -2 100
103 Brandon Drury 3B Ari 19 122
104 Jose Miguel Fernandez 2B FA -11 93
105 Mark Appel SP Phi -1 104
106 Kyle Zimmer SP KC 0 106
107 Dylan Bundy SP Bal 0 107
108 Reynaldo Lopez SP Was 0 108
109 Matt Chapman 3B Oak 5 114
110 Dominic Smith 1B NYM -1 109
111 Braden Shipley SP Ari 0 111
112 Hunter Harvey SP Bal 0 112
113 Billy McKinney OF CHC -3 110
114 Alex Jackson OF Sea -25 89
115 Max White OF Col -23 92
116 Ruddy Giron SS SD -48 68
117 Chad Pinder SS Oak -4 113
118 Socrates Brito OF Ari NA NR
119 Tyler Naquin OF Cle NA NR
120 Gary Sanchez C NYY 12 132
121 Austin Riley 3B Atl -4 117
122 Jomar Reyes 3B Bal -6 116
123 Tyler O'Neill OF Sea 4 127
124 Domingo Acevedo SP NYY 11 135
125 Brady Aiken SP Cle 8 133
126 David Paulino SP Hou 4 130
127 Touki Toussaint SP Atl -25 102
128 Tyler Jay SP Min NA NR
129 Jorge Polanco SS Min -5 124
130 Eric Fedde SP Was 1 131
131 Joe Musgrove SP Hou -2 129
132 Taylor Guerrieri SP TB 7 139
133 Justus Sheffield SP Cle 1 134
134 Gavin Cecchini SS NYM -11 123
135 Scott Schebler OF Cin NA NR
136 Trayce Thompson OF LAD NA NR
137 Travis Jankowski OF SD -17 120
138 John Lamb SP Cin NA NR
139 Vladimir Guerrero 3B Tor NA NR
140 Lucius Fox SS SF 1 141
141 Nick Senzel 3B College NA NR
142 Blake Rutherford OF HS NA NR
143 Delvin Perez SS HS 4 147
144 Kyle Lewis OF College NA NR
145 Buddy Reed OF College 1 146
146 A.J. Puk SP College -4 142
147 Riley Pint SP HS NA NR
148 Guillermo Heredia OF Sea -54 94
149 Jorge Ona OF FA-Cuba -1 148
150 Jeff Hoffman SP Col 0 150

Players removed because of exceeding of eligibility requirements (0):

Eligibles that dropped off (12):
H Kim (#72), M Reed (#119), D Sweeney (#121), D Lee (#125), M Almonte (#126), M Kopech (#128), F Montas (#136), M Feliz (#137), S Reid-Foley (#138), J Kaprielian (#140), A Hansen (#143), R Arozarena (#149)

New additions (12):
T White, S Brito, T Naquin, T Jay (back on), S Schebler, T Thompson, J Lamb (back on), V Guerrero, N Senzel, B Rutherford, K Lewis, R Pint

As always, comments are not only welcome but encouraged. Enjoy!

[Sharky]

Fun! Thanks for posting, rhd!

[onejayhawk]

Cool.

I could make a pun on Story's name, but every has already seen one. Is he the fastest riser of recent memory? What impact is his success like to have on Rodgers?

J

[Sharky]

Surprised to see Gleyber Torres move up but not some of the guys around him like Albies (who had a huge showing in spring training). Will be great to read your write-ups as always.

[Judge Jude]

players were picked in this order in my draft yesterday, with rhd ranking on left (all of the top 60 NLers are gone)

32 Sean Newcomb, Braves SP
66 Cody Bellinger, Dodgers 1B
-- Austin Voth, Nationals SP
24 Manuel Margot, Padres OF
92 Cristian Arroyo, Giants SS
38 Victor Robles, Nationals OF
101 Kolby Allard, Braves SP
-- Zach Godley, Diamondbacks SP
-- Wilson Contreras Cubs C
-- Brock Stassi, Phillies 1B
35 Brett Phillips, Brewers OF
30 Jose De Leon, Dodgers SP MY PICK at 12, but 2nd-best on this list
-- Jeff Hoffman, Rockies SP
49 Ozzie Albies, Braves MI
110 Dominic Smith, Mets 1B
76 Grant Holmes, Dodgers SP
41 Nick Williams, Phillies OF MY PICK at 17, but 5th-best on this list
-- Zach Davies, Brewers SP
134 Gavin Cecchini, Mets SS
-- Tom Murphy, Rockies C
68 Javier Guerra, Padres SS
-- Jorge Alfaro, Phillies C
98 Jake Thompson, Phillies SP
-- Isan Diaz, Brewers SS

[Hornsby]

Just an FYI, Vladdy Jr is an OFer, not a 1st baseman.

[Onions]

Just an FYI, Vladdy Jr is an OFer, not a 1st baseman.

Interestingly enough, I believe Toronto is working with Vlad Jr. at 3B. No idea if he's able to learn the position, but would be a bump to potential value if he does.

[onejayhawk]

Any comments concerning the near future of Aledmys Diaz or Jorge Polanco? How about next five years?

J

[rhd]

Cool.

I could make a pun on Story's name, but every has already seen one. Is he the fastest riser of recent memory? What impact is his success like to have on Rodgers?

J

Thanx fo the response, J. Sorry I'm so late in replying.

There have been other players that have risen more quickly than Story. Getting a regular MLB gig and doing well will do that. Dont know who off the top of my head.

I dont think Story will have any impact on Rodgers other than someone switching positions. IMO, Story projects to be "only" a solid regular whereas Rodgers is a potential AS. I dont know who moves where but the Rockies should have plenty of time to sort things out before Rodgers is ready.

[rhd]

Surprised to see Gleyber Torres move up but not some of the guys around him like Albies (who had a huge showing in spring training). Will be great to read your write-ups as always.

Thanx as always for the response, Sharky. Sorry my reply is so late.

Good point. I think I had Torres higher because BA's rpt says he's a potential 5-tool player if his power develops, whereas Albies doesnt project for much power. But Albies has had a great start to 2016 and he looks like he could arrive in MLB much sooner than Torres, perhaps later this year (he was just promoted to AAA). So now I've moved him up a little, rt in front of Torres.

[rhd]

Any comments concerning the near future of Aledmys Diaz or Jorge Polanco? How about next five years?

J

Thanx for another response, J.

I've changed my thinking a bit about Diaz now. I didnt think he projected to be a significant MLB contributor long-term but now I think he could be a t least a super-utility guy. He wont prevent Peralta from re-assuming the everyday SS role but he should continue to get playing time somewhere as long as he keeps hitting, perhaps at 2B. His BABIP so far is .400 so he's due for a regression but he's not striking out and he's hit so well that even w a more normal BABIP he still could be quite productive. Only time will tell but I've included him in my top 150 for the brief time he remains eligible (#134). That should give you an indication of how valuable I think he'll be over the longer term.

I also expect Polanco to be at least a good utility player over the long term w a decent chance to be a regular. There doesnt seem to be regular playing time for him now in Minny but he could force his way into a regular SS gig if he develops. According to BA's reports, both he and Diaz seem a little fringy for SS and each projects better at 2B, which is more problematic for Polanco w Dozier entrenched at 2B. Long-term I think their value is similar but obviously I'd take Diaz for the short-term.

[Sour Masher]

I wanted to put a couple of young arms on everyone's radar as players to watch, and maybe get RHD's take on them: Mitch Keller and Cody Reed (Arizona) have had video game stat lines in A ball this year. Hard to get too excited about SSS A ball stats, but in a sea of impressive starts to the season, they stand out. Both have sub 1 eras, crazy high K rates, and don't walk anyone (Keller has 4 on the year, and Reed has zero to go with his 31 Ks),

Keller looks to be a fairly traditional prospect, but I don't know what to make of Reed, as his funky delivery and the way he hides the ball may be inflating his stats in a way that isn't maintainable as he rises.

[wannabegriffey]

Any opinions regarding andy ibanez tex ?

[Sour Masher]

Raul Mondesi, Jr. suspended for 50 games for PEDs. Apparently he gets a shorter suspension because he was able to show that he ingested the banned substance when he took some cold medicine.

This case seems to be be accidental, so it is a shame--Mondesi was finally given a chance to repeat a level and was starting to hit. I still think he has a fairly bright future.

[Sour Masher]

Another riser to warch--Harrison Bader. Looking like a top 100 prospect.